One more tidbit: A conviction in the hush money trial matters to 36% of voters. 15% of voters actually would be more likely to vote for him, but they're probably already Trump voters. 21% of voters would be less likely to vote for him, and it's likely they are mostly swing voters. So if Quinnipiac is right the election probably moves to the Biden +3 or Biden +6 range with a Trump conviction (which is in line with other polling).
There is very little chance he will be convicted at the end of the appellate process in this case for a multitude of reasons, but I would not be entirely certain he won't be at the trial court level. The NYC juries aren't inclined to like him, and his legal strategy hasn't really endeared him. Since the approach seems to be to play to the media at the trial court and then to let his lawyers run real arguments at appeal. Which is why he almost got into serious problems with the Trump Org case.
