Will Trump be jailed in NY for violating his gag order?

[Dan the Roman]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

[Dan the Roman]

I don't see it. I don't think he will ever be jailed, even if he loses the election and gets convicted in one of the other criminal trials. House arrest seems more likely given his age and that he's entitled of Secret Service protection. And I'd say that would be appropriate.

At a certain point, there is the embarrassment of him either trying to force a governor to resist an extradition request or going abroad. At that point, he isn't relevant if he lost, except he becomes a way any country on the planet can throw domestic criticisms back in Washington's face for having driven an opposition leader into exile. 

Does the Biden Administration really want him in Saudi Arabia, Hungary, or Mexico(yeah he could do Russia, but I think the Gulf or hanging with AMLO are the most likely in current circumstances.)

He'd have a very difficult time getting to any of those countries unless he managed to get an unauthorized ship to Mexico that wasn't intercepted by the Coast Guard.

He just gets on someone's private jet. Or goes to a consulate. But that(and AMLO repeatedly attacking the prosecution process) is why I think Mexico is an underrated possibility.

It also depends on how much Biden would want to stop him. Like I know there is the "procedure" and all, but that NSC Principals meeting would be tense when they decide whether they want to let him escape or take the hot potato of jailing him.

[Dan the Roman]

Here's another logistics issue with Trump fleeing: The Secret Service. They don't work "for Trump", and would be obligated to report any attempts by Trump to flee.

Sure a former President can waive SS protection, as Nixon did, but I imagine the process is a bit more complex than Trump just telling his SS detail to go home. And if Trump did try to weasel out of having SS detail that would set off alarms and I have little doubt there'd be other law enforcement surveillance of him.

He probably only flees if people decide they want to let him. But if, say, NYS orders him to report for imprisonment during the Campaign and he announces a tour of Europe, the Middle East or South America at the invitation of local governments? Does Biden block him from going?

You are correct however. The Secret Service aspect means this is unique because there will come a point where Biden and his team will have to make a policy decision about how they want this to go. At the very least because no one lower is going to want to take the fall for it in the event things go badly.

I mean that's all out the window if you think Trump would voluntarily serve time but nothing in his history makes it likely he would chose that path over maximizing the damage inflicted on Biden and the country. At the very least I am certain he will try and screw over DeSantis by forcing him to either block the arrest or take the fall for failing to do so.

Trump under house arrest in Palm Beach is the best option for most actors, but it requires a lot of people, including Trump to play along.