Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Dan the Roman]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

Does Trumpkin know that Virginia is an extremely pro-choice state? Why would he think this is a winning message, abortion rights are an extremely important issue to many Virginians.

This is not a message designed to appeal to hardcore Democratic partisans on an obscure election forum or single-issue pro-choice voters who favor zero restrictions on abortion whatsoever. If anyone sees the message he’s pushing and comes to the conclusion that it’s typical of a candidate who is "trying to lose," they have no idea what they’re talking about and are forcing their bias on us. The editorializing of the "news" in this thread is tiresome — believe it or not, not everything is actually good news for your party.

Politically Youngkin clearly should say he would veto the Texas law if it came across his desk. It is a free promise. He can dodge abortion entirely and say he dislikes private enforcement, then turn it around and make it about covid restrictions and mask mandates and trans sports. Yet he won't. He won't because he can't. And the reason why he can't is the reason why it is hard, perhaps even impossible for any Republican to win in Virginia today.

The real problem is the same one the Colorado GOP has. Unlike MA or VT there is still enough of a genuine Republican base in the state that it is impossible for anyone running as a Republican not to be Pro-Life, not in a "abortion should be generally illegal" way as they might have been able to do in the 1990s, but at most in a "abortion should only be for rape, incest, or life of the mother. I don't think birth control should be easily available". In effect, on a scale of 1 to 10, the GOP can no longer run statewide candidates who are any less than an 8. That is the problem in Virginia.

I doubt Youngkin personally is hardcore restrictionist on abortion(which I think is a better standard than pro-life. It is really, what are you in favor of doing about it?) But no GOP candidate for governor even in a Biden +10 state can afford to say they would veto the Texas law, which probably has 30% support in Virginia. But if he did, his base would revolt.

[Dan the Roman]

Is he trying to lose?

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1433187809368723456

Does Trumpkin know that Virginia is an extremely pro-choice state? Why would he think this is a winning message, abortion rights are an extremely important issue to many Virginians.

This is not a message designed to appeal to hardcore Democratic partisans on an obscure election forum or single-issue pro-choice voters who favor zero restrictions on abortion whatsoever. If anyone sees the message he’s pushing and comes to the conclusion that it’s typical of a candidate who is "trying to lose," they have no idea what they’re talking about and are forcing their bias on us. The editorializing of the "news" in this thread is tiresome — believe it or not, not everything is actually good news for your party.

Politically Youngkin clearly should say he would veto the Texas law if it came across his desk. It is a free promise. He can dodge abortion entirely and say he dislikes private enforcement, then turn it around and make it about covid restrictions and mask mandates and trans sports. Yet he won't. He won't because he can't. And the reason why he can't is the reason why it is hard, perhaps even impossible for any Republican to win in Virginia today.

The real problem is the same one the Colorado GOP has. Unlike MA or VT there is still enough of a genuine Republican base in the state that it is impossible for anyone running as a Republican not to be Pro-Life, not in a "abortion should be generally illegal" way as they might have been able to do in the 1990s, but at most in a "abortion should only be for rape, incest, or life of the mother. I don't think birth control should be easily available". In effect, on a scale of 1 to 10, the GOP can no longer run statewide candidates who are any less than an 8. That is the problem in Virginia which is probably a 4/10.

I doubt Youngkin personally is hardcore restrictionist on abortion(which I think is a better standard than pro-life. It is really, what are you in favor of doing about it?) But no GOP candidate for governor even in a Biden +10 state can afford to say they would veto the Texas law, which probably has 30% support in Virginia. But if he did, his base would revolt.

[Dan the Roman]

Hot take: This is a sleeper race, and Youngkin has about a 30% chance of winning. We've barely goten any polling, and what we do have are Youngkin internals. McAuliffe hasn't released any internals, which is a sign of weakness.

Honest question: Why are you how you are?

I'm simply pointing out that the fact that McAuliffe hasn't released any internals speaks volumes as to the state of this race.

He fundraised off the Youngkin internal showing him down 2. I think they probably do, they probably show a 3-4% lead and there is nothing to gain from that. You have Emerson for that.

Yes if they showed a 12% lead they would release them, but this is not a 12% raise. It might well wind up being a 7-8% one because everyone's internals are off, and I think there is as much chance of that than a Youngkin win as I suspect after 2013 Ds are being very conservative with their sample.

But all indications - public polls, R internals, Youngkin massaged ones, Tmac silence indicates actual polls are showing the same thing. About a 3% Tmac lead, with Youngkin at 46-48% and Tmac at 48-51%.

[Dan the Roman]

I think tossup makes sense in terms of probabilities of outcomes but not probabilities of margins. IMHO we do not really know.

My impression is that almost all reliable polling, private, public internal points to around a 3% Tmac lead with TMAC at 48%-51% and Youngkin at 46%-48%. Absent one weird likely voter screen and random polls with candidates in the 30s that is what everything shows. Now what we need to do is to distinguish between what the data shows and what everyone involved thinks. Because there is this weird view insiders have some sort of secret knowledge. They do not. They have access to what other insiders and campaigns think but in this case like many others, those folks themselves don't actually know.

There are basically three different clusters of possible results

48-47% Youngkin Plurality - Basically Democratic nightmare. Non-white turnout craters, and Youngkin gets enough of a margin in Virginia beach and outer NoVA to sneak in a win. In this scenario GOP likely takes back HOD and possibly all three statewide races.

50-47% TMAC win - the outcome polling points to. I actually think this is the least likely. It is a median outcome in which most major uncertainties work out in a manner which cancels each other out. It is showing up in polling because everyone is being ultra cautious. Youngkin and R groups do not want to assume miracles so they model the electorate they think they can get which will make them competitive rather than what they hope for. Democrats are modeling the electorate they worry about and assume traditional dropoff. In effect everyone is polling for 2013. If it is 2013 this will be the result. But I am unsure it will be 2013 and I don't think either campaign believes it will be. In 2017 everyone did this as well which is one reason Northam was so lowballed.

52-46% TmAc - This is the CA outcome. It sees Ds hold HOD and all three statewide races. This indicates that upscale whites and Asians tempted by CRT stuff and pissed off at how leftwing the new D trifecta went come home massively due to fear the GOP has been taken over by anti-vax, anti-restrictionist, anti-mask folks.

If I had to guess we will get either #1 or #3, and in that sense it is a tossup. But there are a couple of moving pieces

1. Asians - I think this is the factor which really isn't considered enough. The 2020 census showed 8.8% of VA residents are now Asian American. They are the fasting growing demographic. I bring this up because a lot of the focus on CRT/School boards in the spring was about Asian parents being upset about attacks on merit based policies. But what we have seen in California and Canada is whatever their issues with the identity politics Left, Asians will not in the age of Covid vote for anti-restrictions or perceived anti-Vaccine parties.  There is a reason Youngkin is being hammered on that. If Asians are 7-8% of the electorate and vote 75%-80% D that is already a huge problem because of

2. College educated women - This is another group which may have issues with a multitude of Democratic policies and candidates but seem to have decided they will never vote for the current GOP. Youngkin's descent into generic R indicates he knows any chance of gains here is long gone and expects to be destroyed.

Both of these groups are now voting if anything more Democratic than in 2020 so far in 2021 that means any dropoff has to come from

African Americans
Hispanics
College White Men
Non College Whites

African Americans - this will largely be a turnout dropoff, will happen question is what degree

Hispanics - probably will be an R shift but Virginia is a state where Asians outnumber them, and are more likely to turnout and vote

College White men - what they do will determine this election. If they swing massively R then Youngkin has a chance. A marginal R swing means TmAc wins comfortably.

Non College Whites - Ds have been in free fall for some time and they may well have turnout issues.

Basically this election will come down to College White men. Youngkin probably needs Bush margins to have a shot.

[Dan the Roman]

apparently terry mcaulife had some gaffe tonight where he said he doesn't want parents being involved in decisions schools make or something.

who won the debate

IDK they both had stumbles-after stating he opposed COVID vaccine mandates, Youngkin was unable to respond coherently about how he would handle vaccines other than COVID that are already mandatory.  In response to a question about removing books from school libraries, McAuliffe said “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what to teach.”  Those are the clips that either side is promoting.

This is the correct line to take.

Yeah, how is this a gaffe? Pretty sure even most liberal minded folks hate it when karens try and tell the school and teachers what to do.

I don't know that it's a gaffe, but it's the kind of statement that could be rocket fuel for the GOP base.  Even if it doesn't hurt on net in VA, it would be very dangerous in a state closer to the national average.

It would have been highly damaging in June when parental control = ability to prevent nutty people from abolishing advanced placement courses and merit based policies.

But this fall parental control = GOP governors banning local parents from punishing the local anti-social road rage couple from forcing their kid to behave in class(ie, wear a mask) , and preventing them from requiring support staff to be vaccinated.

The only swing voters this issue was making headway on, largely Asian immigrants, upscale whites, some other immigrant professionals, are all hard-line covid restrictionists, and I suspect the slogan is now a serious liability.

The GOP allowed it to be identified with folks who are not even parents who are viewed unfavorably by 60% of actual parents.

There is a reason Youngkin has dropped all the education stuff lately. Because clearly they have polling that identifying him with it means identifying him with the belligerent old angry white folks who terrify the voters he needs.

[Dan the Roman]

I’m just not convinced abortion in general is some huge net loser for either party

The polling on abortion in America is incoherent

People want it legal, but they also have large margins want it restricted after a while

How can someone be “pro life”, but only after x weeks?

How can someone be “pro choice”, but oops, no choice allowed for you, young lady who is too far along in term

Doesn’t make sense

Dirty secret. Voters want nothing to happen on abortion. Ie. the vast majority of non hardcore partisans can "live" with the status quo.

They may prefer slight tweaks in one direction or another, and the restrictionists probably have a slight intuitive advantage here, but the impressions of the hardcore activists on both sides is so negative among those who don't care that any major moves are likely to annoy voters who resent the issue intruding.

I really think revulsion at Texas is less "abortion is a right" and more "what on earth are these people doing in government" and the harmful thing for Youngkin is the impression that all, or all GOP governors but Hogan, Dewine, and a handful in NE march in lockstep on everything these days - voting, abortion etc - which means it is hard for Youngkin to run against things that might genuinely be unpopular - CRT, declining standards, Trans students in sports, vaccine mandates - without instantly being associated with what those mean for every GOP governor and legislature in the country unless explicitly stated otherwise. Namely bizarre ham-fisted efforts to impose nonsense curriculum(Texas), empowering local viglantes(here is the overlap between Texas abortion/"parental rights" sloganeering), bans on local covid policies by counties and even private businesses, forcing your kid to go to school with the son of the local crazy anti-vaxxer despite being symptomatic and testing positive(Florida).

Youngkin tried to avoid either attaching himself to the Republican party nationally or breaking from it. But what happened in Texas and elsewhere has made it so anything short of openly breaking with it qualifies as attachment.

[Dan the Roman]

The virginia race (and other races at this point) are illustrating what is wrong with american politics. Things are way, WAY too nationalized. A truly intellectual voter wouldn't give 2 sh**ts about trump or biden in a gubernatorial race.

Whatever happened to the radical idea that your vote for governor should be determined by your VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR POLICIES.

It makes me so angry to hear rural VA voters in interviews cite "biden and the border" and urban frumpy, educated women cite "trump" when asked about their views of the VA race.

It is bad news, all around. State parties should be penalized and rewarded for how their state is doing, not for how the national parties are perceived. We are entering an era where state parties can drive their states into the ground with horrible policy and voters don't punish them because a vote for a local candidate of the opposing party is somehow seen as "voting for the national opposing party"

This needs to end, quickly. A pox on ANYONE who votes for youngkin solely because trump said so, or for mcauliffe because "i hate trump" '

it's lazy, it's not scholarly, and you sound like a low iq, social media addicted loser.

It used to not be this way, as late as 2014.

voters in louisiana had no problem voting D for governor after gop misrule

voters in maryland voted gop after dem misrule

voters in CT nearly elected gop governor

illinois elected gop governor

North carolina elected dem governor

it's f'n bs what is happening now.

Part of this is Youngkin's fault. Youngkin concluded he had too much to lose running as a Baker or Scott or Hogan.

The simple problem for Youngkin and for any Virginian who does not like CRT, feels that fear of causing offense means that anti-social behavior is being tolerated under the guise of tolerence, etc is that

80% of Virginia Republicans

Believe Trump won in 2020
(Even if they don't believe that the manipulations by the media re Russiagate/power of universities justify "rebalancing" the influence of urban voters by overturning the results)
Would ban vaccine mandates, with at least 60% wanting to ban private businesses
 Would support a Texas style law

The issue isn't whether Youngkin would like those things or not. He cannot oppose them because his voters want them. And therefore he cannot come out and say he would veto them if they crossed his desk. In turn, any voter who would like an option other than McAuliffe has to accept that Youngkin will be dependent upon and in thrall too hardcore MAGA Republicans regardless of whether he goes to bed at night wishing he could be campaigning with recently retired President Romney.

Those voters who are refusing to separate Youngkin from Trump are not wrong. Youngkin cannot separate himself. And there is zero reason to think he will be able to in office.

Youngkin may not be extreme. But he has proven consistently throughout this campaign that he is weak. Why should they expect him to even be a Mike Dewine in office? Why shouldn't they assume he isn't Abbott or Desantis?

[Dan the Roman]

I knew this forum was full of upper-class white college kids who don't have families but damn I was not expecting Terry's anti-parental involvement quote to be spun into a positive.

Those words mean different things to different people.

For Republican retirees and younger single activists, "parental rights" is a culture war fetish.
For Democrats it is January 6th protestors coming to their town.

For everyone in the middle, it is nightmare they wish would end. However genuine the anti-woke backlash, and all you have to do is look at the reaction to the pathetic attempts to cancel Chapelle to see there is the kindling for a real one, and a seismic one at that - the "parental rights movement" has been thoroughly hijacked by the usual suspects and is increasingly indistinguishable from the same people who did Tea Party/Birthirism stuff in 2009. In Northern VA it is literally the usual suspects, and it is just them because they have been allowed to scare everyone else off.

Democrats here are delusional to think this was not a real issue in the spring, is not still a real issue, and not one which will return if they do not deal with the underlying causes.

But Republicans are delusional not to realize that this was not tens of millions of Biden voting college educated liberal parents suddenly embracing all the shibboleths of talk radio. And that by adopting the imagery, slogans, and personalities of a media and language they associate with white trash, the entire movement and issue has been tarnished.

I have yet to see in any of the coverage or polling evidence that actual Biden voters are defecting over this stuff now. And why should they? Its been hijacked.

[Dan the Roman]

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1450830169460117506

What is a more typical PVI at this point? This sounds high.

Everyone is rushing. Really you only get useful data when you have turnout + makeup. In effect, if in 10 days we are at 950K+ and and perhaps 40%+ of the final electorate, we can begin to get minimums for things like turnout by education/race. But it is really early now.

Anything more is speculative. There is some stuff there but it is mostly

1. Appalachian post 2009 Rs do not care. Turnout in VA-9 and rural white areas is abysmal. Even by historic standards. Zero sign these Rs are engaged.
2. African American turnout seems to be "ok". By that I mean not good, but better than one would expect so far, and not falling back to 2010 or 2014 levels.
3. Hispanics arent voting at all

4. This looks to be a suburban election. By that, I mean the only people who seem particularly engaged are suburban voters.

#4 probably explains both campaigns. It is less they know what is happening specifically with those voters, and more they seem to be the only voters who care.

Also, I think Youngkin may have made a serious campaign blunder but it isn't the one everyone on this board thinks. I actually believe Youngkin has fallen victim to the desire of his DC based staffers to be lazy and not travel outside their comfort zone. They are running an NOVA campaign not because of some grand strategy, but because they don't want to travel too far or hang out in Appalachia and they have decided to come up with analysis about CRT etc to justify why NOVA is the key area. The thing is I am not sure it is. By that I mean even if the huge outpouring of effort makes a slight difference there, if they run no operation whatsoever in VA-9 no one else will. Those aren't historically GOP machine areas and if Youngkin isn't, Trump isn't on the ballot, CRT isn't going on in their schools, why are they going to vote?

Youngkin seems to be spending his whole campaign budget and GOTV operation on trying to turn 36%-45% Trump areas 44%-53%. He is spending from what I can see zero time or effort on turning out 75%+ Trump areas.

[Dan the Roman]

Youngkin potentially winning Democratic gloomism is probably the best possible narrative for the final nine days of early voting in NVA.

So I think the perception Youngkin is surging is going to dominate the final two weeks of this race, not the issues. And that means that while those issues may have driven swing voters to Youngkin, and I think red avatars here underestimated the degree of long-term partisan commitment some of those voters had, if there is a Democratic enthusiasm problem there is a good chance it will be solved in the next nine days. Or if it isn't we will know.

But if we start seeing 75K a day next week we will know something is happening.

[Dan the Roman]

Talk about gaffes, Youngkin's personal instinct is a "no" on same-sex marriage:

https://twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1451506339931463680

This is probably less of a gaffe than you think. I checked at least two recent polls about same-sex marriage and they asked if it should be legal, not whether they personally approve of it. Someone should run a more careful poll on this but I believe that the opinion "no I don't approve of same-sex marriage, however they should be legal" will have substantial support, and that's the view that Youngkin is expressing here.

As its not a live issue, anyone who cares about it abstractly is a hardcore partisan so it doesn't matter.

Though I suspect the bigger issue if it were to become one is that Youngkin is lying to pander and people come up with a ton of Carlyle woke pandering in with his signature. 

[Dan the Roman]

I just drove through some heavily Korean neighborhoods in Annandale (Fairfax County) on the way to a restaurant.

I have never seen such a high concentration of political signs in one place - literally every house had Youngkin signs up. My anecdotal conclusion is that NoVA Asians are breaking hard for Youngkin. It also feels like the Youngkin campaign is very well organized in the community.

TBH this is one of the more interesting anecdotal pieces of information. Asian voters strike me as a group where the test of global realignment versus campaign messaging will matter most. Looking at Canada and California, Asian voters, especially with degrees, seem to have moved strongly against parties perceived as weak on covid restrictions. Youngkin, for all his efforts to downplay it represents a party which cannot be described as anything other than "weak" on covid restrictions.

So if we have meta forces they should be trending left.

If they trend right, however, it indicates the Republican narrative that CRT/Education etc is resonating with them. That they dislike BLM activism and perceived Democratic weakness on the police.

It is also possible everyone on this thread is both right and wrong. There can be meta trends. But there can also be blips. Scott Brown winning was an ideological blip in MA. Not in a partisan sense, but in the sense that no one else seriously tried to put back together his coalition in MA. It                          was not replicable at all as opposed to merely not replicable successfully.

It is possible that the Gillespie coalition/campaign could win in a climate even if in the longrun it is not a viable coalition in VA

[Dan the Roman]

My pub leeker is visiting this weekend. I'll try to see if hes seen any new internals. Last week's was Youngkin +2 which is more likely than the Youngkin +8 Dem internal i was leaked last week.

 🙄

I didn't say i believed it but yeah it does exist.

I don't believe you that it exists.

Lol. Ok dude. But my source had no reason to lie to me and was very distressed.

Link to source?

Or are you just some random VA-CON poster on Atlas with no connections and no real add-on values, but are hiding behind sources which may or may not exist?

No reason to doubt, but any time on on an internet Forum when people claim they have "sources" without citing them gives me at least a reasonable assumption that facts are not real unless proved otherwise.

I have Facebook messenger receipts that reveal the identity of the person who wishes to remain anonymous. Maybe ill take the time to scramble the name and face but that does require effort. Fhtagn here could verify that I did in fact tell her the results last Friday well before the Fox Poll but I doubt thatd suffice.

I think you misunderstand.  I'm saying you're lying that you have a source that says that.

Whatever NPC.

TBH this sounds a lot like one of the three turnout models I know is being run. I mean I haven't seen the most recent set, but +8 would seem to be in the range of what I suspect they would show for the 2013 model.

People don't expect it, but my understanding is that all the trend lines are in freefall for Ds atm but neither side(at least Youngkin folks) fully buy it and think the media cycle is exaggerating the current narrative with response bias. But people are not wanting to say they are backing Tmac even if they still are. Dems definitely embarrassed at the state of the campaign.

[Dan the Roman]

It doesn't. And until anyone can provide proof that these random anecdotes of "my kids teacher was telling my child that white people are terrible!" are ever true, I don't believe them. Because even if something was brought up, there's no way that a public school teacher would say something like that.

Even in a world where this did happen, how is this in any way shape or form having to do with McAuliffe? I have no doubt that this person was looking for everyone reason to vote GOP, and I don't buy that he was a "Hilary-Biden" voter.

“Who are you going to believe, parents? Your own lying eyes and ears or me, a partisan poster on an obscure message board?”

It doesn’t matter what you think. Many of us have experienced this firsthand. You’re not making us forget it.

CRT as a fully formed Marxist theory does not exist. In fact, if schools actually properly taught Marx I have no doubt parents would have very different impressions. I taught history at an elite British boarding school(and I know Josh Hawley did nearby before me) and we both assigned Marx's 18th Brumaire of Louis Napoleon. No one had a problem with it because it is hilariously written and actually has some interesting things to say. And it roasts everyone.

The people complaining about discussions on slavery or actual pullitzer winning stuff are insane. But the ease with which a few usual suspects from the old evangelicals Ollie North home schooler days have made fools of themselves complete with a guest appearance by Dick Black has led Democrats to ignore a real issue;

What does exist is "woke corporate HR virtue signaling" which more or less involves the fact that showing you are part of the Acela elite requires showing familiarity with total garbage everyone knows is garbage. Much like everyone was forced to pretend in the 1990s that Rent was some sort of profound Shakespearian commentary on the human condition, now garbage from grifters like Kendi, Hannah-Jones etc is being pushed by people who if not for politics would never tough it because not only is it awful in terms of ideas but it is horribly written and argued.

The thing is anyone working in a corporate environment now is subjected to this garbage by HR. The idea the same garbage is being used to torture their kids is offensive and infuriating. And it is not political. Vast numbers of Democrats, in fact I would argue a large majority over 40 in the DC area, despise the HR garbage and mock it. So the idea they would like it bleeding into the schools is nonsense.

[Dan the Roman]

Interesting that it's the exact opposite pattern compared to the federal level.

Democrats lost 13 seats in 2001 even as Warner won because the GOP controlled redistricting.

The same was true in 2011.

2023 is the first election since 1999 conducted on a map the GOP didn't draw.

I mean yes we can argue on multiple curves, but if the GOP had a trifecta that drew the maps odds are the GOP would have gained 5-7 with these statewide results depending on how defensive the GOP wanted to be.