If Gingrich is the nominee, I could easily see enough seats shifting in New Hampshire for Democrats to retake control. Also, dont count out a shift in the Michigan House, where there have been some wild swings in the past. The Wisconsin Senate map actually isnt that bad for Democrats. If they win control in the early 2012 recalls, they will probably keep it. It mostly shored up GOP incumbents like Alberta Darling. Dems will probably gain seats in the Wisconsin House, but not control.
You know that the Republicans have a 3/4ths majority in NH, right? It is NH, but that still takes one heck of a wave to overcome.
Republicans will suffer massive losses in the State House. The current GOP legislative leadership is actually more unpopular than the Democrats were and massively over extended. Whether they lose control is another matter.
I think the most likely outcome is a loss of around 70 or so seats, for about a 221-179 margin, but with divided control a la 2005-2007.
The senate should be fine.
In Maine the GOP will lose the House, but with Romney they should hold the Senate.
What do you think the future of gay marriage is in NH? Repeal would get a majority in the legislature right now, but there are probably enough libertarian types to sustain Lynch's veto in the 2012 session. Do you think the state GOP will put it to a vote for campaigning purposes even if they can't get 2/3rds? It seems pretty obvious that the State House won't be veto-proof in 2013, so it may be their one chance to push it through. How do you feel about Democratic odds of either taking the State House or holding the governor's mansion? Is full GOP control to be expected in 2013?
The ideal situation for everyone(well for the GOP leadership, and Gay Marriage Supporters at least) would be to put it on the ballot, since polls show repeal losing by 30 points. Of course that would require a two-thirds vote which would require hard-core anti-gay marriage opponents/or gay marriage supporters to vote for such a compromise, and neither is willing to do so.
Repeal will probably fail to get 2/3rds this year. The big question is next year. If Romney is the nominee(looking less likely) and wins the state(also looking less likely) I can see a scenario where the GOP wins the GOV race 51-49 and ends ups 225-175 and 14-10 or so majorities int he legislature. Then it gets interesting if they can repeal it on a raw majority vote.
Gingrich will likely lose the state by at least 6 points though, and I don't see any of the B and C grade candidates on either side overcoming such a tailwind for Governor.
