Mr. Moderate's Gubernatorial Scorecard

[Dan the Roman]

ME and MA are mirrors of each other. In MA you have an unpopular Governor(who has improved lately but still loses every 2-way hypothetical by at least five points) being challenged by a Republican who is running a quiet campaign and a much louder independent. While Patrick is consistently ahead, evidence indicates that this is a bit misleading. He has less money than either Cahill or Baker, and Baker is still unknown to a third of the state. Furthermore there is a lot of evidence that the undecideds are undecided between his opponents, not between them and himself. If this race breaks, it will break late, as all MA Gov races(and statewide races generally have) since 1990. At this point Romney was behind in 2002, or was after the primaries. That said the nature of the state means that even if he loses, Patrick will lead the polls until near the end.

In Maine you have a weak Democrat who is 73, is raising a limited amount of money, and is a largely unknown 20-year legislator. The Republican is a tea-party favorite who supports creationism, and has gotten nothing but bad press since the primary. And you have two self-funding independents, the more prominent of whom will likely outspend both major party candidates combined.

The nature of the year, namely the consolidation of the Conservative vote and the chaos everywhere else, ensures that LePage will lead the race for most of the summer and fall. But he has lost support in every poll, falling from 43 to 39 in Rassmussen between June and July, and I suspect he will be down at least to 36, if not below in this week's poll. Furthermore, the bad press is not off the he's crazy variety. More of the he's an asshole variety(making fun of his opponent's age, when called whining about racism towards Franco-Canadians, and retreating when called out on it).

Again though, he will lead for a while simply because he will be the only candidate in the thirties. That said, this race is not about Libby Mitchell or even Eliot Cutler. Its about LePage, and as a consequence, third-party candidates will fade towards the end as one of them consolidates support. It just has yet to be decided if the Democrat is a third-party challenger or not.

The position of the Senators is also of interest. LePage's Campaign Manager was well-known to be posting on Conservative sites that his boss' victory would pave the way to a primary challenge. Both would like to see him lose, privately at least. Collins' whose Chief of Staff lost the primary, made a pro forma endorsement but has declined to campaign for him or cut an ad. Snowe has remained completely silent on who she is supporting. Their behavior does carry weight with moderates, and their lack of support cost Woodcock dearly in 2006 under similar circumstances making it alright for Republican legislators to back independent Barbara Merrill. By the same token, their active support helped preserve a gay rights law in 2005, and their neutrality may well have doomed gay marriage in 2009.