JLT's House Predictin' Thread 2010

[Dan the Roman]

As someone who promoted the race in the past, and thinks that some Republican representation would improve the delegation, I can't believe I am doing this, but under no circumstances should MA-10 be a pure toss-up. The seats dynamics leave it as probably one of the GOP's best chances in year for a congressional seat in the state, but the problem lies in the fact that both William Keating and Rob O'Leary are significantly stronger candidates than either Jeff Perry or Joe Malone. Keating is a former State Senator of one of the more Republican districts in the state, while Rob O'Leary represents the Perry's base area in the Cape. The Democrats both have COH advantages, with Keating having a nearly 3-1 lead over Perry, and 7-1 over Malone.

As for the Republicans, Malone is well, Malone with all the baggage that entails and looks likely to lose the primary in any case. Perry is pretty Conservative for a D+5 district even with all things being equal, but they are not. For the last few months he has been dogged in the media by a story that he looked on while a teenage girl was inappropriately strip searched by an officer under his command. It is unclear if the story has merit, but its dominating about half of the results on a Google news search and has reached politico.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&tbs=nws%3A1&q=jeff+perry+cape&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/39251.html

A Republican here needs to run a perfect campaign and face a flawed opponent. Neither of those seems likely at present. This is not to say that Perry can not win, but this seat probably will require a significant national and local wave at his back to do so.

[Dan the Roman]

The other thing to remember is that while on paper it is always the friendliest seat to national and statewide Republicans, its always been fools goal for the GOP at the congressional level, and over the last four decades they have probably gone after it more than any other seat in the state. They could never take down Studds after all his issues, and the 1996 open race was a 13 point route while Weld was winning the seat for senate. And the area has been a disaster area for the GOP in the legislature, as they have lost seat after seat that they have held since the Civil War in the last few years.

On paper given the national results this should be a close race. Given what the Cape GOP has been capable on the ground, it would be frankly surprising if either of their candidates managed to break 43%, much less win. The inverse might be MA-05 or even 06 where the local GOP is in a lot better shape.

[Dan the Roman]

What changes if you assume team GOP gets a ton of money in the next two months, as the sharks smell chum in the water? At the moment, independent expenditures can be unlimited per the SCOTUS decision.

The question to ask is whether outside of the Coal industry, is there a real desire to see the Republicans, or more specifically the current Republicans back in office. A lot of companies that normally lean GOP, say Wal-Mart for instance, benefited from the stimulus even if the economy of the whole did not, and we are past the point, illustrated by Stockman's NYT piece two weeks ago, where any corporate leaders think GOP economic plan, which seems to be to repeat Obama's stimulus feat, only with tax cuts targeted uselessly instead of spending.

I think Corporate America is probably unhappy with the Democrats, but its worth asking yourself how much they would be happy with the GOP in an ideological and inflexible mood. There is a general rule with companies. With exception of say Oil and mining, the larger they get, the more left-leaning they tend to be. Do you really think Micorsoft or Apple likes the Tea Party, or want what would be termed "Conservatives" in fly-over country? Rick Snyder and to a lesser extent Whitman, and Baker in MA would benefit from corporate money, but they are in state races. Do you really expect them to back Angle though? Given the change in the balance of power in the economy over the last two decades, I would not expect a general backing of the GOP at least this year.

Its always worth questioning whether large business interests have the interests of the business community as a whole. They clearly hate the new banking regulations, but again the stimulus was quite popular with many of them for the wrong reasons, and government subsidies for health-care are actually good for them as it saves them money. Its the ordinary tax payers who have to pick it up.

[Dan the Roman]

As I say, when it is viewed that a party seems poised to take power, the special interests run to get on the train before it leaves the station. It is about buying access; ideology is secondary for those who need to "manage" Washington to protect their bottom line.

But the GOP already in that respect is bought, and can be bought once they are in office. Keeping the Democrats bought and not heading off in a populist direction is far more important at this point. And Obama will still be in office for the next two years and potentially longer. So you will get some of that, but its not as if the current slate of GOP candidates is the party of big business especially in the tech or financial sectors.

Also I think there has been a difference here between "special interests" ie. those lobbying because they want something direct, ie. resource extraction firms, defense contractors, and corporate America as a whole. The first group will dump a lot of money for the GOP. The latter are geographical in their support anyway, and need to stay on good terms with the Administration. Neither of the two are the ones with lots of cash hanging around, as most of them have been losing money. The people with a ton of excess cash, the financial and tech sectors, have not been particularly pro-Republican except for the brief period when they had total power in 2004 and looked like they would keep it. Its why I thought the decision would have a greater impact on the internal dynamics of the Democratic party than on partisan politics. The old standbys in the Chamber just don't control a majority of the cash anymore, and ironically Citizens United weakens the Chamber vis-e-ve its individual members.

The big impact is likely to be on issues like Prop 8 where I would not be surprised to see say Microsoft dump millions into an effort to beat a Washington equivalent. Eminent domain as well. The recent California Proposition on Car Insurance is probably another example of the type of issue where it will be felt.

[Dan the Roman]

How did the primary shift MA-10? The far more conservative candidate won the Republican nomination if I am reading stuff right.

A large margin of victory for Perry on an unprecedented GOP turnout. Add in that the Democrats got the worst possible geographical showdown(a Boston area Dem v. a Cape Republican) albeit with a marginally better candidate, and Perry is in much better shape than he looked a month ago. Also, Perry's money issues should disappear and Baker will do well there. I might tip it slightly to him. Of course I would put his odds of being there in 2013 on a level with Cao's.