Monmouth is changing, though. It's become even more wealthy exurban, and the downscale areas have shrunk. Obama could still win if he massively increases his margin in Middletown and the rest of the northern coast, but, since there's no serious campaign in NJ, I doubt that happens.
Ok. When I was a kid, a lot of the upscale parts of Monmouth County were populated by the Jewish diaspora from New York, much as in Middlesex County. This is a group that swung quite a bit from 2000 to 2004, with 2000 easily a high-water mark. I'm not sure how far they'll swing back in 2008, but it helps that Palin is pushing all of the same buttons that Bush did on them.
On a more general note, the Census indicates that Monmouth is growing more slowly than the state as a whole, 2000-2006. The Asian population is significantly smaller than it is in Somerset, Mercer, or Middlesex Counties. Those two facts would seem to be hard to square with the idea of its growing more affluent via exurban growth, but you know more than I do.
