Yes, it always helps to have the local people on the ground. Obama relying on people outside of the area shows the obvious disconnect. Plenty of Democratic commiteepeople want nothing to do with Obama and that includes not voting for him and, in some situations, helping McCain.
I would never dispute your statements about what you've seen and heard. I am sure that there are local Democratic leaders in Northeast (sorry) Philly who decided earlier in the year not to help the Obama campaign, probably hoping to tip the state to McCain if the race were close and they got backup from voters, and who as of now see no reason to change their minds even though McCain won't win the state, so are sitting on their hands. So Obama's bringing his own people in.
I've seen this dynamic in statewide races in Massachusetts, so I won't deny it. Some times it works, as in '98. Some times it never gets off the ground, as in '06.
The question is, and I think the question always has been when you've mentioned the political situation in NE Philly, so what? How many votes are we talking about here, total? Can you put a number on it?
We've got the polls. I think the fact that these people aren't going public with their lack of support, and that this guy is disappointed more people aren't like your grandmother, indicates that the machine is not functioning the way a machine moved in the 1950s in Chicago, where it could really deliver the votes. The biggest thing these guys can do is sit on their hands and quietly support McCain.
As you've said, the result is that Obama has had to invest extra resources in the area and make an end run around the establishment. This is not ideal. In the long run, though, I have to say, big whoop. It's still better than making no contacts at all. Obama does not lack for money and he absolutely does not lack for volunteers from the northeast who need somewhere useful to go. These people are going to door-to-door and make the case for Obama.
If all of the voters there are in touch with the organization and against Obama, we'll see that on Election Day. However, I think that it takes a leap of faith to go from this local political scrum you're discussing to actual banked votes for McCain over Obama beyond what the polls are showing.
I'd like to hear you put a number on this, based on the Kerry totals. How much is Obama going to underperform Kerry in Northeast Philly in terms of a winning margin? What wards define northeast Philly, what were the numbers in '04, and what is your best guess how they will turn out in '08? I'm really curious, sincerely, because you know the area and all I have is my bird's eye view of state polls and whatever I can look up in an almanac for city-wide results.
