FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Obama in command

[Brittain33]

I hope his campaign is smart enough to not become fixated on Florida. There are many easier routes to victory.

The problem in 2004 was that Kerry should have left FL. 

I don't think any changes in state targeting would have made a difference in 2004. As it was, he camped out in Ohio and targeted Colorado late in the game and lost both.

[Brittain33]

This looks good, but Florida seems a little off.

Florida is a weird and volatile state. I've always been surprised that people felt they had a handle on it and were absolutely certain that Obama had no chance here... that counted on a) 2004 conditions continuing (they haven't) and b) the Clinton supporters, who dominate the Democratic vote in this state, were not going to support Obama.

The state is in an economic meltdown. Only Arizona and Nevada come close to matching it. That throws everything up in the air. It's not good for Republicans when a lot of people who formerly felt comfortable and secure in their income and property no longer feel that way.

[Brittain33]

Are we done considering Quinnipiac a top pollster? These numbers are just ridiculous even if Obama is leading.

Why are they ridiculous? Florida was exactly even in 2000, and less than R+3 in 2004. If Obama's leading by 6 nationwide post-nomination-bump, unless Florida is trending significantly more Republican than the rest of the country this year, this is perfectly reasonable.

[Brittain33]

And up twelve in PA and leading by six in OH? The numbers seem a bit inflated.

The reason people felt PA and OH were close was because they felt that Clinton voters wouldn't support Obama. These polls numbers are consistent with Democrats coming back to support Obama and Independents leaning that way, which was always a possibility given the terrible national environment for McCain and Republicans in general and the fact that if race weren't in the equation, people would have shunted those states into the lean or likely Democratic column at the start of the election.

I don't know if these numbers are realistic for Election Day, but they ring true to me for an Obama bump that may be temporary with Democratic party unity.

[Brittain33]

You're really kidding yourself if you think these numbers are going to stick.

I didn't say they were going to, or even likely to. I would be foolish to completely rule out the possibility, but I acknowledge this is a bump.

If it isn't going to stick, then isn't it reasonable to say Obama is up 12 now and would win in the end by 5-6 points?

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Look at all the other state polls we've got the last few days. With a few notable exception, they all show a big lurch to one side. The mid-point has shifted. Pennsylvania has always been lean Democratic, all else being equal, and if the country moves to lean/likely Democratic for the time being that makes 12 points reasonable.

This country is really, really ready for change, and if enough people think Obama is credible, he can reap big rewards. The "if" was always the problem.

Again, this is now, when Obama's having a bump from winning the nomination. I recognize there will be more shifts in the future.

[Brittain33]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

[Brittain33]

Or if he taps into the traditionally blue collar ethnic Catholic voters in areas like mine. Believe me, these people are not happy with Obama as the nominee.

Tell me, are conservatives and evangelicals in Pennsylvania head over heels for McCain? I recall not long ago he was widely disliked in the party...

McCain has fewer problems with that faction than Obama does with the group I mentioned.

What's your basis for saying that?