OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Brittain33]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

I stand by Likely R. You will never see Republicans pour $28m into Wyoming or Idaho, much less polls as late as October showing a Dem lead.

We shouldn’t expect Ryan to win but we shouldn’t be surprised if he does.

[Brittain33]

Note Ryan’s son prominently wearing a cross. NGL, if the tables were turned I’d say they’re intentionally drawing a contrast with Vance’s South Asian wife (who may be Christian, I don’t know) who he put in ads to soften him image. I don’t remember the Vances showing this kind of affection, either.

[Brittain33]

I rewatched the Vance ad. Short clip with his full family, short clip with a little kid, but mostly it’s his wife speaking over photos from Vance’s life. I suspect that like Masters, Vance can’t do relatable like Ryan.

[Brittain33]

Share of Republicans could drop in a midterm because a) educated voters, who are high propensity, are moving parties and b) Trump was an extraordinary draw in 2016 and 2020. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s possible. And I haven’t mentioned Dobbs.

[Brittain33]

The only reason I have hope for an unlikely Ryan upset is that we hear again and again, Republican voters are angry at Dems because they perceive Democratic voters are all wealthy elites who look down on them and their way of life. And that is Vance’s vibe, 100%, impossible to cover up - he’s got that elitist Romneyite stink on him.