Brittain33
brittain33
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Atlas Star
Posts: 22,062
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« on: September 07, 2020, 07:12:00 PM » |
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Remember that Trump got 290,000 more votes than Romney in 2016 in Pennsylvania, 160,000 more in Michigan, and 2,000 fewer in Wisconsin.
In other words, Trump had unique strength in Pennsylvania where Clinton was reasonably strong (and had an active campaign), while he benefited from Clinton's unique weakness (and voter suppression) in Wisconsin. Trump won Pennsylvania, Clinton lost Wisconsin.
So if Trump's losing Republicans and we're seeing a surge in Dem turnout in Wisconsin, that should lead to a bigger gap than in Pennsylvania, where Dem turnout was already high in 2016, it just got blown out of the water by Trump's popularity.
Alternatively, or perhaps in addition, we should consider a voter suppression penalty for Biden in Wisconsin that will deflate his poll numbers.
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