Rate Montana for Senate

[Brittain33]

Daines +8

Both campaigns' internal polling shows Bullock up by single digits, you know. It's not a coincidence that Bullock declared for the race immediately after it was clear Biden and not Sanders had the nomination.

[Brittain33]

I think it'll end up Daines +5-10. Of course anybody who doesn't believe it's a pure toss-up is laughed at or mocked. It's going to be very delicious to see if that actually ends up the case. I could be wrong and revise if we get closer to election day, but given history I don't think it makes sense for Daines to lose unless it's a blue tidal wave.

There's an obligatory "Bullock =/ Bredesen" comment but it's actually going to be interesting to see how much Bullock can overperform relative to Bredesen. Contra to the narrative spun after the election, Bredesen was a very strong candidate. He just couldn't pull it off in staunchly Republican Tennesee. Bullock will need to overperform Biden by a 15 point margin to match Bredesen's overperformance of Clinton (9 point margin to match the R house vote in 2018), which may mean outright winning.

Democrats haven’t won a senate race in TN for about 30 years.

What’s the track record in Montana in that time period?

[Brittain33]

Given that Trump will almost assuredly win MT by double digits and Bullock still hasn’t felt the heat of a national campaign yet, I know whose shoes I’d want to be in at this point. 

And yet, Bullock decided to jump in the race when he could have stayed as Governor, and did it immediately when Biden grabbed the nomination after months of denying any interest. Bayh and Bredesen had nothing to lose by trying for a comeback from retirement.

Of course circumstances can change, but would you say that between now and November things are likely to get better for Republicans, or worse? I don't see how the former is possible barring some revelations about the nature of coronavirus or our current 20% unemployment that aren't borne out by actual evidence and observations. Meanwhile, governors around the country not named Kemp have gotten a huge boost in popularity.

I'm sorry, but "hurr durr, Montana so Republican" isn't a winning argument against the half-dozen or so why Bullock is slightly favored.

[Brittain33]

I think it'll end up Daines +5-10. Of course anybody who doesn't believe it's a pure toss-up is laughed at or mocked. It's going to be very delicious to see if that actually ends up the case. I could be wrong and revise if we get closer to election day, but given history I don't think it makes sense for Daines to lose unless it's a blue tidal wave.

There's an obligatory "Bullock =/ Bredesen" comment but it's actually going to be interesting to see how much Bullock can overperform relative to Bredesen. Contra to the narrative spun after the election, Bredesen was a very strong candidate. He just couldn't pull it off in staunchly Republican Tennesee. Bullock will need to overperform Biden by a 15 point margin to match Bredesen's overperformance of Clinton (9 point margin to match the R house vote in 2018), which may mean outright winning.

Democrats haven’t won a senate race in TN for about 30 years.

What’s the track record in Montana in that time period?

Completely irrelevant. There were loads of people on here convinced Bredesen was going to win, many polls that had him up even outside the margin of error.

That's not how I remember it... I remember loads of people excited by the possibility he could win, but not able to believe it would happen in Tennessee in the end. Besides, they were wrong, so what? My argument is on the fundamentals of the race.