IA-SEN 2020: Ernst megathread

[Brittain33]

I never said that...

You repeatedly attribute extreme and overly optimistic views to Democrats you disagree with in your responses. I wrote what I did to show you what it feels like.

[Brittain33]

Joni Ernst won her first race by 8 points in an exceptionally good year for her party.

Do you know who else won her first Senate race by 8 points in an exceptionally good year for her party? Kay Hagen. And she defeated an incumbent, not a challenger to an open seat.

People who've been saying this is Safe R have a lack of imagination.

[Brittain33]

NC and IA aren’t comparable states. Like, at all.

True, Iowa has been swingier than NC in recent years.

Iowa isn’t Nebraska or South Dakota, either.

[Brittain33]

Democrats have always been wayyy more bullish on Iowa and Maine than I would have expected. It’s certainly interesting, but I wouldn’t read too much into it either. Republicans can’t take IA for granted, but there’s no way it will be the tipping-point state in the Senate, and if the DSCC actually considered Ernst more vulnerable than Martha McSally in 2019, they had (have) no idea what they’re doing.

Maybe they didn’t consider McSally a true incumbent because of her history.

[Brittain33]

The X factor in this race is Trump’s hatred of women which many of his followers share. If Ernst says or does one thing Trump doesn’t like, he’ll write her off like Jeff Sessions and she’ll be swimming against the current.

[Brittain33]

The X factor in this race is Trump’s hatred of women which many of his followers share. If Ernst says or does one thing Trump doesn’t like, he’ll write her off like Jeff Sessions and she’ll be swimming against the current.

She no longer has a primary opponent.

Trump got on the Roy Moore train when Strange was out of the way. He'd support Sessions if the only other realistic choice was Doug Jones. He is actively sabotaging Susan Collins, but that's only because she continuously claims to be moderating his brand.

Oh, I wasn’t think of a primary challenge. I imagine him making dismissive comments about her, calling her ungrateful, talking about how she came to him “like a dog” in tears, begging him for his help to win her race. A segment of the country led by Trump likes to see strong women humbled.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

[Brittain33]

If Ernst really does lose (looking much more possible than before, even if she’s still more likely than not to win), Republicans probably won’t be taking back the Senate until at least 2024, if not later.

I would love that to be true, but I can see Ernst losing and the Dems still ending at 53 or less, and having lived through Scott Brown, Mark Kirk, Mark Udall, and all the near misses in 2010 saved by bad Republican recruits, I wouldn't take that bet for 2022. I think it's more likely than not the economy is still in bad shape, Biden looks overwhelmed, and Democrats refuse to show up while Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

Imo If Ernst looses Dems will probably have 54 or 55, seats. Minus AL, Plus ME,NC,GA-S,GA-R,CO,AZ,TX,MT flip if IA flips

I disagree on TX and GA-R, I think Iowa flips before them. Agree on the others as being fair game for flipping first.

Why GA-R?, its more likely to flip than GA-S in my view, due to the jungle primary.

I guess I assumed Perdue was safer as an incumbent than an open seat would be.

[Brittain33]

How considerate of Ernst to take a moment from getting onto her motorcycle in order to film a commercial.