Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Brittain33]

Oh, finally, a real BoE, hallelujah

[Brittain33]

Look at the results for Anson, Richmond, and Scotland counties. Without knowing anything about those counties, which has the largest share of black voters?

Elizabethtown is tiny compared to towns such as Laurinburg and Rockingham, and is divided between two congressional districts. McCready's $44/vote was mostly spent on media buys, which would have been concentrated in Charlotte, which would reach those in Anson, and Richmond.

The facts are that the results, whether by election day voting, early voting in person, or by absentee were consistent with the partisan composition of the electorate.

Shouldn't we look at Robeson, which was also out of the media markets reach? It had a 19 point democratic swing, whereas Bladen had no swing. Is that really not at all suspicious?

Jim would never omit relevant information that might undermine the point he was trying to make. 😉

[Brittain33]

Saw this on Twitter and laughed because who they lined up with Bladen County

[Brittain33]

What do people think we should do with this thread?

I think there's still a case to keep a thread stickied because the primaries and special elections will be (almost) the only game in town for Congressional races in 2019, but we have NC-3 and PA-12 coming, too. Should we make this an open thread for Congressional special elections?

[Brittain33]

The story about the "leaked" results was interesting.

At the end of early voting on Saturday at 1 p.m. They let everyone in line finish voting., and then cleared the room except for the actual election workers, who happened to be 6 Democrats and 2 unaffiliated (there were Republicans, but they only worked a second shift, and there was no second shift that day).

The election workers went about their duties, such as counting unvoted ballots. There were ballots in each of six ballot styles which had to be reconciled, etc. One of the things they believed had to be done was run the results tape, which had all the results printed on thermal paper that tended to roll up.

There were three election workers designated as "judges". There was one head and two assistant judges. Among their duties was to sign the result tape, which they did. This is likely a vestige of when there were hand-counted paper ballots, and the election judges signed the precinct tabulation, which would be locked in the ballot box with the ballots before being delivered to the county.

Except after early voting is completed on Saturday this is not done. Apparently none of the judges or election workers realized this, and were not aware until when informed while they were testifying.

According to Agnes Willis, one of three judges, an election worker (incidentally a Democrat) exclaimed, "oh my god!" and commented that he had thought that the black guy had won, pointing to the the sheriff's race. He had the result tape unrolled, and was pointing at the race, as the other workers walked over. Another judge, who had been responsible for running the tape had testified that he must have rolled the tape out to permit signing (he was one of the three signers) and his eye had caught the sheriff's race. He did not seem to have any recollection of the other workers seeing it. The head judge was not aware of any of this, but had signed the tape and had taken the tape locked up in the "treasure box" to the county. She thought that the elections administrator had questioned her about the "leak" then, but on further questioning had admitted it might have been the following Monday when she was picking up election supplies.

Agnes Willis, told her daughter who lived in Raleigh (or perhaps Greensboro or Charlotte) about the incident on the phone that night.

Two days after the NCSBOE had not certified the results in late November, Willis got a phone call from a local lawyer that she did not know. After saying it would take her an hour to get dressed, he instead came over to house, with a notary in tow, and an affidavit that had biographical information about Willis typed out attesting that she was over 18 and of sound mind and body, and was a resident of Bladen County and a registered voter.

She said that she was confused about what the lawyer wanted to know, and that he seemed confused about what information he was trying to get. After he made several phone calls and talked to Willis, he filled in the affidavit (hand printed in a script that would you have guessed Willis had done it) that she observed officials who were not "judges" looking at the results, and that she understood that his was improper.

She clearly understood the distinction of the word "judges", but people casually reading the affidavit would not. The news stories were that outsiders were in the early voting location perusing the results.

She further went on saying that there appeared to be an unusual number of absentee ballots from one precinct, Bethel. This does not actually appear to be true. Bethel, along with the two Elizabethtown precincts and Bladenboro precincts have more voters. Bethel also had the highest election day votes - and she may have perceived some of these as being absentee ballots - which she claimed could be detected by crease marks from being folded.

As has been discussed earlier, there was not an early voting locations in Dublin (in Bethel precinct) and Bladenboro as there had been for the primary and previous elections. Election day voting in Bladenboro and Dublin was up in 2018 over the 2016, presidential voting. But that was because there was not convenient early voting. Moreover, election day voting in Elizabethtown was below 2016 levels, because it was easier to vote over several weeks than on election day.

In addition, Hurricane Florence had knocked out the regular polling place in Dublin (at the Lions Club), so voters might have been uncertain about voting on election day if they had known about the new location.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1098932366230384641

[Brittain33]

I love how Jimrtex considers the tweet that highlights how Harris nearly committed perjury and had to backtrack at the hearing for whether election fraud was committed as something he classifies to be about "other issues" somehow less important to the case than his long-winded rants about minutiae surrounding other people involved.

The tweet that Brittain quoted had nothing to do with what I wrote.

And I remembered a couple of things I had forgot.

Did you find it off-putting when I responded to your post with information on a completely different aspect of the thread’s subject, just because I thought it was more important and relevant and what I wanted to talk about?

[Brittain33]

Have the primary, runoff and GE dates already been set for NC-9, as the thread title shows ?

I think only the date for the other special election has been set, right ?

Yes, I don’t have it handy but all the dates for NC9 have been set.

[Brittain33]

Have the primary, runoff and GE dates already been set for NC-9, as the thread title shows ?

I think only the date for the other special election has been set, right ?

Yes, I don’t have it handy but all the dates for NC9 have been set.

Well, apparently they weren't, but are now.  According to https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/north-carolina-sets-new-primaries-general-election-in-scandal-plagued-9th-congressional-district/2019/03/04/ccfec0a8-3ea1-11e9-9361-301ffb5bd5e6_story.html, primaries will be May 14.  If no runoffs are needed, the special general election will be Sep. 10.  If a runoff is needed (no candidate gets >30%) then that would take place on Sep. 10, and the GE would be pushed back to November.

Thank you. I've updated the original post.

[Brittain33]

In a special election, these third party candidates are less significant. It's more an issue when they draw Democrats who are voting for President and don't feel strongly about the congressional race.

[Brittain33]

65/35. There can’t be much of a Democratic turnout operation.

[Brittain33]

Aren't the rurals in this district still left of the urban areas? Its much closer than it was like in the Obama era but suburban Charlotte+Union is still+GOP while the rural areas are DEmocrat.

May be they are. But that still not makes this district especially liberal (after all it was 56% Trump). So my main argument still holds: it's rather difficult to be "too far to the right" in this district, but very easy - "too far to the left"...

Why do you think Harris, who was much further right than the incumbent he defeated in the primary, narrowly lost the general election last fall if not for fraud? Clearly he may well have been too far to the right for this district.

[Brittain33]

Comparison of 2019 to 2018 in two Charlotte-area counties.

Nothing from Bladen County.

Looks like turnout has crashed further among Republicans than among other groups.


https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166038721168334851?s=20

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/oldnorthstpol/status/1166029960198459394?s=20

How does this compare to prior elections? I know Dems need to be significantly ahead in these to have any chance but how far ahead would they typically need to be?

My reading is that there is a clear drop in GOP turnout compared to 2018 which I guess is a positive sign for McCready given how close it was last time.

It looks like there’s a huge fall-off for all categories, which you’d expect, but a further drop off for Rs compared to Ds. So good news for McReady now, but potential for change given how many people aren’t voting.

[Brittain33]

The early vote in NC skews fairly Democratic, so it entirely possible that Bishop may rebound by election day.

That may be the case, but it’s skewing significantly more Democratic now than in 2018.

[Brittain33]

Great recap here about what to look at going into Tuesday

Terrific article, thanks for posting it.

This is the guy who's been posting all of those graphics on Twitter for every day's EV data.

[Brittain33]

This thread has me wondering. What was the most embarrassing house seat lost by dems in 2009,2010,or 2011?

I wasn’t really following politics as closely back then

The 2010 HI-01 special was pretty embarrassing and completely avoidable, but it was obviously won back in the regular election. LA-02 would top the list by far if it had taken place a month later. In the 2010 general election, one of the 60% Obama seats like IL-17 or IL-10. Democrats didn't pick up anything higher than a 54% Trump seat in 2018, just for comparison.

Solomon Ortiz losing to Blake Farenthold was pretty embarrassing because a) Hispanic district not expected to ever flip and b) Blake Farenthold

[Brittain33]

It’s so interesting how the total number of votes can vary hugely but some law of statistics keeps the partisan breakdown within a narrow band.

[Brittain33]

Cook Political Report identified more than 30 House seats that are less Republican-leaning than NC-9. If R's win by low digits here, they are in for a world of hurt next year.

I’m sure a special election in a Democratic wave environment in which Democrats have a clear enthusiam edge and the Republican candidate has been outspent by a lot is the best indicator of a massive blue wave in 2020. All it tells you is that Republicans are in trouble, but that would have been true (and obvious) even if they had won NC-09.

A Dem enthusiasm edge doesn't happen in a vacuum. If there's a Dem enthusiasm edge, it could be that there's unique local factors at play, but it also could mean, hey Dems are riled up and converting some suburban Republicans while the Trump base is excited but not as big as Republicans need it to be.

[Brittain33]

We got 100 votes from dare county!

Don't do drugs, kids

[Brittain33]

First votes in:

Greg Murphy    Republican    60    60.0%
Allen Thomas    Democrat     40    40.0%

Trump won Dare by 21.5%

[Brittain33]

McCready leading with zero votes from Mecklenburg and a lot in from Union seems like a big deal even if the EV favors him. (Source: ddhq)

[Brittain33]

So basically all we're learning is that it's really close and we can't forecast. This is fine

[Brittain33]

Well what a surprise, an unusually big swing in Bladen County.

[Brittain33]

I wanted to see a Blue Union is Becoming Red Union GIF.

[Brittain33]

I miss the needle.