TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Brittain33]

Why has nobody mentioned Rafael Anchia. He seems like a very strong candidate, maybe even stronger than Beto. Am I missing something?

Literally never heard of him. Who is he?

[Brittain33]

They won Congressional districts from R holds and won statewide judgeships.

Again, Andrew White may not have beaten Abbott, but the Senate race would had been winnable, with White rather than Valdez as gubernatorial candidate

I’m pretty sure the judgeships were at the county or circuit level. “Statewide” means voters are in every county of the state and Democrats don’t win those races in Texas.

[Brittain33]

Beto opts not to run for Senate, will likely announce Presidential bid in the coming weeks.

We should note this is still in the rumor stage.

[Brittain33]

Hegar is better representative of the voter and district type we need to flip from R to D for us to have a chance of unseating Cornyn.

[Brittain33]

According to the Associated Press/Fox News exit polls, Beto won Latino men 63/35 (women 74/25). If Castro can improve that showing and hold Beto's suburban support, the seat is his.

Helps that Latino men faced ethnic/gender identity cross pressure from Cruz that Cornyn will not be able to exert.

He probably needs to not just hold Beto's suburban support, but to build a little bit off of it in order to actually win. As in

-clear 60% in Harris
-fight to a draw or near draw in Collin and Denton
-hold and build on the Stalinist margins out of metro Austin

IMO, these will come naturally just from the presidential race, considering he is solidly progressive and won't turn off any new voters in 2020. Castro's huge advantage is his ability to turn out Latinos, whose relatively low turnout compared to 2016 is likely what ended Beto.  Combine high latino turnout and Beto(probably better actually, considering how fast these areas are growing) #s in suburbs and although Cornyn will gain a few 100k from high rural turnout, I would put it at pure tossup.

He will turn off moderates, Clinton won lots of moderates in TX, Cornyn is the inoffensive Generic R and a progressive like Castro will alienate moderates

In what world is Castro Progressive

His last name sounds suspiciously progressive, like maybe his parents came here from a progressive country and only spoke progressive at home instead of learning English.

[Brittain33]

Cornyn's campaign Twitter account has only 4,000 followers? I guess it's because it's so early.

[Brittain33]

Cornyn's campaign Twitter account has only 4,000 followers? I guess it's because it's so early.

This Patton Oswalt thing is stupid but it's entertaining to see a tweet get ratio'd with 40 likes and 1.1k replies.

[Brittain33]

MJ Hager will win. GOP and Trump have trouble in Latino states: that's why TX was so close.. The reason why GOP won FL, was due to Rick Scott being popular

It's silly to think a perennial candidate who's never held elected office...

How many times has Hegar run for office?!

[Brittain33]

I get that it's an uphill battle, but Castro is really selfish. This is a horrible cycle for the Democrats in terms of recruitment.

Castro is upset with his brother's chances in the Democratic primary, Joaquin is gonna stay in the House where he is a safer bet.

We have a recruitment in MJ Hegar.

Hegar has never won an election before.

Were you the poster calling her a “perennial candidate” last week when she’s only run in one election?

[Brittain33]

Cornyn is undefeated in overall elections since 1984: Primary, Runoff & General elections.

And Nelson was undefeated from 1972 to... you know what happened.

Also the original unbeatable titan, Dean Heller.

[Brittain33]

Cornyn raised $3.5 million in Q2.

Less than Joni Ernst.

[Brittain33]

Gene Kelly is still alive at age 94!