2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Brittain33]

Please post:

• Generic Congressional Ballot
• House district polls
• commentary

Senate and Gubernatorial polls can go into their dedicated groups.

Previous thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282555.0

[Brittain33]

WOW

[Brittain33]

That NJ-7 poll is GQR for the campaign so consider it (D)

[Brittain33]

An incumbent getting only a quarter of the independent vote is a massive red flag.

In Utah, it may not matter.

[Brittain33]

Thank you for flinging that poo in our direction, SurveyMonkey

[Brittain33]

Morning Consult was added to 538 as R+11, adjusted down to R+8. It's sent the average haywire. Look out for Sean Trende to move some seats toward Rs in his ratings...

Somehow it was entered as R=54, not 35.

[Brittain33]

Morning Consult was added to 538 as R+11, adjusted down to R+8. It's sent the average haywire. Look out for Sean Trende to move some seats toward Rs in his ratings...

Somehow it was entered as R=54, not 35.

I imagine they’ll correct that soon

Dangit, they fixed it by now. Did someone take a screencap? I wanted to see the madness

There was an R spike up to about 41.5 with no change on the D side.

[Brittain33]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

Looking forward to it tightening inevitably and the hot takes crediting the tax cut.

[Brittain33]

Is it just that there's no incumbent and they're catching up with that?

NY-25 is D+8 and that's inflated for Republicans by Trump. It's more Democratic than Ros-Lehtinen's district. But I guess it's not the South Bronx or downtown Seattle, so it won't be "Safe." 

[Brittain33]

Here's that Civitas NC-09 poll: https://www.nccivitas.org/2018/civitas-poll-mccready-leads-nc-09-jobs-economy-top-election-issues/

McCready (D) 43
Harris (R) 36
Scott (L) 3

July 5-8, 543 likely voters.

If this poll is accurate, and if it's accurate that Amy McGrath is up big in KY-6 in internal polls, we are seeing Democratic strength in a number of second-tier seats that are helpful for a majority but not essential to one. This is quite a positive sign.

[Brittain33]

Another NC-09 poll by SUSA:

McReady (DEM): 43
Harris (GOP): 36

Trump:
Approve: 43
Disapprove: 49

That looks like the Civitas poll.

[Brittain33]

Rouda is very brave given that he'll have the full force of the Russian security apparatus working against him and his family. I hope he has secret service protection and his relatives all know how to avoid getting phished.

[Brittain33]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

[Brittain33]

On 538, Dems are at the highest they've been since March 19.

[Brittain33]

Lambinating.

[Brittain33]

This is not the first poll to show seniors moving Democratic much more than older working people (50-64). Their lock on the senior vote is why Republicans did so well in recent elections, it’s big news if they are favoring Democrats evenly to the whole population or tilting.

[Brittain33]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What the hell, Gen X?

I’m sorry! I don’t know why we’d Inks this one up.

[Brittain33]

Preference for Congress (Marist/NBC)

MI: D+9
MN: D+12
WI: D+8

July 15-19, RVs

[Brittain33]

Muh Collin Peterson lean r

[Brittain33]

The Quinnipiac poll has college educated whites at D+13 and non college whites at R+11.

Nobody tell RINO Tom.

Curious: Is the education gap expanding or shrinking according to this?

I believe exit polls say Clinton narrowly lost college educated whites in 2016, so it's expanded.

That is what the exit polls said, but I remember reading this article that they could have been way off.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/27/upshot/trump-losing-college-educated-whites-he-never-won-them-in-the-first-place.html

[Brittain33]

MA-7 Dem Primary: WBUR/MassInc, 7/27-7/29 (403 LVs)

Capuano: 48 (+1 since June)
Pressley: 35 (nc)

Lots of good data at the link.
http://www.wbur.org/news/2018/08/02/wbur-poll-capuano-pressley-7th-district

People are evenly split between reelecting an experienced candidate vs. electing someone new with 40%-40%.

[Brittain33]

Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

I’d be stunned if Katko lost

Why? This is a D+3 district even with Trump overperforming in upstate NY in 2016. He's been unusually strong in the few elections he's run in, but he's not Ileana Ros-Lehtinen with 25 years in office.

[Brittain33]

Dana Balter leading 47-43 in NY-24 according to PPP. Looks like the Democratic lean of the district is eroding Katko’s personal appeal.

That's certainly a terrifying poll for Republicans.

Similar to Lamb leading Rothfus by double digits.

[Brittain33]

I may have missed it but what happened to that load of swing/competitive seat polls that was supposed to come out "this week" (several weeks ago IIRC)? I can't find anything on it.

I think the survey was cancelled because they found there were issues with the results that called into question the methodology... there were posts about a week ago on this. I believe it was The Upshot at NYT pushing this.

[Brittain33]

Crosstabs for Harris Interactive-

Dems winning Gen Z 42-20% (Muh conservative generation!!)

Dems winning Millennials 46-25%

Dems winning Gen X 44-31%

Reps winning Boomers 41-40%

Dems winning Silents 48-35%

Dems winning African Americans 74-6% (Don't tell Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk!)

Dems winning Hispanics 52-18%

Reps winning Whites 41-37%

Dems winning Asians 47-23%

Dems winning the Midwest 42-36%

Dems winning the South 37-36%

Dems winning 19% of those who "Lean Conservative" and 12% of those who are "Strong Conservative"

really glad that that stereotype is dying

Dems ahead with Silents by 14 points seems wrong though

Silents are rather evenly split, and used to be a Dem generation. It really is the Baby Boomers who support the Rs.

The Silents (like my parents) always were Rs... they came of age under late Truman and Eisenhower. It’s the Greatest Generation which is almost entirely gone which leaned D for Roosevelt.