Current House Rating?

[Brittain33]

For people who do not see Dems taking over the House, I am curious what circumstances you would consider required to believe Republicans would lose the House. It is hard for me to envision the situation getting much worse than this for Republicans, but it's also hard for me to imagine Republicans being the majority party in the House of Representatives for eternity.

[Brittain33]

For people who do not see Dems taking over the House, I am curious what circumstances you would consider required to believe Republicans would lose the House. It is hard for me to envision the situation getting much worse than this for Republicans, but it's also hard for me to imagine Republicans being the majority party in the House of Representatives for eternity.

It really comes down to the seat math. The circumstances for Republicans to lose the House are there and are probably about as bad as it gets, but 24 pickups is still a tall order. I am definitely trying to be cautious here rather than forecasting D+30 without knowing numerous paths to that number. No one party ever wins every single tossup race, even in 2006 or 2010, and it won't be enough to have 30 tossup races because Democrats most likely won't win all of those. By "getting worse for Rs" I mean in terms of more and more retirements like Reichert and LoBiondo, which I expect in the coming months. Once it becomes clear that those types of seats are Safe D and people like Denham, Knight and Issa are not only in trouble but DOA, then I will forecast Dems to win the House. I keep it Tilt R out of caution more than anything.

But what about the generic ballot polls ranging from +10 (Morning Consult, most pro-R poll) to an exuberant +18 on CNN?

[Brittain33]

True, but if Democrats waste those votes in districts that already vote 90% Democratic... is it possible that the big swings in the generic ballot we are seeing are necessarily coming from less "packed" districts? Dems may not be maxed out in the urban districts because turnout was low in 2016, but it may well be that we will see larger swings in the moderate and R-leaning districts precisely because Dem districts were maxed out before the anti-Trump bump.

[Brittain33]

King Lear, why is Peterson favored to lose in 2018 when he won in 2010, 2014, and 2016? His district has favored Republicans for a very long time. It's not a Trump thing.

[Brittain33]

That was a fluke election that occurred with an economic crash and the first black presidential nominee running and getting historic black turnout that will probably never be seen again.

Well, God knows there's nothing flukish around Donald Trump defeating Hillary Clinton when losing the popular vote by 3 million votes.