MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Brittain33]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

I guess you're right about that. Anyone have any names?

Carl Sciortino is the dream candidate you're looking for, I think.

Carl Sciortino isn't from that district. Markey represents Metrowest; Sciortino is from Medford/Somerville.

Part of Carl's district, including his home, is in the district, which is half Metrowest and half north suburban Boston. Medford is in the 5th district, Somerville in the 7th. That said, yes, 4 precincts in Medford is not a broad base for becoming a congressman.

[Brittain33]

I'm intrigued that he still thinks he might run for governor. I don't see how he can reconcile that with being a Fox News regular. That's poison in Massachusetts.

[Brittain33]

Fox news is still the most watched news program, even in MA.

Yes, and all the Fox News viewers in Mass are a small minority of the Republican electorate in Mass.

[Brittain33]

I'm surprised by the age gap. Lynch DOMINATES Markey with people under 45 (maybe because of how long Markey has been in congress), which I feel is weird for a Pro-Life candidate. But then again, the pro-life crowd in Masschussets among younger folks is HUGE according to this poll, so it may not be too surprising.

That shows either the subsample is unreliable or Markey has a lot of room to grow by telling young voters that Lynch is a proud social conservative. Actually, the subsample is definitely unreliable because while there may be lots of pro-life young Dems in Mass., there's no way this state has an atypically large pro-life youth population.

[Brittain33]

I checked out the poll. 50% "much more likely to support the pro-life candidate"?

Dan, Mr. Moderate, does this sound plausible for 18-29 year olds in Mass.?

The only way this makes sense to me is if the subsample is weird AND awareness of the primary is so low that the only young people who pass the screen are active in conservative or pro-life politics. But I really wouldn't read too much into this number as saying much except that they're reaching a small number of young people who may or may not be representative of who'll show up in April. I can certainly buy that Markey isn't inspiring young people like Obama, though.

[Brittain33]

First of all, while I said Lynch is anemic on LGBT issues, he's far from conservative on them. He's voted a consistently pro-LGBT rights line in Congress going back to at least the mid-2000s; he just doesn't advertise it. I was actually until recently (read: Ten minutes ago) under the impression that he was further right on that set of concerns than he in fact votes. Lynch is either comparable or to the left of 'generic D' on LGBT issues, crime, the environment, parental leave, homeland security, immigration, education, and guns. He's to the right of 'generic D' on abortion, drugs (of which I was previously unaware), and not much else of any current relevance.

Nathan, this seems to be the article that summarizes it:

http://web.archive.org/liveweb/http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/03/10/a_decade_later_gay_marriage_advocates_praise_lynch/?page=2

Lynch attacked an opponent in his first primary for legislature on the issue of the St. Patrick's Day Parade and opposed gay rights bills while a legislator. It sounds as if since he went to Washington, and started to look statewide, he's stopped opposing gay rights. He's certainly not Tom Coburn, but he renounced his pro-life views a month ago, which seems to be the worst choice one could make.

[Brittain33]

Lynch was the sole congressman from Mass to decline to sign the anti-DOMA brief for the Supreme Court.

This is not going to pass without notice.

[Brittain33]

AFL-CIO declined to endorse Lynch in the primary, which undermines his ambition to be the unions' candidate.

[Brittain33]

Markey leads the Republicans by about 20 points:

http://bostonherald.com/sites/default/files/media/2013/03/06/UML%20MA%20RV%20March%202013%20-%20TOPLINES%20-%20FINAL.pdf

Lynch has decent leads as well.

That has some gems, like at least 15% of the population thinking special elections are both good ideas and wastes of money. Also, Dan Winslow has comically low name recognition, noticeably worse even than the other two Republican candidates. Why would that be?

A sizable share of the Mass. electorate knows *someone* named Michael Sullivan...