MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Brittain33]

Scott Brown is painfully overhyped.

What makes you say that?

He performed respectably in 2012 and is still reasonably popular, and there are few Dems in Massachusetts who don't inspire some part of the electorate to bolt or stay at home. We rely heavily on the GOP having a crappy bench for our success.  

The guy himself is not a brilliant statesman or leader, but he's a very good politician.

[Brittain33]

He ran for the senate in the first place to raise his profile for a run for state office like AG. No one thought he'd actually win and go to Washington.

It may well be supposition, but it's grounded in the fact that running for governor is the most rational and rewarding choice he could make right now.

[Brittain33]

At least no one has floated Andy Card's name yet.

[Brittain33]

Phil, not in this thread, please. Thx.

[Brittain33]

Phil, not in this thread, please. Thx.

Who should set up the MA Special Coronation Thread?

Why don't you start a Kennedy Coronation Watch thread? Then if it happens, there will be plenty to talk about.

I truly don't expect him to be tapped this time, and contrary to your post, I don't think he has the sense of outrageous entitlement you're criticizing to try to get the nomination. But it's not impossible it happens.

[Brittain33]

WBUR poll shows Brown with 58% approval and leading Dem Congressmen by 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/2012/12/20/wbur-special-senate-election-poll

If we have to go through this again, Begich and Landrieu had better win their states.

[Brittain33]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Politico going for the ill-informed, sensationalist angle? Shock.

[Brittain33]

I don't expect it to be more than 5 points either way, but still nice to start out like this. If the Dems are smart they go for Lynch to aim for the Southie vote...

Going for Lynch would be devastating for the Dems. In a special election, you need core voters to turn out. Brown's going to win old conservadems most likely.

[Brittain33]

Politico posted an article about Ted Kennedy, Jr. possibly running for Kerry's seat. It was noted for the first time in the article, all the way down in the eleventh - the ELEVENTH - paragraph, that Kennedy lives in Connecticut, not Massachusetts.

Just a minor difficulty, right?

Politico going for the ill-informed, sensationalist angle? Shock.

Ill-informed? Does he not currently live in Connecticut or is a little thing like actually residing in the state just an issue for the "ill-informed and sensationalist?"

Cool that outage there, cowboy. I was talking about Politico doing a story about Kennedy as a candidate when he isn't one because he lives in CT.

[Brittain33]

Lynch trying to run is not a surprise - he's put out feelers before. The question is whether the unions support him or whether he's completely burned his bridges with his equivocation on Obamacare. If he decides to run (with or without the support) and wins the primary (because Markey, Capuano, and a pure liberal run), move this seat to Likely R.

[Brittain33]

As someone who thinks Brown is favored to win, let me play devil's advocate.

I'm finding it difficult to envision any of the three Congressmen beating Brown. All are down double-digits in the polls.

That was one poll, and it showed how little-known the congressmen were. Brown was around 50%, which is a good place to be, but those undecideds are all Dem-leaning.

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Didn't he spend all his money in the campaign? I assume he's in debt. Meanwhile, Capuano and Markey haven't had a competitive race in at least a decade and presumably have a lot of cash with which to introduce themselves to the state.

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While she was a fresh face, she was also an academic and a woman who was very clearly not from here and was an inexperienced candidate. Those were all obstacles that held her back. She may have had a unique appeal to liberals--but Capuano has been no slouch in appealing to liberals, and neither has Markey. Warren turned out to be an ok candidate who won because she was good enough in a good environment in Massachusetts. That's not a high bar to match.

[Brittain33]

Looks like Brown is about $6 or $7M in debt.

Holy crap! He may have to run for senate in that case. Renting himself out to Wall Street is lucrative and they don't care if he runs for governor.

[Brittain33]

Brown also considering Beacon Hill?

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/columnists/joe_battenfeld/2013/01/dems_fear_scott_may_run_gov

Ugh, the Herald.

(which doesn't mean the story is wrong. Just, ugh.)

[Brittain33]

Lynch is giving "serious thought" to running. Brown said in that same radio interview that the Dems are making it "awfully tempting" for him to run.

Am I crazy, or does that word choice make it sound as if he's not running for Senate? If he were, I don't think he'd be joking quite like that.

[Brittain33]

A lot of Republicans there are pro-labor.

Even at the federal level though? I think it's pretty safe to assume any Congressional Republican is going to vote against the working class' interests >95% of the time - or be thrown out of the party.

Consider who the Republicans representing New England in D.C. have been.

[Brittain33]

I am still of the opinion Lynch could undermine the Brown coalition more than Markay, but a Lynch vs a Tisei/Weld/Baker type would be an entirely different animal.

Lynch undermines the Dem coalition far more effectively than he undermines the Brown coalition...

[Brittain33]

Maybe he's running, but isn't that background a holdover from his 2012 campaign?

[Brittain33]

Is that really his account?

[Brittain33]

The SOS has announced the primary date for 4/25 and the GE for 6/30.

...jumping the gun just a little bit, since Kerry hasn't been confirmed yet, even if it's a given...

[Brittain33]

Good for Brown. He's got a bright future ahead as a millionaire or governor and he'd have to be nuts to take a risk like this.

[Brittain33]

Don't get too excited/depressed. I have a friend that has some fairly well placed sources that said he's prepping for a run. Could they be blowing smoke? They could but my friend is planning on working on the campaign and is getting ready to move up there temporarily for it. Stay tuned.

I had a cousin working for Kerry's office in 2000 who said one day before the Lieberman announcement that Kerry was the pick and they were planning for him to be the VP....

[Brittain33]

Ok, dude. Just telling you what I heard from a fairly confident source.

Chill, Phil.

[Brittain33]

Stephen Lynch should pull a Lieberman and run a strong independent campaign against that Cambridge nutcase.

LOL. Your trolling's only effective when it's grounded in reality.

[Brittain33]

I'm disapointed that Markey is the best we can do. I'm sure he would be a good senator, but the Democrats need to do a much better job at pushing along young risers for these jobs. There wasn't someone in the State Senate that could of ran?

It opens up Markey's house seat for an up and comer, at least.

[Brittain33]

I'm hearing Ann Romney... Too soon?

Do you think she'd actually run for office? It seems even less likely than Michelle Obama running for senate from Illinois, plus Ann has health problems.