US House Redistricting: Michigan

[Brittain33]

Anyway, the VRA only applies to Michigan insofar as you need to avoid having districts that intentionally dilute the black vote such that their preferred candidate routinely loses. Even 45% black wouldn't be an intentional dilution.

Yes, the election of Peters and Levin shows that you probably don't need a 55% black district to have a black Democrat win the primary and then the general election. There is surely a white Democratic base that won't reflexively switch to the Republicans to vote against a Dem candidate, although the Detroit vs. suburbs dynamic is an issue.

[Brittain33]

Seeing all this--how exactly did Peters survive this year in his current district?

[Brittain33]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

[Brittain33]

I guess that upends all those neat plans about putting together Peters and Levin.

I don't get what you are trying to say. These numbers are worse for the Dems than previously thought.

It looks as if the population growth in the state is piling up in already Republican districts to the west, which is going to make it harder to sustain Republicans in the east, especially if the county line rule causes weird outcomes in the vicinity of Wayne County. When Dem districts start stretching outward to reach full population, territory McCotter needs to survive will be laid in front of them like bread crumbs for Hansel and Gretel. Drowning Pontiac in a sea of blue may not be feasible, either.

[Brittain33]

Detroit's population has fallen to 713,000; Wayne County's to 1.8 million. This means only one VRA district equal to the city of Detroit. How does this change the maps?

Conyers should finally get crunched rather than Peters or Levin. More likely they just keep pushing the Detroit districts further into the suburbs.

I don't see how they justify two Detroit districts. And if you go down to one Detroit district, then Ann Arbor is no longer in with Dingell, and you have a lot of Democrats in Macomb and Oakland who don't really fit into a single district. I am curious what happens.

[Brittain33]

I'm thinking 1 district for Macomb Democrats, 1 district for Oakland Democrats, 1 district for Ann Arbor, 1 district for Detroit, and 1 district for everything else in Wayne County that McCotter doesn't want.

Where does the Ann Arbor district go after it fills up on Washtenaw? It would need nearly 400,000 other people. That, coincidentally, is the population left over in Wayne County after you allocate it two districts.

On edit: Wayne + Washtenaw = 2,165,000. 
Three districts = about 2,130,000.

[Brittain33]

I was slightly exaggerating, but Wayne County as a whole has 130,000 people fewer than your map supposes.

How many people does Wayne have? Mine has 1,977,977.

1,820,584

It looks to me that all the Pubbies being counted on to keep McCotter's career on life support are 300 miles further west than expected.

[Brittain33]

the Pubbies may be totally unleashed if they can draw two black VAP 50% CD's, but need to go where convenient to do it, like into Washtenaw or the SW corner of Macomb, or whatever.

Washtenaw is about 12% African American according to the discredited 2009 data (40,000 African-Americans) and McCotter's district lies between there and Detroit. It may well be that the future is as you imagine it, a Republican boot stamping on a Democratic face forever, but it's conceivable that not as many teeth will get knocked out. We shall see.

[Brittain33]

Now, this is interesting. Joe Knollenberg's son, Rep. Marty Knollenberg, sits on a redistricting committee in the legislature.

[Brittain33]

Also is washtenaw pretty Republican outside ann arbor? I find krazens map to be intriguing. You can make it look nicer but he has the right idea.

It just can't be that Republican... AA has only 1/3 of the county's population but the county votes almost as Democratic as Wayne does, or at least it did in 2008. Putting the rest of Washtenaw and Monroe in the 7th district could make Walberg's job tougher.

[Brittain33]

In that map, what happens to:

• Ingham County?
• MI-7 with Monroe and however many people from Washtenaw? A hard-right rep. like Walberg will not like that map, but perhaps the legislature doesn't care for him and would be ok with a lower-profile Republican trying to win that district.

[Brittain33]

Ok, new question. Will Michigan Republicans pair Mike Rogers (Howell) and Thad McCotter (Livonia) in one district in order to create a new Pubbie district in outer Oakland?

[Brittain33]

The Pubbies will have to, in order to avoid the risk of a successful legal challenge that the Pubbie Gerrymander created an unnecessary county split. That risk just cannot be run. Rogers will have to move to Oakland County. Period. Game over. This puppy is just not subject to debate - at all!

Rogers was a state senator for many years and a majority floor leader (per Wikipedia.) What happens if he tells the legislature that he's not moving, especially if some ambitious Republican from Oakland decides the seat has his name on it? Is there no other way to preserve McCotter (using Oakland), Rogers (using Ingham and points west), and Miller (using 7/8 of Macomb) following Michigan's legal rules? The legislature probably wouldn't care if Walberg was screwed over in the process.

Is this not subject to debate because it's McCotter's only fighting chance to stay in Congress?

[Brittain33]

Brittain33, you seem so intent in feeding to the wolves my Pubbie Congresspersons that I work so hard to protect (or in Michigan, quite arguably since Wayne helped us by dropping 170,000 more people, to hatch a brand new Pubbie Congresscritter). It is not going to happen. The Pubbies are going for the max - each and every seat in reach will be Pubbified. Deal with it. The Dems are just not going to control both the presidency and Congress again in the next ten years. We tried that once in recent times, and once is enough!  

I genuinely don't understand where your confidence in this outcome comes from--but I do love seeing your maps and talking about possibilities. Some legislature's going to have to come out with a map soon to shut me up!

[Brittain33]

Thanks--that map answers my question and is what the Republicans almost certainly will do, assuming it's legal on counties and such.

@Mr. X, I'm guessing that if they decide to give a Pubbie some more marginal territory, Walberg will be the odd man out.

[Brittain33]

LOL at that coastal district. Very creative.