Safe Republican.
(first of the 2010 cycle!)
Safe Republican?? You're kidding, right? This is one of the Democrats' best chances for a pickup in 2010. Yes, Missouri lost its bellwether status in November for just narrowly voting for McCain over Obama because of a massive turnout in Springfield and St. Charles and a lower turnout in St. Louis. We're sorry. But keep in mind that at the same time we elected Jay Nixon (D) Governor by almost 20 points and Democrats control all of our statewide elected offices except one. Missouri is not a red state, and we're not a blue state. We are what we have always been: a battleground/purple state.
Robin Carnahan is a formidable candidate and can and will defeat both Blunt and/or Steelman. Things to keep in mind:
1) Steelman is a perennial loser, and not even the Republican Party wants her. She lost the GOP gubernatorial primary to Kenny Hulshof. She is the Democrats' secret weapon for bloodying up the Republican nominee so that (s)he is weakened when (s)he faces our candidate.
2) The Carnahan name carries a lot of weight in Missouri. Robin is the daughter of Mel Carnahan who was a very popular Governor of Missouri (he even carried my county which is a Republican stronghold in Southeast Missouri). In November she won her second term to Secretary of State with 62 percent of the vote and 1.7 million votes, the most votes cast for a candidate in the state's history. (Yes, I realize running for Secretary of State, a statewide office, is not the same as running for the U.S. Senate, a federal office) Depending on the national mood, if it's another big Democratic year, you can expect Carnahan to win by over 5 points. If it's a good year for Republicans, she will still win but it will be much closer (like her election to Secretary of State in 2004).
3) Roy Blunt is related to disgraced ex-Governor Matt Blunt (R), who had the lowest approval ratings of any Governor in the country (save for ex-Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R-Kentucky). The Blunt name won't resonate too well with Independents in the state who will undoubtedly decide the election like they always do in Missouri.
