2012: Hillary Clinton vs John McCain

[HAnnA MArin County]

Iowa will decide the election.

The Clinton name is revered in West Virginia. She would carry it along with Ohio and probably Kentucky. Most of the general election polls I saw in 2008 between her and McCain in Kentucky always showed her leading. These are two of the most likely states that McCain won that Hillary would have won (and still could win), along with her home state of Arkansas. Kentucky and West Virginia are both predominantly white, working-class states in Appalachia and both are in the bottom tier in terms of median income. Bill Clinton carried both Kentucky and West Virginia both times in 1992 and 1996. She *may* have won Indiana, too, but I'd still give that state to McCain.

I think you also have to give Hillary Nevada and New Mexico and probably Colorado as well, all three heavily Latino states and we saw during the course of the primaries that Hispanics strongly favored her over Obama. I still think she would narrowly win Iowa as well. As you indicated, she also would have won Missouri because of her appeal in Rural America among working-class whites, of which Missouri has a lot. 

The black turnout wouldn't be as high in the South so I'd give North Carolina to McCain but I still think she would have held onto Florida depending upon the senior citizen vote.

[HAnnA MArin County]

no way. Never forget how many ppl are against Hillary and can't stand her. She would never win Arkansas in today's day and age. She would be associated with Obama. Conservatives would talk about her views on healthcare. It's just not something that could happen. In 2008 I think it would've come down to Ohio for her and McCain.

Does that exclude the majority of Democratic primary voters (18 million+) who voted for her, the 77% approval ratings she has as Secretary of State and not to mention how she's been named the most admired woman in America for the past 7-8 years? I flagrantly disregard the "people can't stand her" claims. If anything, she's proving to be the winner in this failing administration.

And the only reason Obama lost Arkansas by such a large margin, and why Democrats are in such trouble in Arkansas going into 2010, is because she wasn't the nominee. Of course she would win Arkansas. With her on top of the ticket, the state would have swung probably more Democratic in 2008 than it did Republican. But I'm sure the people in Arkansas did not appreciate the way the Democratic establishment threw her under the bus in 2008 and now they're making them pay for it. Why else would a state as heavily Democratic as Arkansas, where Democrats maintain super-majority status in the state legislature not to mention controlling all statewide executive offices, just all of a sudden swung so suddenly and strongly away from their roots? Yes, I'm sure race had something to do with it, but the Clinton factor is/was the determining reason. I'm sure if you could find any hypothetical general election match-up poll in Arkansas say between Hillary and any generic Republican, she would crush them all, save for Mike Huckabee which it would be a close race.