Who would win Ohio?

[Heebie Jeebie]

Come on.  Romney lost big in Massachusetts in 2012.  Al Gore couldn't even win his home state in 2000 when the country was far less polarized.  Trump would obviously win Ohio.  It's delusional to think otherwise.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think this is fair - Brown is still competitive in OH because he has been successful in divorcing himself from the national party, which would not be possible if he is the nominee. It of course depends on what issues become most important/the national environment, but in a 'neutral' year I would put it at Tossup/Tilt R,  with better odds for Brown than you give but still favoring Trump.

This!  You nailed it, Karpatsky.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Brown won Ohio 3 months ago.

Is it really necessary to explain the difference between running as an incumbent Senator and running as the national Democratic party's candidate for president?

[Heebie Jeebie]

You’re assuming he’d 1. campaign differently and 2. People in Ohio would care and not simply vote for the guy they know best. Trump didn’t win Ohio by such a huge margin, and is not so popular that he’s safe there. I’m not even saying you’re wrong, and in fact I think Trump probably would win, just that it’s ridiculous to act like it’s a sure thing either way.

Okay, I'll grant that I'm overstating my case.  I'm just appalled that so many here seem to think Brown would be a shoe-in.  My God, what self-delusion on this forum.