Which party is more likely to reach 60 seats in the Senate?

[Orser67]

Over the next three cycles, I'd say it's about even.

For Democrats, it would require an outstanding 2020 cycle getting them into the high 50s, followed either by a)admitting PR and DC and winning enough Senate races (PR could be competitive) to get to 60, or b)an unusually good mid-term that gets them over 60 (and of course these options aren't mutually exclusive).

For Republicans, it would require limiting their losses in 2020, having a good mid-term in 2022, and then picking up seats in several swing and Republican-leaning states in 2024.