Percentage chance of Democratic control of the US Senate after 2020?

[Orser67]

It's a real uphill climb that probably requires at least a 4 point victory in the presidential election. I'll say 20%, but I can certainly see the argument that that's generous. A lot depends on how you feel about the presidential race.

[Orser67]

I'd say about 35%.
NC falls next. PresiDem would probably need to be winning by a solid but not spectacular margin. 51 - 48

Clinton won nationwide by 2 points in 2016, but lost NC by 3.5 points. Do you see NC trending Democratic in the presidential race, or do you see the Democratic Senate candidate running ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate in NC?

[Orser67]

I'd say about 35%.
NC falls next. PresiDem would probably need to be winning by a solid but not spectacular margin. 51 - 48

Clinton won nationwide by 2 points in 2016, but lost NC by 3.5 points. Do you see NC trending Democratic in the presidential race, or do you see the Democratic Senate candidate running ahead of the Democratic presidential candidate in NC?

It’s much easier to envision a Trump/Jackson voter than it is a PresiDem/Tillis voter. The former is the kind of unengaged person who probably doesn’t like Trump but thinks he hasn’t done anything tooo bad but REALLY likes that hunk Jeff Jackson and his haircut and how he’s a veteran even though there’s no real policy differences between Jackson and PresiDem. Basically like your Trump/Kander voter in Missouri in 2016.

I guess Kander's performance is pretty conclusive in support of the notion that Democratic Senate candidates can significantly run ahead of the top of the ticket against a Republican incumbent in presidential years. Though it's worth noting that John McCain, Marco Rubio, Chuck Grassley, Richard Burr, Johnny Isakson, Rob Portman, and Ron Johnson all ran ahead of Trump in 2016, while Mark Kirk, Kelly Ayotte, Joe Heck, and Pat Toomey all basically matched Trump's margin of victory or defeat.