Orser67
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,946
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« on: December 14, 2017, 05:11:10 AM » |
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Likely R.
Points in favor of competitiveness: -Likely good-to-great Democratic year nationwide -Decent Democratic candidate -Democratic momentum/interest in the state due to 2016's relatively competitive presidential result and some potentially competitive 2018 House races -I'd argue that Cruz is a weaker-than-average incumbent -Texas's relatively low voter turnout and large non-white population gives the party room for improvement
Points against competitiveness -TX hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1988 and has a PVI of R+8 -Governor Abbott seems fairly popular and could potentially help Cruz by turning out Republican voters -Other competitive races could potentially siphon money away from O'Rourke in an expensive state -TX Republicans have a history of performing relatively well with Hispanic voters
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