Who does your gut tell you will win this election?

[Person Man]

It has to be Obama. Though, the republicans tends to be unbeatable at the presidential level. I mean, if the democrats can't win now, do you honestly think they will EVER win?

[Person Man]

My gut says Obama.  But only because there are so many signs that point to a Democratic victory in November.  It will be an astonishing rebuke of history if McCain wins, but he is the only type of Republican who could pull it off.

...and like I said, which such a large rebuke of history, would there not be large repercussions, or do people simply think that this will be a fluke and everything will be the same afterwards?

[Person Man]

There are really four strong common-sense possibilities to happen in 2008-


10%- Obama, once out of the primaries, will have his traditional edge with indies and about 80% of the Clintonits will come home. With numeric superiority, a 10% defection rate and a 5% lead among indes... he should win about 53 or 54% of the vote and win Florida, Ohio, Missouri and Virginia amongst the other 278 states that appear to be willing to vote for him at the moment....for a total of like 325-350.

50%- The first is that "people just won't vote for a Republican" and Obama wins all of his 278 EVs plus maybe Ohio...for 298 votes...and maybe Florida for 325 votes. Then again, Florida has a really strong GOP and just Ohio would be more likely....at any rate, it will be the democrats winning by a slim but convincing majority in a year they should have landslided in.


40%- America still feels that the democrats are a good protest vote, but still don't feel like they would be very responsible with the war. The Democrats win all of their first tier senate and House oppurtunities for a gain of 3 in the senate and 5 in the house, but still lose New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, in 232-306/ 47-51 rout. From this point-

-The GOP eventually loses in 2012 as they feel that "people are basically republicans" and screw up while the dems nominate a candidate that is both acceptable to the whole base and independents.

If not, the democrats should continue to do well in congress.

10%- The Democrats do so badly, they begin to unravel as they see they lack enough support to be a viable national opposition party.