Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Person Man]

It looks like Democrats have an equal chance of gaining as losing the Senate.

[Person Man]

Hobbs should be kicked out of the party for her neglect.

The race is close enough where she could have won

Hobbs is still up by almost 2Pts... I would certainly rather be her at this point rather than Lake.

Are you high? Biden and Kelly were up by more in 2020 at this stage. Kelly will lose or win by 10-20k either way. Hobbs is defeated - this I’m sure of

I’m pretty sure Kelly is somewhere between where he and Biden were. Isn’t the needle pretty accurate?

[Person Man]

Turns out that Washoe has ~40k mail ins left. Add that to the ~100k mails in Clarke and stick a fork in Laxalt.
https://twitter.com/BenMargiott/status/1590286038668546052

CCM wins the same way Mom always won at Monopoly. "You hide your 500s".

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/galenmetzger1/status/1590326682854264832

DING DONG THE WITCH IS DEAD

Dark Brandon strikes again.

[Person Man]

Remember, boys: Real men make major political decisions and then blame their wife for her bad advice when things go wrong.

Damn straight!

[Person Man]

What are people predicting for Nevada and Arizona in terms of results and margins?

[Person Man]

People shouldn't be extrapolating 2020 voting trends to 2022. 2020 was a special year. A better comparison would be the 2021 recall election and the 2022 primaries where Ds did better in the late counts.

How does that affect us?

[Person Man]

Wait.  Wait wait wait wait wait wait.  

Colorado said: "yeah, psychedelics are A-okay!"

But selling alcohol in grocery stores? "No.  No way.  Absolutely not.  We HAVE to draw the line somewhere!"

It’s for a very good reason. Do you know what Colorado, especially the North Metro college towns are famous for? This was before weed.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1590412932243984384

So it begins.

Let them fight.

They aren’t even guaranteed to have anything to fight over.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1590411208058101760

Hey guys I think the GOP has a messaging problem...

Eunuchs…

[Person Man]

Colorado has a very prominent and politically powerful brewery industry. Might explain why the alcohol liberalization ballot measures all went down.

Why would the brewery industry oppose liberalization?

So people don’t stay at home to drink.

[Person Man]

So ...any chance Schumer can nudge Murkowski into switching to Independent and caucusing with the Democrats? She's gotta be getting tired of all the base Republicans voting against her up there.

C'mon Lisa, join the winning team, it'll be fun!

If she has common sense, she will. Her state is swinging.

[Person Man]

Ouch to Masters

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1590507551271292928?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

[Person Man]

I hope there isn't violence between boebert and frisch supporters tonight.

I wouldn't worry about it.  Nobody lives out in the that part of Colorado anyway except for a bunch of Bighorn Sheep and some ravens.  

I lived a year in Steamboat. That’s kinda true.

[Person Man]

NV-SEN feels like watching a football game that ends 12-10 with the winning team kicking four field goals.

I remember one like that. Ram Bucs in 1999. NFC championship.

[Person Man]

So if the razor close gov, AG, etc. races are still in play in AZ, shouldn't we feel pretty good about Kelly and his 5 point lead?

We should. And it should help in GA too...by harming Walker by making the runoff not decide Senate control.

Not convinced that would help Walker all that much, honestly.

It would just be bad ass to actually gain in the Senate

[Person Man]

So if the razor close gov, AG, etc. races are still in play in AZ, shouldn't we feel pretty good about Kelly and his 5 point lead?

We should. And it should help in GA too...by harming Walker by making the runoff not decide Senate control.

Not convinced that would help Walker all that much, honestly.

If the race doesn’t decide Senate control, perhaps some Republicans who were holding their noses to vote for the brain damaged abortionist won’t feel as inclined to show up for him.

The Brain Damaged Abortionists sounds like a band name.

[Person Man]

Pueblo just dumped and Frisch is still narrowly ahead

So what’s left?

[Person Man]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but Herrell conceded to Vasquez earlier today. Given her behavior in 2018, I'm pleasantly surprised.

Well, that’s why they are so radically against abortion. They’re a bunch of big ol babies!

[Person Man]

Shouldn't Republicans be worried that they're winning the House vote pretty comfortably so far and the House is a toss-up? Like I know the votes from California will be very pro-Dem but it won't turn the margin from R+6 to like D+2. The conventional wisdom has always been "Ds need to win the PV by 2-4 points to just break even!" which... doesn't look that way.

You mean that if they win 10 seats, it will be because they won by two million votes instead of having lost by a million?

[Person Man]

So the Captain is 95000 ahead with 375000 not counted? That means that the rich “cultural autist” needs 375000 - 375000/2 + 95000/2 to win. That’s what? He has to win 5/8th of the vote? Exit polls say he going to lose by 4. The needle says by 3. I think the best he can hope for is to get within 30000/1.x%.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1590505669069000704

Imagine this race being decided by 1 vote and getting Dems to 218. Ok, better don't.

The senate might be decided ultimately by the appeal of a brain damaged abortionist and the house by a a semi-literate schizoid barmaid.

[Person Man]

Looking at what's left in their districts, Hodge and Engel seem to have pretty good forward trajectories, so long as the remaining vote in Maricopa and Pima respectively go well for them.

So it’s only a matter of time for the Captain to win? I could see a situation where, if you averaged the two races at the top, you would come very close to the national GCB, about D+1. Arizona might be voting in line with the nation now.

[Person Man]

We have a peek into MARICOPA LATE EARLIES

https://twitter.com/Jamal___James/status/1590757973147930624?cxt=HHwWgMDSkdn8wJM...

As Jamal says, stick a fork in Finchem and Masters. These drops may even break D…

Hobbs vs Lake will be a bloodbath, so expect militias wandering the streets for weeks…

https://twitter.com/A_R_Stumpf/status/1590763584664895488?cxt=HHwWgICgmarDw5MsAA...

Still potential for Blue AZ! Thank you Donald Trump, Kari Lake, and Peter Thiel!

If the statewide Ds pull it off, it’s somewhat safe to assume one of Hodge or Engel could win AZ-1/6

Can't wait to see how screwed these fruitcakes are.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/_alex_joshua/status/1590749244163784707

What if you are a girl?