Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Sir Mohamed]

There go 52 seats. That would have put us on a better track for 2024. Even if Kelly and CCM hold, Dems can just afford to lose WV in 2024 without losing the senate. After today's results, targeting Scott in FL is a hopeless case. That leaves TX as the only longshot target for 2024, with several D-held seats on defense. We could lose the senate then despite Biden winning reelection.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I guess ticket-splitting is still a thing. I changed this race to Safe R at the last minute because the polls just didn't show a winning path for Barnes, and the polls were accurate.

I wonder if we'd be better off with Evers as governor or Barnes as senator...

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137

[President Johnson]

There go 52 seats. That would have put us on a better track for 2024. Even if Kelly and CCM hold, Dems can just afford to lose WV in 2024 without losing the senate. After today's results, targeting Scott in FL is a hopeless case. That leaves TX as the only longshot target for 2024, with several D-held seats on defense. We could lose the senate then despite Biden winning reelection.

Yeah, 2024 will be a heavy lift for senate Democrats. They would need a very strong recruitment against Cruz.

[politics_king]

Gurl, bye:

https://twitter.com/galenmetzger1/status/1590326682854264832

Dems actually do have a viable path to the majority right now which is insane.

Cali is the biggest wild card. They don’t need a clean sweep but they need to do well (win all of CA-09, CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-47, and CA-49, with perhaps a bonus somewhere else in the state.

Not sure about the non-SoCal ones but Smith is trailing Garcia by 4 points more than Chen is trailing Steel at this point in the count. GOP is def taking back the House.

Eh, there's clearly a ton of Dem vote out in CA it seems. Newsom is down to +16, and that margin will absolutely grow a good amount.

I don't know about that.

There is no reason why Newsom or other Democrats in California to overperform the California Primary results which are a traditionally good indicator of the final result.

Idk if it’s the hopium talking but I believe lfromnj’s hot take that Long Pham (R)’s strong showing in the CA-45 primary was an anti-Steel vote means Jay Chen will lose by a much more respectable margin than the 11% NYT is currently showing. (And that Katie Porter wins by more than 1%)

Regardless, Dems really need to step up the countering non-English misinformation game. Judging from what I’ve seen on Reddit it seems like no lessons have been learned from 2020. Or maybe it’s just supply chain + Ukraine + suboptimal American Rescue Plan induced inflation talking. Bleh, whatever.

Rick Caruso's is up in Los Angeles... Frankly the issue is the Democratic Party here in the state. Republicans just pretend to have the D in front of their name and they have tapped into the Boomer vote here. The Homeless problem here in the state was a major issue and crime was also a big issue. Now we have 4 years to watch how the rich, "elites", etc will screw over the state. I think Newsom has done a good job but he's a silver spoon politician and him not making endorsements in local elections will have impact and will make people remember.

[Crumpets]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137

"I didn't pick a bad candidate, my wife did!"

[Zache]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137

Everyone's fault but his own. A Trump classic.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Does anyone have a good explanation for exactly what happened in New York?
Like why does it appear to have been a sizable red wave across the state while both Pennsylvania and all of New England were significant blue waves?

Hochul sucks and has no credibility downstate as a relatively obscure upstater

She was a drag on the whole D playing field

This doesn't really clarify anything. Why does Hochul suck?  She just seems like a generic Dem, which should be completely fine in NY, especially against an ultra-MAGA opponent.  And why would a governor being "obscure" lead NYC-area voters to vote Republican for Congress?

[choclatechip45]

Does anyone have a good explanation for exactly what happened in New York?
Like why does it appear to have been a sizable red wave across the state while both Pennsylvania and all of New England were significant blue waves?

NY Dems did not have a coordinated campaign this year.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Honestly I just love how many atlas wisdoms kinda got destroyed in this election. All sorts of truisms about how Candidate quality doesn't matter, Polarisation means it doesn't matter who you nominate, all swings are universal and that sort of stuff all got proven bunk.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

SPM conceding is what gives me pause. He prolly has more info than all of us and making that decision wasn’t on a whim

[Associate Justice PiT]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137?s=20&t=1FLxnUCc8A6X...

     No surprise from Trump, but just zero accountability. You gave us Oz, bro. Own up to your failure.

[Atlas Force]

I guess ticket-splitting is still a thing. I changed this race to Safe R at the last minute because the polls just didn't show a winning path for Barnes, and the polls were accurate.

I wonder if we'd be better off with Evers as governor or Barnes as senator...

Think of it this way, with a Republican governor setting election policy it becomes harder to elect a Democratic Senator in the future, wouldn’t it?

[Lognog]

Weren't the later ballots in NY very Dem friendly in 2020? I remember making swing maps days after the election where NY was a clear outlier, and looked like Republicans had really overperformed, only for it to even out with the states around it as the last ballots came in.

I think the later ballots were more dem friendly, I remember Souzzi looking like he was slightly behind at like 3AM election night

Edit: this is pure copium about NY and they could have changed whatever may have made that the case in 2020

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1590381311814139905

[politics_king]

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1590359514913845249?s=20&t=_yyyrbHCm8oixCJB8O...

AOC again calls for Jacobs to get the axe

She's right. Next move is to go for Chuck's Senate seat but only if he and I believe he is and shown over the past couple years to hand it over to her. Chuck was one of the first for student loan debt cancellation which I don't think is the absolute decision but Chuck started showing her personal beliefs and I have a sneaky feeling he likes what AOC is about and her getting that seat would be huge for the left.
.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137

Blaming his wife for an endorsement he chose to make and double down on repeatedly is absolutely hilarious.

[emailking]

CNN now jumped from 82% to 99% counted in Milwaukee, without changes in raw votes. They got my hopes up for nothing.

They thought there were more mail ins but it was confirmed there weren't which is why everyone was able to call it.

[Gass3268]

Evers won 47 precincts (out of 144) in Madison with at least 90% of the vote. In 7 he got at least 95% of the vote. There was a ward in the eastern part of the Isthmus that he got 97.5% of the vote!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1590370778188763137?s=20&t=1FLxnUCc8A6X...
     No surprise from Trump, but just zero accountability. You gave us Oz, bro. Own up to your failure.

When has Trump ever done that? Like ever in his life?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1590380556331556865?cxt=HHwWgoCl3ZKslZIsAAA...

[John Dule]

Remember, boys: Real men make major political decisions and then blame their wife for her bad advice when things go wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nice low-key shoutout to Atlas from Prof. Michael McDonald:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1590355226015731719

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1590380556331556865?cxt=HHwWgoCl3ZKslZIsAAA...

NYT count has both of them above 120k, though?