Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

I wish he would go ahead and make his move. That would be one less sword hanging over our head.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/why-germany-and-the-us-are-stalling-on-modern-tanks-for-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

"Why Germany and the US Are Stalling on Modern Tanks for Ukraine"

Beyond what the article talks about which is about concerns over dwindling stockpiles and logistics there is also the issue of tank doctrine.  I mentioned this before.  Germany took over a large cache of French tanks in 1940 but it ended up being useless for the rest of the war because French tank doctrine was different from German tank doctrine. 

I think if a large of these NATO tanks (which are just bigger than the USSR-based tank models and might not do as well in the muddier terrine in Ukraine) do show up there might be a need for some NATO "volunteers" to operate them.  In fact, that might be another form of NATO escalation a-la Flying Tigers in the Sino-Japanese war before 1941.  Perhaps NATO can form a "Running Panthers" group to go into Ukraine to operate NATO tanks as their escalation to the recent Russian escalations.

You mean NATO should send in “advisors”?

[Person Man]

Hitler's desire to expand German territory - which he briefly did - ultimately lead to the permsnent loss of Silesia, Pomerania, and East Prussia. Those who forget history are damned to repeat it.

This is clearly survivers bias but the desire for more territories worked out pretty well for a bunch of other countries.  USA, Russia, and China come to mind (just look at the map.)  So while such desires can lead to bad results they can also lead to derived results.

False dichotomy.

These were gradual, slow, long-term "expansions" and not the result of the decision of s single, aggressive  president or leader who is considered an international pariah.

1848 was pretty quick given the size of territories involved

False dichotomy no. 2.

I don't recall James K. Polk being considered an international pariah or being subject to international sanctions over it. And the reason why this was the case is because international relations were conducted under a different set of rules than they are post-WWII.

Do you understand the difference?

Sounds like a fun timeline.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/why-germany-and-the-us-are-stalling-on-modern-tanks-for-ukraine#xj4y7vzkg

"Why Germany and the US Are Stalling on Modern Tanks for Ukraine"

Beyond what the article talks about which is about concerns over dwindling stockpiles and logistics there is also the issue of tank doctrine.  I mentioned this before.  Germany took over a large cache of French tanks in 1940 but it ended up being useless for the rest of the war because French tank doctrine was different from German tank doctrine. 

I think if a large of these NATO tanks (which are just bigger than the USSR-based tank models and might not do as well in the muddier terrine in Ukraine) do show up there might be a need for some NATO "volunteers" to operate them.  In fact, that might be another form of NATO escalation a-la Flying Tigers in the Sino-Japanese war before 1941.  Perhaps NATO can form a "Running Panthers" group to go into Ukraine to operate NATO tanks as their escalation to the recent Russian escalations.

You mean NATO should send in “advisors”?

No, Russia can then claim that that is an act of war. What NATO can do is have their own "Wagner group" of former NATO tank operators come in and work for Ukraine to operate some of these NATO tanks that are not compatible with Ukraine tank doctrine.

Like a Blackwater type of deal?

[Person Man]

So Putin pulls off his own version of the Republic of West Florida scam of 1810 although that one was more of a rouge operation by ex-members of the USA military.

I think in 5th Grade I had to read the memoirs of a military officer who was exiled to a life at sea over this.

[Person Man]

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!

Though it seemingly implies an acceptance that the rest of Ukraine isn't "theirs".

And that means not just Kiev but also Kharkiv and Odessa.

Whatever happens now, Ukraine is 99% certain to survive this as a recognisable functional state.

Which implies the continued ability to integrate with NATO and the EU and the continued possession of at least one port? 

[Person Man]

Back to the war. How many Russians are trapped in Lyman?

[Person Man]

Putin in his speech asked the Russian people if they want to live in a country where mother and father become parent 1 and parent 2.  This mimics some of the themes of Giorgia Meloni in some of her speeches.  It is clear Putin is also trying to appeal to the populist Conservative Right in the EU.

Eight months ago, I’d have completely agreed he was doing this for his fans at home and abroad. Since then, I’ve learned to ask myself, “What if he’s just that stupid?”

I think it is possible he actually believes most of this and is suffering from online brainrot after COVID-era isolation. There’d be some twisted irony in his “anti-colonial” speech leaning so heavily on Western-manufactured kulturkampf, but it can’t be ruled out.

What’s Putin’s stance on the N-word?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1575910197964713984?s=20&t=EzKoBEgWJHeVYI...

Why go around the river when the right flank can cut them off?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/dril/status/473265809079693312

And then when the wise man complains “that’s not fair!”, I’ll say, “you’re the nihilist, dude!”

This situation is very black and white. If you don’t think that, it raises doubts about your trustworthiness, dependability, reliability.

[Person Man]

Old Europe's broad map makes the previous page of this thread almost unreadable... maybe just put the link there?

Anyway, this is getting more depressing by the day. Ukraine advancing is obviously extremely positive, but I don't really see a good way out anymore now that Russia has formally annexed these four regions. It seems like a fiction they would ever stop fighting for land they now officially consider to be just as much part of Russia as Moscow. I actually think it is now more likely than not that nukes will be used in this war, particularly if Ukraine keep advancing and Russia cannot win conventionally. I generally don't like Godwins, but Putin seems to be going full Hitler: Russia's very existence would be on the line and if Russia doesn't win, they don't get to live on anyway. An extremely dangerous fantasy that could plunge Europe and the world into a nuclear winter. A unified Western response is more necessary than ever, and within the Western bloc Europe should be more united and more autonomous from the U.S. at the same time.

Even nuclear war happens for a reason.

[Person Man]

What will then be the next battle? Where are the eyes of the world focusing on now?

[Person Man]

Meanwhile...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1576273418710048768?s=20&t=yK5phdvGX...

1…. 2… 2 and a half… 2 and three quarters…

[Person Man]

I believe Biden mused that if Russia uses nukes, one possibility is to cut Russia off from the world economy. What does that mean? Cutting off Russia's gas and oil exports? That would entail severing oil pipeline to China. Whatever it means, how practical is it, absent raining destruction itself? Yes, I understand, thanks in part to this thread, that Putin using nukes is a very remote possibility.

Can’t the CIA bomb pipelines and the US Navy start interning Russian cargo ships? We’ve already suggested the defenestration of Putin. I mean, to me, assassination, piracy, and sabotage would be a reasonable in kind retaliation against tactical nuclear weapons without going immediately to MAD or straight to a ground war.

[Person Man]

Back in 2000, an "emotionless robot" was widely seen as a refreshing change from an erratic drunk - both in Russia and further afield. Apart from poisoning his mind with both Duginist screeds and online crankery during the pandemic, he is a prime exhibit of the dangers of staying in power too long.

So Vladimir Putin is basically the ultimate role model on 4chan.

[Person Man]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

[Person Man]

I am going to wait for further visual confirmation before celebrating, but there's increasing chatter on both sides that Ukraine broke through Russian lines on the Kherson front.


https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1576611237479288833
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1576602192990961664
https://twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1576603172595900416

That’s a blitz.

[Person Man]

Eventually, if things start going poorly and Russians are rolling into Kharkiv, and getting close to Odessa and Kiev, a decision will have to be made but we are not at that point yet.

That is my hope for this war to end eventually.  Both sides have to understand that anything close to total victory by either side will provoke massive retaliation by the other side.  The war can only end in a way where it saves face for both sides.  Both sides will lose something they do not want to lose but get something in return. 

The West’s main objectives are 1) Russia is deterred from further aggression and 2) Ukrainians, Baltics, and perhaps even Caucasians still feel that they can rely on the west.

[Person Man]

This is more of a general observation than anything special going on right now, but the obsessively homophobic cast to current Russian anti-NATO rhetoric is really something. At least in the bad old days the CAPITALIST SWINE terms of abuse had a vestigial legitimate point smothered deep within them.

Given what we know about homophobic rhetoric, bots, paid grifters and disinformation campaigns in recent years across the west, Russia is currently high on it's own supply.

It's why you got such an unfiltered 'online' speech from Putin during his pretendy annexation speech.

I see a pattern here between this and FSB torture reported to be heavily centered around butt stuff.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1577347101926760448

It is like Russia is becoming the next Ghost Town.

[Person Man]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

That kind of thinking does make sense for winning one's objectives. And that's especially true in a conflict with this kind of quality.

In the end, neither side is prioritizing bringing the war to an end as soon as humanly possible; they are prioritizing shaping whatever the world will look like when the war actually ends in their favor.

Particularly in Ukraine, it would be a big hazard for Zelensky if he just laid down his arms and acted weak, especially with the war has developed. His public image would never recover and he doubtless does not want to see his country lose land like this, on a personal level. He wants those eastern portions back in the fold. Additionally, Russia going forward with annexations only amplifies the number of things that have been said and would have to be taken back and that does represent a unique step in this conflict. (Yes, these lands were annexed by Russia in the 1700s, but that was an entity that had Ukrainians in its umbrella.)

An argument could be made that the wars of Justinian in taking Italy killed the spirit of Rome; and one could likewise say that the wars of Putin killed the spirit of the Soviet Union.

One can only hope.

He’s like Justinian and Belisaurius, but even less competent.

[Person Man]

So these are guys that are deserting so that they can surrender?

[Person Man]

Damn, this Ukrainian soldier (whose POV the video is from) must kick ass in first person shooters.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1578120114947457025?t=DDDcR8Y335mtbHp8i...

Major pwnage

[Person Man]

Is Russia stepping up the use of these Iranian drones in Western Ukraine for specific military purposes, or just destroy infrastructure and terrorize the civilian population out of spite the way Churchill fire bombed Dresden during WWII?

If Russian can send in drones from Belarus into Ukraine, why can't Ukraine send in drones to take out the drones in the airfield that they are being deployed to?  Are these drones the best thing ever? I mean they seem relatively cheap and accurate, and you don't have to cope with pilots. And just why is a relatively backward rat hole like Iran able to fabricate them?

What are we going to do about Iran selling these bad boys to Russia?

I think it is legit for Ukraine to attack the Russian bases those drones came from.  There might be a blowback but it is for Ukraine to decide if it is worth it.  Russia is very strong in military technology overall but drone technology is one of the ones in which Russia has underinvested for a long time so it is not a surprise they had to rely on Iran for these drones.

It’s very sad, yes.

[Person Man]

tbf I understand Woodbury's concerns. If the Russians can't transport stuff to Crimea the Ukrainians won't be able to resupply their tank fleet.

I know Im really concerned. Seriously. Look at how concerned I am. Just look!