Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Lol, haram bullets

The Azov guys are known for some, ugh, unsavory world views. Hope Ukraine gets rid of them if/when they are in a stable position again.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ng_ukraine/status/1497924614865002497

That’s a bridge to far. This pretty much.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1498047294242963459

This isn’t just Ukraine’s war, it’s Europe’s war. At least a proxy war.

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

So they will all be living on ramen?

[Person Man]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

Why? They have nicer stuff.

[Person Man]

Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

Only 2014?! That’s awful, no?

The markets are not fully open. FX trade as I said is very very light. The ruble is not one of the main traded pairs anyways. Equity markets fell as much as 40% on Friday in Moscow. There will be more to come.

Could this become a legitimate humanitarian crisis?

Russia has enough farmland to feed its people and enough oil to keep the lights on. It's not going to be a humanitarian crisis, but it is going to be a early 2010s Greece speedrun within a week.

can’t csto and China prop them up?

Hopefully this will force Russia into be more controlled by China.

[Person Man]

Is Ukrainians using the Russians sh**ts they left behind?

Why? They have nicer stuff.

Use everything possible

If it works.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1498060945070956551

Expected to be honest. No one in their right mind would invest in Russia for the foreseeable future, so why not stop existing investors from liquidating...

And now no one ever will.

[Person Man]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

[Person Man]

American intel has been absolutely elite so far in this war, I trust them to know exactly what's going on in Russia and know which buttons we need to press to end the war and (hopefully) get Putin fragged.

Our foreign policy and intelligence apparatus has had its best year in decades.

[Person Man]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

What is the worst he will do, nuke DC? GO ahead Putin, do your worst!

Uhh? Literally start a nuclear holocaust? That he doesn't care about? Because he's going to die soon anyways and no longer gives a you know what about his country anyways.

Do you honestly think he will? It’s really looking like the only reason this is happening is because he’s threatening everyone with them. Thankfully, at least the Europeans are calling his bluff.

[Person Man]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

What is the worst he will do, nuke DC? GO ahead Putin, do your worst!

That might inconvenience those of us who live in DC, don't you think?  

I'm in DC too ya know lmao

I wonder what I’ll see from Henrico county.

[Person Man]

Putin trying to nuke America is absolutely non-believable until proven otherwise.
But if he's losing his mind, then it's quite likely parts of his brain will fancy it.
In any case though, we don't have any evidence whatsoever he's considering it and it should not be treated as plausible.

We were talking about a hypothetical in which NATO troops are engaged in direct combat with Russian forces.

I mean, there was Korea and Vietnam.

[Person Man]

What is the point of that "Russia nukes DC" tangent? Take a walk, leave this thread for important updates rather than your own dooming.

Some people here almost seem to want nuclear armageddon.

Agreed.... people can either take it another thread (Believe there is already one out there?), since it's really getting a bit OOT.

It I were a mod might start looking at selective muting if folx don't keep it relatively civil and on topic.

Still not a mod and not an attempted mod-jacker, but it's starting to turn into one of these things which occasionally will clog up US General Election threads...

The point is that the EU entering a proxy war against the Russians in Ukraine is reasonable given where things are and if Russians start a campaign of extermination with their thermobolic MRLPs, then it would be reasonable if ground forces are set up to form a minimum defensive perimeter of the western quarter of Ukraine.

[Person Man]

Putin trying to nuke America is absolutely non-believable until proven otherwise.
But if he's losing his mind, then it's quite likely parts of his brain will fancy it.
In any case though, we don't have any evidence whatsoever he's considering it and it should not be treated as plausible.

We were talking about a hypothetical in which NATO troops are engaged in direct combat with Russian forces.

I mean, there was Korea and Vietnam.

Stalin and Brezhnev (and Mao given the PRC presence in both of those wars) respectively might be more mentally stable than Putin is right now, as hard as it is to believe. Obviously it's always difficult to tell what is/isn't true regarding the modalities of the Kremlin but it sounds like even his inner circle is starting to become afraid of how unhinged he's been.

Given the stakes and the Kremlin's willingness to cross lines that most Western observers once regarded as unrealistic, this isn't a situation to assume that this is merely a case of madman theory gone awry.

You can’t let people bully you just because they are disabled.

[Person Man]

Relax guys. Nobody is going to nuclear war. Even if Putin himself is crazy enough to do so, he's never going to be able to get past his advisors, the military, the oligarchs, or anyone else who doesn't want to Russia to be nuked right back.

The key to ending this nightmare might be to prime Putin without crossing the line with his  inner circle.

[Person Man]

Russia moment



^{Stolen from r/noncredibledefense}

Where’s the bears riding the giant balls?

[Person Man]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

CCP shill very sad that mother Russia being destroyed by Ukraine.

You wouldn't say that if say Afghan civilians were uploading videos of American troop movements on Twitter, you'd call for Twitter to delete the posts immediately and possibly for the army to find and punish said Afghans.

Yes, yes, of course, I am an American, not a bloodthirsty murderer who supports genocide and barbarism.

Edit: wait, no, I actually wouldn't want to the Army to punish Afghan civilians??? Somehow I just glossed over this despicable sentiment - you are a sicko.

Well, for starters, no American troops would be in that position.

[Person Man]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/wielding-swift-against-russia-for-ukraine-invasion-is-a-big-risk

Bloomberg editorial argues that the SWIFT sanction carries a big risk.  Bloomberg's position often represents the Wall Street position.  What is not said is that cutting Russia from SWIFT will accelerate the creation of alternative financial arrangements in the world which are now going to be further outside the influence and control of Wall Street and by connection the collective West.

That just sounds Beta. What’s the point of the leverage if it wasn’t working?

[Person Man]

I don't what kind of terms are being offered, but short of something terrible vassal status, I almost wish Ukraine would accept it.  They've shown how brave they are, and they've shown the Russian armed forces as being almost a complete joke.  But unless they know about some concrete action the West is going to take, I'm worried a whole bunch of civilians are going to start dying.

Seeing a Russian-speaking city like Kharkiv bombed like that makes me wonder what the tyrant has in store for Kyiv, not to mention West Ukraine.  Also, a lot of the other news today seems pretty grim - letting prisoners go to serve in the military, hyping the volunteer force and almost begging to join the EU don't scream confidence.  As much as the Russian casualty numbers have been hyped, you have to wonder just how high the good guys' losses have been.

Maybe in this case, discretion would be the better part of valor.  Anything to keep a Ukrainian nation around, keep working on building up and modernizing the armed forces, and then when the time comes, rip up any agreements and kick the Russians asses once and for all.  They certainly have no problems with deceit when it serves their purposes.

Lies and empty threats is all that Putinists have offered.

[Person Man]

We desperately need to get involved NOW.

My guy. Your country is providing equipment and military intelligence to Ukraine, and helped organise one of the most coordinated sanctions packages in history. That’s how the West intervenes.

Sending our planes, ships or troops would be the opening salvo in an East-West war and take us within inches of nuclear war. That’s why we’re running non-direct action, and that’s why I find this cheerleading so disturbing.

Last I heard, Poland is providing MiGs to Ukraine along with pilots to fly the planes. That's as damn close as we can get to actual boots on the ground without provoking a massive broader war.

The EU is already in a proxy war with Russia.

[Person Man]

All I will say is, expect nearly every country that can to try and produce their own nuclear weapons after this. Plenty of countries had the capability but didn’t push it or fully invest into it because there was not enough of an incentive. This (and Iraq to a smaller extent) is the breaking point. I’m glad y’all wanted to avoid nuclear war, but in doing such we have made nuclear war even more likely in our limited future.

This become inevitable when Wisconsin was called for Trump.

[Person Man]

Nexta has backtracked almost immediately. Talks are not over, the delegations were taking a break.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498306376916996097?cxt=HHwWgsC4jcTthsspAAAA

Do you think that means anything?

[Person Man]

Planned utilization of Russia to Europe gas pipes via Ukraine for tomorrow continues to be at a record.  So Russia continues to ship gas to Europe and get paid for it and Ukraine continue to get paid by Russia for transit even as fighting continues.

That's actually good for some people to know.

[Person Man]

Putin NEEDS to be stopped. Are we seriously going to let Russia do whatever they want today because their madman is throwing a fit? The likes of JFK, Eisenhower, and even Reagan would be p**sed at how f**king weak American leadership is today.

As for Western European leadership…well I’m not even gonna start.

They need to weigh the risk of NYC, LA or Washington DC being nuked and millions of Americans dying. No, it is not likely to happen. Yes, it is POSSIBLE that it COULD happen. These things need to be taken into strong consideration.

I understand, but given the extremely low risk, it is worth it IMO.

At this point, the risks of pretending they are always one second away from blowing us up is riskier than calling it.