NJ- National Research/Ciattarelli Internal: Murphy +3

[Person Man]

I think Murphy wins by 3 and Youngkin pulls it off in the world where Republicans get 56 seats in the senate, 250 in the house, 34 Governor mansions, and  Biden loses all the swing states and at least one northern or western blue state.

[Person Man]

We need some public polling badly in this race. I believe that historically internals generally overrate their candidate by 7 points, so the last two Ciattarelli internals would suggest around Murphy +9/10 which seems reasonable. Hopefully Farleigh Dickinson or Monmouth can do another poll.

And put TMac at about 52-53%.