I see it becoming a swing state at least through the 2030s, although whether or not it will becoming solidly Democratic will depend on the strength of Maricopa county. While Phoenix is a reliably Democratic city, the county has ultraconservative suburban and rural areas, which outweighed the county until Biden. If Phoenix grows, I can see Arizona becoming the next Colorado or Oregon, otherwise I think it will end up like a 20th century version of Missouri or Ohio, where it votes for the winner. Demographically I think the influx of moderate-conservative voters from California as well as Midwest/Western retirees could slow down the states Dem trend similar to Nevada, but I don't think it will become the conservative stronghold it was through most of the 20th century. I see senators like McCain, Flake, and Sinema representing the future and the state becoming at least a short-term hub for moderates. The Goldwater and Meecham days are over, but I don't think we'll be seeing politicians like Bernie or AOC, unless Phoenix grows to the size of Denver.
Phoenix is bigger than Denver. It's just way more spread out. That's probably why Florida votes more like a typical outer suburb than a city.
