Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Person Man]

I wonder if the entire speaker ordeal hurts VA Republicans right now.

Probably not much. This doesn’t have an immediate impact on the lives of federal workers in the way that a shutdown would have.

It makes the prospect of the shutdown happen that much more possible.

[Person Man]

Still pretty consistent with now over 100K+

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1709598544636633452

 I'm guessing we are heading for another 2022 style result maybe?

[Person Man]

Pretty rich of VA GOP to complain about RNC not helping when Youngkin's PAC is basically sending them like $1M a day at this point

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1709894988576833871

Maybe they aren’t too good with money?

[Person Man]

Not sure why, but inner NOVA has dramatically lower turnout than the rest of the state so far.  Maybe VBM is disproportionate there and will come in later? 

And it is somewhat heartening that the partisan turnout is where it is even with DC not turning out yet.

[Person Man]

Iirc early vote in 2021 was D +21 and E-day was R +13. 42% of the vote was early.

I thought it was D+15-16. And the turnout trends were reversed with those numbers.

[Person Man]

So the mainstream consensus is that the best the Republicans can hope for is a draw? Maybe a senate seat for two house seats.

[Person Man]

So the mainstream consensus is that the best the Republicans can hope for is a draw? Maybe a senate seat for two house seats.

Continuing Republican control of the HoD is quite plausible, especially after the scandal in that Richmond seat, but their current 52 seats is probably the ceiling.

So the best plausible GOP performance is the status quo.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1711350788465803643?t=HPG8NSrg3wyZDcfMyNk...

So probably the likely electorate is a bit more than D+1.

Democrats probably won’t win back the house with those numbers, but they are in good shape in the Senate. It’ll probably be a wash. Even in 2021, Republicans didn’t out turnout Democrats.

The only reason Republicans sweep is if they are being awarded, instead of being punished, for abortion. If they are being punished for it, the only question is how badly they will lose.

If its like 2022, Democrats probably barely sweep.

[Person Man]

Yeah, unfortunate that we keep getting mostly co/efficient polls, but if even they are getting a D+1 electorate, it's likely even bluer.

You can't be sure though - in 2021 at this point internal polling from both sides showed a tie, while public polls showed a Lean D race.

I mean this is basically an internal GOP poll.

I’m OK as seeing this as a typical good case for Republicans. If they do any better, I would be inclined to believe that abortion HELPED Republicans.

[Person Man]

Glad Ds are keeping up with the Youngkin $$$ onslaught

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1711345510265581875

It would be outrageous if Republicans get a blank check in a Biden +10 state. Democrats are done next year if they can't keep any power even in Virginia.

[Person Man]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

That would line up with a D+2 result.

[Person Man]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

That would line up with a D+2 result.

I mean if he's referring to VA SD-07, selectively choosing one data point doesn't help, and arguably fulfils the "lies, damn lies, and stats" quote.

We can alternatively say that SD-07 was 51.6% - 47.5% Youngkin. So the environment at the time of the January Special was by that benchmark, was a 6-point swing from the 2021 election or implying a 52-48 or D+4 Dem environment.

Or we can say compare it to the 2022 Congressional elections within the district, which was  52-48 Dem. Therefore the shift would be R+2 to reach the special results. This would imply a 50.5-49.5 two-party environment statewide, shifted from 51.6-48.4, or D+1.

And the congressional election benchmark itself leads us into questions of incumbency, fundraising advantages, and all that other stuff and how it varies by district. Cause despite the 2022 statewide result being D+2 combined in straight two party, and then us reducing Dems by 1 and increasing R's by 1 to reach D+1, like the special election would suggest, Dem's still get 22-18 in the state senate and 50-49-1 in the State House, with HD-21 having a de facto tied R two-party lead of 44 votes.

So basically completely split down the middle government

[Person Man]

In 2023, the main competitive special election saw a shift from Biden +10 to Rouse +1.7.

Republicans probably do better in higher profile elections than in special elections (they did do better in the actual 2022 midterms than the special elections preceding it, and all the evidence so far shows that this will be a relatively high turnout election), which at least means that Republicans should flip Biden +8.8 SD-24, though the incumbency advantage is unclear.

That would line up with a D+2 result.

I mean if he's referring to VA SD-07, selectively choosing one data point doesn't help, and arguably fulfils the "lies, damn lies, and stats" quote.

We can alternatively say that SD-07 was 51.6% - 47.5% Youngkin. So the environment at the time of the January Special was by that benchmark, was a 6-point swing from the 2021 election or implying a 52-48 or D+4 Dem environment.

Or we can say compare it to the 2022 Congressional elections within the district, which was  52-48 Dem. Therefore the shift would be R+2 to reach the special results. This would imply a 50.5-49.5 two-party environment statewide, shifted from 51.6-48.4, or D+1.

And the congressional election benchmark itself leads us into questions of incumbency, fundraising advantages, and all that other stuff and how it varies by district. Cause despite the 2022 statewide result being D+2 combined in straight two party, and then us reducing Dems by 1 and increasing R's by 1 to reach D+1, like the special election would suggest, Dem's still get 22-18 in the state senate and 50-49-1 in the State House, with HD-21 having a de facto tied R two-party lead of 44 votes.

So basically completely split down the middle government

The best comparison for a state level election should be other state level elections.  I would focus on the swing away from Youngkin as the benchmark.  Maybe fudge it a bit for Dems benefiting from special election turnout, but it's also not clear if we would expect a Dem advantage with the highest turnout voters in a district like that one.  

In any event, a Biden +8ish cutoff would narrowly give Dems both chambers.  A Biden +9ish cutoff could tie the HoD but probably still means a modest Dem advantage.

Is there any internal polling or other data that ie Chaz Nuttycombe and you are seeing?

I'm seeing mostly Tie to D +2 from the polls released so far, which suggests a modest D advantage in the Senate and a tossup House (which is what Joe Szymanski is predicting), but you and Chaz both seem more bullish for Democrats than this. It also suggests that Republicans are still in the game for a trifecta, if late polling movement goes the way of 2021/2022.

No special data, just the polling  which is averaging like D+1 in the PV and generally coming from R-affiliated outfits (though I suppose it's notable that there hasn't been any counter polling released from D-affiliated outfits with state leg Dems running nearly even with Biden), combined with the historical observation that a modest swing against the governor's party is the norm in the 3rd year elections and that Dems tend to outperform with low turnout in highly educated suburbs (so I am relatively more bullish for D's in upscale districts and R's in downscale districts).  Finally, I think there's enough of a status quo/split ticket bias with high info off-year voters that R's holding or tieing the HoD while D's do very well in the state senate (like getting to 23) is an underrated possibility.

It would be billed as the harbinger of a looming status-quo election where dysfunction is seen as preferable because Democrats still have no answers for things such as migration, certain forms of defiant sexual behavior, crime, and inflation while Republicans are seen as toxic as being too extreme on trying to control sexual behavior, too willing to do whatever they want to get what they want in terms of democracy and general process, on foreign policy, and simply having the economic policy of good tax cuts cut with bad tax cuts and that "our guy is really rich".

[Person Man]

The RNC is right to not invest money. With so few competitive seats and the enourmous amount of money Youngkin has raised, we are deep into diminishing returns for additional spending.

So that would be evidence that the RNC's "job is already done", but the fact that this request was even brought up probably confirms that local Republicans seem to not think they can win on their own or at least not win decisively.

[Person Man]

Seems like a fairly useless poll since there isn't a generic ballot, but unsurprisingly Dems are way more trusted on abortion (net +7) than Republicans (net -17)

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1712145457764315285

Speaking of, the stupid wing of the Virginia GOP decided to run on abortion anyway. I saw an ad this morning supporting Youngkin's 15-week abortion ban, saying it polls well, Democrats are the extreme ones on this issue, etc. But it's clear those polls don't mean very much for Republicans outside the Deep South and this issue is a landmine for Republicans in Virginia.

Democrats just need to bring up what DeSantis did in Florida. Real dick move. He passed a 15 week abortion bill before the last election and a heartbeat bill afterwards. Republicans shouldn’t be trusted on this issue.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/becky_btru/status/1713889542665617586

Who is this person?

[Person Man]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

I don't like to read to much into early votes but this isn't positive news for Republicans.

Many democrats vote for Republicans in Virginia. That's why every seat under Biden+12 is a toss-up

Still. The abortion thing will be interesting. It’s basically the type of issue that got Reagan Democrats to become Republicans.

[Person Man]

Yet another D+1 generic ballot poll!

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2023-10-17.html

This one is completely non-partisan.  Note lots of undecideds.  The issue polling after the generic ballot question looks pretty great for Dems on the surface.  Their position is leading on everything polled.

R' almost surely need a PV lead to flip the state senate.  D's probably need a PV lead to flip the HoD, but that's less certain.  The expected outcome might even be a 50/50 tie.

Even a 15 week ban here in unpopular. Have no idea how Republicans win or even don’t lose. If this race is really this nationalized, the only way Republicans sweep is if they are, at least right now, going to carry it in 2024.

[Person Man]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

In Henrico, I only saw two EV locations as open when I voted. One on the west-end of town and one way out on the east end of town. I live at the far west end. It was only there that I realized that I live in Willet's House District, not the one with the revenge porn.

[Person Man]

Is it correct that NOVA is still suffering from lower turnout? Is this something that should have Dems worried, or is it more likely that most of these voters are election day voters?

As of now, turnout is systematically higher in Safe R districts than in Safe D districts and the inner NOVA safe seats have the lowest turnout in the state.  Do note that several NOVA counties open additional early voting sites starting next week.  Rural counties generally have only one early voting location throughout, usually at the county seat.  In Fairfax, which currently has very low turnout, only 3 locations are currently open for a county of over 1 million people, but 13 additional locations open next week.

Thank you for this context; some on ET and those pushing certain agendas have seemingly left out this information that seems pretty crucial.

FWIW we do have to be very careful making assumptions from EV turnout.  I recall this very same "NOVA is lagging" discussion last year and Dems ended up doing fine, particularly in the that part of the state.  Going back to 2021, it looked like rural turnout was lagging dramatically during EV, particularly in the mountains, but Republicans won everything anyway.

Things are probably where we think they are. It's close. There's probably a lot of undecideds, and they control the outcomes between R holding all their seats and letting Sears control the senate to the Democrats winning the house and gaining in the senate.

[Person Man]

Seems to be getting worse for Rs as voting continues

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1713906468913598848

What were the numbers at this point in 2021??

Something like D +21 early vote with 1.2M early voters.

If true this is at best a 4% shift left, which I guess means we narrowly win Virginia but that says a lot worse about the national environment…

Youngkin's win, and his coattails, didn't end up meaning much for 2022.

That's a federal race. A lot different ballgame.

Sure, but there were tons of takes in 2021 that the bad results for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia were signs of an environment that would be brutal for Democrats and subsist through 2022. There were even near-identical swings from 2020 to 2021. Evidently, they didn't mean much, and that could remain true for this year's elections going into next year.

You are forgetting one little event in 2022 that changed the calculus nationwide.

And Youngkin himself wants you to remember it.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1716458851510141187

Holding steady with two weeks left, I guess.

[Person Man]

Feels a bit over the top and maybe counterproductive for Republicans. Also maybe some desperation?

https://twitter.com/chaznuttycombe/status/1716658935178911966?s=46

Gross.

Yes.

[Person Man]

R share of in-person EV is clearly up compared to post-COVID history.  Question is whether this is new people or people who would have voted day-of in 2021?

The overall electorate will be R+, but according to Chaz Nuttycombe the swing district electorate will be D+.

The electorate was D+2 in 2021, I can't imagine it would be R this year.

I think it will be R given that Ds aren’t turning in inner NoVa, but it doesn’t give Rs a trifecta since Democrats are turning out in swing seats.

aren't several of those seats unopposed?

I’ve noticed that the predictions have been consolidated in the Democratic direction.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1719069212453536021

Things are holding at D+25, which is probably pretty good if you consider that there are a lot of non contested races in the DC area.