AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Person Man]

So 538 dropped Masters chances of winning yesterday from 22 to 19. Unless I missed another poll all that was released yesterday was a Data for Progress poll showing a 48-47 Kelly lead which ironically is the best poll for Masters so far lol. Yet that alone drops him 3 points. I swear to god, part of me wants either Masters or OZ to win just to Silver can have egg on his face.

I mean, everyone would have egg on their face. Masters hasn't led a single poll.

The Red Baron will be fixing that.

[Person Man]

Hadn't realized how much of a dweeb Blake Masters was. Guy has no charisma.

Isn’t he some sort of a weird crypto savant?

[Person Man]

I don't think anyone was that good. The Libertarian prevents any candidate from getting too much momentum. Even if one candidate has a good line of attack, they are also playing defense because the Libertarian can always come in. It wasn't a complete back and forth where a candidate can get the upper hand on an issue It's back, forth, back, Libertarian argues with the moderator about time and sneaks in an attack, then end of question.

Kelly isn't a great speaker but he comes across as moderate and normal. Masters can speak better but he's a little creepy. This shouldn't change much.

The real important debates are in GA and mostly PA. If Walker can seem like he has a two-digit amount of brain cells, he could right the ship a bit.

If Fetterman is too impaired, that could make his health concerns more salient and really change the race. Oz has some rhetorical skills from TV and Fetterman has trouble knocking even softball questions out of the park because of his language issues from the stroke. Fetterman could accidentally say something costly if he can't find the right words.

Given what happened at that press conference yesterday, I wouldn't bet on it

Testing the power of expectations.

[Person Man]

The new OHPI poll shows Kelly +13 but with Victor, the Libertarian, at 15 (reference).  Question for Arizona folks: is Victor actually gaining traction or is this just a weird poll?

What do you think?

[Person Man]

Lol all y’all comparing current senate races to previous senate races are a bit silly. Every senate race has its own very unique circumstances and there’s never 2 that are truly parallel, maybe some mild similarities at best.

History rhymes, right?