Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 36,667
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« on: July 07, 2020, 03:24:25 PM » |
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« edited: July 10, 2020, 02:24:56 PM by Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More »
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A simple Naive Baynes analysis would say that a second term Democrat will be there on that day.
In our current situation since the ratification of presidential term limits, we have had 4 presidents run for their party's second term and all but 1 won. That's 75% for Trump.
We have had all but 1 president complete their second turn in office. That's 85%.
We only had one president win a third term for their party. 80% chance for a Flip.
And using the first parameter, we get another 75% for the D president it flipped to.
That's a 75*85*80*75 percent chance that it will be a second term democratic president. About a 36% chance.
I mean, there are only 4 possibilities so far observed right? A first or second term R or D president. right?
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