Who will be President on this day in 2030?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Let’s get some future cold takes going. Think back to 2010—did you picture Donald Trump as President in 10 years? If so, you might be Roger Stone.

I’m going to say that Biden will be President from 2021-2025, his VP (doesn’t matter who it is) will be President from 2025-2029 and I’m going to say that this President will be a Republican. The likeliest candidates would be Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, Josh Hawley, Ron DeSantis, and Tom Cotton. I think it’ll be someone who will become the opposition leader under the next Democratic administration, so likely a Senator. And they have to be a Trump acolyte and fairly young. So that leaves Cotton and Hawley as the likeliest candidates. I’m going to go with Cotton, who could very well become the GOP leader in the Senate once McConnell retires.

But I will, of course, be terribly wrong and it’ll probably be Tucker Carlson or Alex Jones or something.

[Mr. Morden]

To state the obvious, there are two scenarios:

1) The person elected president in 2028 (who would thus still be president in 2030, barring death, resignation, or impeachment) is someone being elected to the office for the first time.

2) The person elected president in 2028 (who, again, would thus still be president in 2030, barring death, resignation, or impeachment) is someone who was running as the incumbent president in 2028, meaning that they most likely were first elected in 2024.

I don't know that either of those scenarios is particularly more likely than the other.  But for #1, the identity of the person is more unpredictable, because we have to speculate over who might be in the mix for an open nomination contest 8 years from now.  There are just way too many people who it might be.

So then if we're talking *most likely*, it's really #2 that dominates the probability: Who might first be elected in 2024 and then reelected in 2028.  At this point, gotta go with Kamala Harris, since I think she's the odds on favorite to be Biden's veep, setting her up for 2024.  Not that she would necessarily win in 2024, and then win reelection in 2028, but it's more likely than any other individual.  Could also be a Republican, but there are too many possibilities on that side.  Pence is presumably the 2024 GOP frontrunner, but it's pretty wide open.

[rhg2052]

I will go with Kamala Harris, in the middle of her second term as President after serving as Biden's VP.

[MATTROSE94]

Probably Kamala Harris in her second term (I have her defeating a Tom Cotton/Cindy Hyde-Smith ticket in 2024 and a Greg Abbott/Donald Trump Jr. ticket in 2028). For the 2032 Democratic nomination, Vice President Pete Buttigieg would be the clear favorite and Ron DeSantis would be favored to win the 2032 Republican nomination.

[President Johnson]

Kamala Harris. Hard to predict now, but I'm saying she will be president from 2025 to 2033, succeeding President Joe Biden.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nikki Haley

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Likely a republican, whomever defeats Kamala in either 2024 or 2028.

[MABA 2020]

It's most likely to be Harris or some Republican, but hey I've got my fingers crossed for AOC

[LimoLiberal]

Elise Stefanik

[dw93]

A Democrat who didn’t serve as Biden’s VP. I think, as of now, Biden will beat Trump this year, a Republican will beat his VP in 2024 and that Republican will lose in 2028.

[brucejoel99]

Kamala or Warren.

[Person Man]

A simple Naive Baynes analysis would say that a second term Democrat will be there on that day.

In our current situation since the ratification of presidential term limits, we have had 4 presidents run for their party's second term and all but 1 won.  That's 75% for Trump.

We have had all but 1 president complete their second turn in office. That's 85%.

We only had one president win a third term for their party. 80% chance for a Flip.

And using the first parameter, we get another 75% for the D president it flipped to.

That's a 75*85*80*75 percent chance that it will be a second term democratic president. About a 36% chance.

I mean, there are only 4 possibilities so far observed right? A first or second term R or D president. right?

 

                                           

[Cassandra]

One of the Trump kids.

[hurricanehink]

AOC

[ShadowRocket]

Whomever Biden picked for VP and who is by then halfway through her second term.  So probably Harris, but fingers crossed for Warren.

[Orwell]

John Thune, why you may ask? Cuz

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Eric Holcomb

[Ferguson97]

Kamala Harris (2025-2033)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A bit risky, but I'll send the boat out there now before VP-selection: Kamala Harris in her first - and last - term.

[Former President tack50]

Josh Hawley, on his 2nd term after defeating Harris or Biden in 2024 and another Democrat in 2028

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully,  Joe Kennedy after 2 terms of Biden

[bagelman]

Hopefully,  Joe Kennedy after 2 terms of Biden

No no no no NO NO NO.

NO MORE KENNEDYS!!!!

[Nightcore Nationalist]

Whomever Biden picked for VP and who is by then halfway through her second term.  So probably Harris, but fingers crossed for Warren.

I'm not sure why it's such a common belief on here that Warren will be Biden's VP nominee, she's one of the weakest possible options and even Klobuchar and Buttigieg would be stronger.  She'll also be 81 by 2030.

[S019]

Harris, as she's in the middle of her second term. I don't think Republicans will win the presidency again until 2032 or 2036, given their coming Sunbelt struggles, and how they haven't yet figured out how to replace those lost votes.

[Del Tachi]

Gavin Newsom in the middle of his first term