Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

Georgia: Battleground Connect, March 31-April 1, 1035 LV

This is an internal poll for the Doug Collins (R) Senate campaign.

Trump favorability (not approval): 48/46.  Trump leads Biden by the same 48-46 margin.

Best case scenario has Trump two up in Georgia?

[Person Man]

Georgia: Battleground Connect, March 31-April 1, 1035 LV

This is an internal poll for the Doug Collins (R) Senate campaign.

Trump favorability (not approval): 48/46.  Trump leads Biden by the same 48-46 margin.

Best case scenario has Trump two up in Georgia?

You love to see it.

You know what I mean by "best case".

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

[Person Man]

Florida: U. of North Florida, March 31-April 4, 3244 RV

Note: this is approval of the coronavirus outbreak only (NOT general approval):

Approve 45 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 43)

How much they trust Trump to provide reliable information on the pandemic:

A great deal 27
A fair amount 14
Not much 13
Not at all 45

They also asked the general election matchup:

Biden 46
Trump 40

“I would exercise caution when looking at these numbers, first these are registered voters – not likely voters; second, the campaign season has screeched to a grinding halt and people are rightly less focused on politics,” Binder warns. “Although, this same sample of voters when asked who they voted for in 2016, indicated a very slight advantage for Trump, suggesting that something may be changing in Florida ahead of the election."

I don't understand the bolded parts.

It means they asked this same set of people who they supported in 2016, and a slight majority of those polled said they had voted for Trump.

That's what I thought. It could have meant that those 2016 numbers translated into an advantage for Trump now (the polls shows he did worse with 2016 than 2020 when he won in 2016). It appears that it's the opposite.

I imagine that at this point, for Trump to win, he will have to either campaign very well or Biden's campaign will have to do very poorly. For Kevin McCarthy to win the Speakership, both will have to happen.

I don't even think McCarthy wins the speakership in that situation either. I have no idea which way the presidential election is going, but I think the House is Likely D. The Senate is looking increasingly Lean D.

I don't really think the Presidency could be anything less than lean D if the senate was.

I'm thinking of pickups in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and maybe elsewhere in the South, some of which could be winnable despite losing the POTUS race in each state.

It could be conceivable that Democrats are able to bail on Biden and run as a check on Trump like what happened in 1996.

[Person Man]

Because it improved among Democrats.

"Democrats."

Think the entire Trump Democrat thing might be a real thing? That because of the crisis, there's a lot more Economically Liberal, Socially Conservative types that feel at home under Trump? That's probably a bullsh**t theory, though but strange times...

[Person Man]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 6-7, 1116 adults (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

They have not (yet) published strongly approve/disapprove or RV numbers this week (they're sometimes oddly inconsistent that way).

Like clockwork...

[Person Man]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

Don’t think so.

Coronavirus was overhyped, so Trump looks victorious in a few weeks for defeating the virus with minimal death (as compared to models and projections). Economy will come back soon thereafter. Wins re election just like GWB.

Tens of thousands of people are projected to   have lost  their lives and tens of millions have lost their jobs...

FTFY

[Person Man]

We still have 6 mnths til the election here and incumbent approvals tend to lag. Bush Sr came back in the final days of the campaign but as we know Ross Perot cost his reelection,  Bush W came back and so did Obama. There has been no campaigning

Biden will replicate the 279 EC map but a wipe out is far from assured

Obama was never really behind. It was really tough trying to spin that first Presidential Debate in 2012. He fell to dead even with Romney until the next debate. Biden was kind of a dick in the Veep debate, but Ryan deserved it. I guess Bush looked DOA in June, so there is precedent for president to "come back". However, Carter was doing OK until the middle of Fall. He was actually tied in some final round of polling.

[Person Man]

Trump is collapsing

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1250844159684030468?s=20

If that trend goes on, he will be C(r)artered in November.

He's just going back to normal. If he somehow wins because enough people in the Great Lakes and Florida "forget" to vote again, he will probably be in the high 20s once people realize they can't vote for him again.

[Person Man]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

Part of me would've loved to have been politically aware (or...alive, even) during America Decides '92.  Seems like such an interesting and unique election. 

I turned 7 that year. It was the first election I remember a lot of.

[Person Man]

The country is getting ready to open up, Trump approvals are gonna improve

The story will then shift to the fact that we are broke.

[Person Man]

The country is getting ready to open up, Trump approvals are gonna improve

45 thousand people are still dead and we are still in recession
So no trump is not going to improve at all........

if anything his approval going to get a lot worse since the 1000 dollar checks trump has been hyping up wont be nearly enough to help many as this recession drags on over the next few months

I predict there will be A backlash against both trump and the GOP once people really start to feel the pain of this ongoing recession

I hope your right, but I've been waiting three and a half years for the backlash against Trump, it's been disappointingly small so far

Were you asleep during the 2018 midterms or

It wasn't enough for the Senate but the backlash against Obama wasn't enough for the senate, either.

[Person Man]

According to 538, Trump is near -9 again. He tends to be around there during election years.

[Person Man]

Florida: Quinnipiac, April 16-20, 1385 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

COVID-19 handling: Approve 46, Disapprove 51

Biden 46, Trump 42

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1253029764060852224

I can believe that the lightest shades of states contain a sigma above 1 of all outcomes.

[Person Man]

Betting Odds are firmly Trump.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Egh, betting odds aren't a great metric.  

And besides, Trump +6 is pretty poor for an incumbent during a time when the country should be uniting behind its leader.  

For an impeached Russian agent who is both dumb and a criminal genius, and is also simultaneously in dementia, I would say those are very good betting odds for all of that.

Still, betting odds tell you what people think might happen, not necessarily the actual likelihood of an outcome.  There's an important separation (betting odds vs. voting intention polling)

For instance, I think Trump will win in November, but I won't be voting for him.  

Even after all this? What do you think is his most likely path?

People are still probably expecting him to win by inertia or at least that Biden will have the same "missing voter" problems that Hillary or Romney had or the problem that Kerry and Hillary had with undecideds.

[Person Man]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

How does that even work? I guess everyone who is withholding judgment is going to vote against him?

Maybe he can win back all those people but that still wouldn't be enough. The only way he wins is if people don't vote. A lot of people still believe or at least suspect that he will 1) run a much better campaign than Biden and be ahead by September or 2) catch up enough that he pull off another upset when there are millions of "missing voters" with many of them  in Michigan and Wisconsin.

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

[Person Man]

I guess he's growing on people, huh?

More likely, weekly trackers like YouGov and Ipsos are noisy.

Gold star.  Usually when you see big fluctuations from week to week in these trackers, it's worth looking at the underlying samples.  In the YouGov polls, this week's party ID breakdown was D 35%, R 28%, I 37%, while last week's was 36/25/39.  This week's sample is less D and more R than last week, so it's not really surprising that this week is better for Trump.

Having said that, I wouldn't assume that all the movement is due to sample difference.  There does appear to be some improvement in Trump's approval across multiple polls.  So the combination of that increase plus the sample composition yields a big change in the YouGov poll.

How much could the samples reflect people moving to the right?

Could be random selection and/or differential non-response (often seen after news affecting one side, usually temporary).  Could be some other factor, or any combination of these.

My guess is that its the Reade fiasco. Luckily, the polls appear to confirm that the only people who believe her are people who want to and it still does look like Biden has a bigger threat to his left than to his right. Democrats downballot are still gaining. Like I said, maybe if Biden does turn out to be a dud and there is still a demand for change, Democrats can go the same route Republicans did in 1996 and tell voters that they are a check on Trump.

[Person Man]

he has made sexual contact with Reade due to his performance on the Anita Hill confirmation hearings

Normally your posts have a very thin strand connecting all the disparate points, but that makes zero sense.

I think he is saying that the Reada thing probably happened because Biden went to the defense of Thomas.

[Person Man]

Trump's steady rise in the polls continues.

Economist/YouGov 47 (46)
CNN 46 (44)
TheHill 51 (50)
Reuters 45 (43)

Reuters/Ipsos has Trump at 41. YouGov had his net approval higher last week. CNN's is basically the same as it was last time around. Hill is junk.

Beet should probably get his facts straight before posting.

If anything, Trump went down a little in the 538 aggregate today.

[Person Man]

42% appears to be the amount of people who will never not vote for Trump. A landslide against him is possible, if everyone who can be convinced to not vote for Trump votes for Biden.

[Person Man]

Trump has a general election floor of 46%. Luckily sleepy Joe doesn’t garner much enthusiasm so Trump can easily win EC with 47%+

Even Trump isn't going to win being down 5000000 votes nationwide.

[Person Man]

Biden isnt up by 8.7 in a natl poll, more like 3 to 5 points, Bradley effect, but Biden can win AZ, MI, WI and PA. For a max of 290 EC votes. 330 to 413 is perception v 278 to 290 reality. If Dems are leading in MS and LA at Prez poll, I wouldnt take MSN polls seriously

Bradley effect? He isn't black unless you are saying the shy Trump vote is the same as lying about not voting for a black candidate.  I guess you could say in both situations people are being defensive about their racism by lying to pollsters.

Could lying to pollsters be a new fascist tactic to disrupt the campaigns of democratic candidates? Weirder things exist. However, I doubt they could coordinate something like that unless compulsive lying is a thing that fascists do and can't stop doing. Also, the polls were right in 2018.