Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Person Man]

50-48 Rassy Hahahaha

First by-the-numbers poll showing positive approval for Trump since early May (if we exclude a tied poll during that sane time period), though Rassy and the Hill continue to be the only two non-tracking pollsters regularly showing a single-digit margin between Trump's approval/disapproval.  

I think it’s either:

A) a slight improvement in Trump’s numbers, as YouGov/Economist has showed us
B) Rassy trying to make it seem like Trump is rebounding, probably to please the President given no one believes their polls

Both are likely imo.

By allowing  benefits to expire and threatening the election

[Person Man]

2008 Palin was ruined the ticket, Trump is gaffe prone like Palin, but he doesnt ruin the ticket.

That's why today's poll shows Trump tied with Biden.

Biden isnt Obama either

Show me the tied poll bruh

The one no one is using from racist British tabloids.

[Person Man]

2008 Palin was ruined the ticket, Trump is gaffe prone like Palin, but he doesnt ruin the ticket.

That's why today's poll shows Trump tied with Biden.

Biden isnt Obama either

Show me the tied poll bruh

The one no one is using from racist British tabloids.

You mean The Sun?

That's what the Sun is, isn't it?

[Person Man]

2008 Palin was ruined the ticket, Trump is gaffe prone like Palin, but he doesnt ruin the ticket.

That's why today's poll shows Trump tied with Biden.

Biden isnt Obama either

Show me the tied poll bruh

The one no one is using from racist British tabloids.

You mean The Sun?

That's what the Sun is, isn't it?

That's what everything Rupert Murdoch owns is, isn't it?

I reckon.

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 2-4, 1500 adults including 1229 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 21 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+1)


RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Biden 49 (nc), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB: D 50 (+2), R 38 (-2)

That’s a big GCB gap.

[Person Man]

These Trump improvements are a bit disheartening.

I wonder if that EO actually did help him. It's not like he is working any harder or that he is "growing" on people.

[Person Man]

It's absolutely beyond my comprehension how around 43% of the electorate can still approve of this moron, after he completely ignored the biggest health crisis in 100+ years, with an economy in shatters and the daily madness and the corruption coming out of this WH. He's most likely going to lose in November anyway, but it's completely ridiculous that many people still approve him. His approvals should be at least in W 2008 territory. At least.

“He’s trying...”

[Person Man]

39% is a nice low number, but it would be great for it to go lower.

Has an American incumbent ever won re-election with a 39% approval rating?

The lowest is like 46. I think. Truman won with that. Obama and W were at like 49.

[Person Man]

Civiqs, Aug. 13-17, RV


Michigan (N=631):

Approve 42
Disapprove 55

Biden 49, Trump 46


Ohio (N=631):

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

Biden 47, Trump 47


Pennsylvania (N=617):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 44


Wisconsin (N=754):

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 51, Trump 45

Trump is then PROBABLY at about 40% nationally, give or take 2%.

[Person Man]

AP/NORC, Aug. 17-19, 1075 adults (1-month change)

Approve 35 (-3)
Disapprove 65 (+4)

Strongly approve 18 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

This has always been a bad pollster for Trump, but the above results are close to his worst; the only lower ones were two 32/67 polls in late 2017.  ETA: There was also a 34/65 in Jan. 2019.

Cold enough to snow. People are struggling and unhappy.

[Person Man]

They probably just added a McLaughlin and Associates poll. They also had Republicans winning in 2018.

[Person Man]

IBD/TIPP, Aug. 29-Sep. 1, 1033 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Biden 49 (+1), Trump 41 (nc)

Looks like the "Ehhhh... he ain't that bad" period might be coming to an end. But in the major aggregates, he's still in that 42-44 zone.  

With me thinking anything above 45-46% being "he's really grown on me. I kinda like him" and anything below 38-39% being "we're ready for a Democrat no matter what Fox says".

[Person Man]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

It was 42.6% beforehand.

[Person Man]

Trump 48% Approval, Fox News

The race is tightening. If Trump can hold onto recent high approvals (upper 40s), he will win the EC. Game on.

You're citing one outlier as "recent high approvals." That outlier brought his average up to a low 43% for Trump on 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=irpromo

That said, 43% is certainly a "higher approval" compared to the 40% he had in the depths of COVID + George Floyd protests.

In fact, 43.1% approval (the 538 avg today) is the highest at any point in Trump's presidency (Trump also hit 43.1% on 538 on Sept. 24, 2019)

Record first-term approval less than two months from election day should be the cover story.  Yet, headlining the 538 page today is some speculative click-bait about what would happen if Trump refuses to leave office (how many times have we all read this article before?) 

SEP. 9-13
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research   
C+
1,500   LV   0.81   
51%
48%
46%
49%
•   
SEP. 9-11
YouGov   
B
1,577   A   0.34   
41%
51%
42%
53%
•   
SEP. 8-10
Morning Consult   
B/C
1,989   RV   0.06   
41%
56%
40%
57%
•   
SEP. 7-10
Fox News   
A-
1,311   RV   2.08   
48%
51%
46%
51%
•   
SEP. 4-10
Opinium      2,000   A   0.85   
39%
46%
41%
49%

[Person Man]

What happens if Trump wins which he may very well can now, Trump isnt at 39 percent approvals, he is at 47 percent. That's why Trafalger will keep showing polls disputing this 413 EC map

Trump is within 2 in Pa
Trump is 1 pt behind in FL all within margin of error.

We only can predict, we cant see in future, until it happens

Not true, Trump's approval average is still an appalling 44%, if not lower.

He can't get about 44% either in vs Biden polling either.

He hasn't lead with any reputable pollster in any swing state the entire campaign.

Biden is over 50% nationally and ahead or competitive in 400+EV seats, 413 landslide incoming.

He can win between 44-46%, if there are enough people who honestly think he's that much of a mixed bag but still really want to vote. At this point, I think its going to be 46/47-53/54 on election day...which would mean Biden is winning by about 5-8%.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval rating is now higher than at any point in his presidency except immediately post-inauguration and during his pandemic bump. With just a month to go until his re-election, it continues to barrel higher with no sign of slowing.

Disapproval is still running about average or maybe Trump has finally broken the spirit of the nation. I still think the former and that we are just getting people to line up but I’m open to the latter.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval is higher than 41 '92 and Carter '80, but lower than Clinton, Bush or Obama.

All of them got roughly their net approval ratings in terms of NPV. HW and Carter did better because there was a third party alternative.

[Person Man]

Gallup (twice monthly), Sep. 30-Oct. 15, 1035 adults

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

This is Trump's last JA poll before the election. He can't with this.

[Person Man]

Reuters most recent Job Approval for Donald Trump is 38%.

10 days ago, 47% voted for him.

Good to see the polls are still bullsh**t.

I mean, he can have a 100% approval rating on January 19th for all I care.  He lost.

This happens after a candidate lose. People who felt they only voted for them because they were supposed go back to denying they supported them at all.

You know how I said that if the Democrats totally botched the election (instead of half botching it), that I would be reregistering as an Independent (I might still reregister as a Republican if I am in Florida for primaries)? Well, I'm not the only one who would distance themselves for those that can't deliver.