Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

Florida is now at -3.

[Person Man]

Morning Consult Map



https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

I corrected my map.



Florida is now at -3.

What's really interesting is that in whatever state he is underwater in, there is a majority that disapproves. I think, if he runs a much better campaign than the Democrats, he wins every states he's above -6 in except Virginia. If tangible goes wrong, he loses every state he's under 50%.

[Person Man]

The ironic thing is that Michigan May be the least affected by climates change out of most places.

[Person Man]

Texas: UT-Tyler, July 24-27, 1414 RV

Approve 40
Disapprove 54

O'Rourke 49, Trump 38
Warren 41, Trump 38
Sanders 39, Trump 37
Harris 40, Trump 39
Biden 37, Trump 37
Trump 39, Buttigieg 33

"Imagine if you will, a world where Texas votes to the left of the nation as a whole..."

In reality, it should. The fact that it doesn’t and the reasons it doesn’t has been ammo to many Republicans to call disadvantaged people stupid and lazy.

[Person Man]

IBD/TIPP (monthly), July 25-Aug. 1, 902 adults

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+7)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.

Wow. Huge swing.
And 538 rates this polling company with an A- grade.

I don’t think this means anything except that last sample might have oversampled Moderate Republicans who notoriously don’t have an opinion. 40% is still OK for Trump. Not good but OK. I mean, at this rate he will win if Democrats run a bad campaign and the economy remains propped up. What this does mean is that beyond a complete cataclysm, the House for Republicans  is gone until the next Democratic or non right of center administration.

[Person Man]

Figuring that Justin Amash is a potential conservative small-government alternative to big-government right-winger Donald Trump, I see a suggestion that he would hurt Trump as an independent or third-party candidate.

"Strong disapproval" is close to 50%, and I cannot imagine that for any President then seeking re-election since at least Jimmy Carter. "Strong disapproval" is also higher than total approval, as if that is unusual anymore.   

Maybe he would still just wins because enough people stay home because Democrats run a really bad campaign like they did in 2016 and 1988. I think that 2000 and 2004 swung the way did just because Bush ran a really good campaign.

[Person Man]

Who are these people who approve of Trump until his racism flares up or tragic racist events like Charlottesville or El Paso happen and then go back to supporting him?

People who only get their news from Fox News, InfoWars, One America News, or their local Sinclair-controlled TV station, and never hear any negative information about him.

More likely it's people who continue to support him 100% through this but simply stop admitting it publicly for a few weeks

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, Aug. 5-7, 1960 RV (prior poll June 29-July 1)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

I'm not sure what's up with Morning Consult lately.  They used to post a weekly tracker of RVs, but this is the first one I've seen in a while.  However, they have been posting a bunch of (rather noisy) polls of adults.

I can believe that as long as its still easy to get or keep a job, that 40-42% will be there. The main difference is that Trump's "populist" mix of extreme right wing social policies and "radical center" economics and his unwillingness to do anything but use the failure of his policies as a chance grandstand will cause those who don't have a strong opinion about him to start disapproving of him more. Maybe the only reason he ever got down to the mid to high 30s was because of the delays he encountered in attempting to deliver traditional republican policies. Once those delays were smoothed over, he improved to the 41-43 range because he had "improved" for many voters. What will probably happen is that in periods where his more unusual policies are papered over, many who disprove will stop having opinions and there will be some centrists who will give the devil his due because they got a promotion at work last year.

[Person Man]

McKinley edged Bryan in 1900.

SeanCody

Best line of 2020

We already have so many other things that just burn images into our mind...

[Person Man]

New Hampshire: Gravis, Aug. 2-6, 505 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Is Trump racist?

Yes 49
No 40

Trump loses head-to-head against all Democrats tested with margins from 3 (Harris) to 13 (Biden).

It is Gravis but a lot of their numbers are believable from time to time. Even that really conservative Republican internal that is always releasing just before elections... Trafalgar? At least those numbers are accurate under the assumption that Republican Machine will be out in force.

Given that I believe these numbers, the only way that Trump wins New Hampshire is that at least one state where the median voter is similar to the national median voter, finds it acceptable to vote for racists.

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 10-13, 1500 adults including

Adults:

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 24 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

Generic D 42 (+1), Trump 35 (-1)

RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

Generic D 50 (+2), Trump 39 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 38 (nc)

Probably noise but maybe more people are noticing the tariffs ?

[Person Man]

Safe to say that the Trump bump is over again. We have seen this pattern before. Trump going up or down only to return back to -9 to -10.

If he would just shut his mouth for 5 seconds and keep his Twitter silent for even longer, his approval would probably be pretty good.

I would say that the best he can do is probably where W or Obama stabilized at going into their reelection. That is, about even with about 5% undecided. Most of the undecideds would break his way letting him win by a few million votes and like 3 states.

[Person Man]

LOL Zogby

It actually brought his approval rating up from -12 to -11 which is probably about where it should be. Nothing has really changed since he first got elected. If he were "a real president" who just talked about forcing people to be free and how important it was to be religious (like the Bushes or Reagan), he would probably be either even or at +6. Instead he picks fight with people, says racist things and then claims he is the victim rather than the perpetrator of racism. On the other hand, if he were still Trump and all of the sudden business couldn't pay all the loans they have been getting back because people can't afford all the mark ups on their stuff because of the tariffs, he will probably go down to like where he was when he couldn't pass his tax bill.

[Person Man]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

Maybe they are on to something or maybe that something is able to make those delusions so.

[Person Man]

I can see that's where his numbers would be consistently if there was a recession. I don't think they can fall any lower than that unless he somehow wins reelection and then a recession happens. Unless Trump has truly taken over the GOP and its addiction to fad right-wing political philosophy ("Fusionism","Neoconservatism","Compassionate Conservatism", "Alt-Right/Lite", etc..), I can see the party machine sensing that he has outlived their purpose for him.(that they originally didn't want anyways) Then because his presidency is in tatters and him not able to run again anyways,  they will throw him under the bus so they can "run against themselves" in 2024. At this point the surrogate for the third term would probably but not necessarily be Pence.

[Person Man]

AP/NORC, Aug. 15-19, 1058 adults (change from June)

Approve 36 (-2)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

R: 79/20
D: 5/95
I: 31/65

Strongly approve 21 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since the shutdown.

Possible outlier? Change first appears as outliers. The strong disapproval has changed less than the margin of error, and it is now 10% above total approval. But note well that much of the not-so-strong disapproval now seems significantly higher. People go from neither disapproval nor disapproval or from slight approval to slight disapproval unless one sudden event destroys all credibility in a large constituency.

100-DIS gives an estimated 38% vote share for the President, which is just worse than for Hoover in 1932.

Just looking at the topline figures, one thing that jumps out is that the poll's sample is only 63% non-Hispanic white (compared to 71% in the CNN 2016 exit poll, and 72% in the 2018 exit poll). Furthermore, 44% are Democrats or lean-D independents, while 35% are Republicans or lean-R independents. It's not unusual for Democrats to have a slight edge here, but it's not normal for it to be as high as 9%.

So, the sample looks to be too D-friendly, but I'd be interested to see the crosstabs for this.

Yeah. There’s no way Trump gets less than 44% even though he’s literally acting like the Beast right now. The Beast was actually a real person and Ironically, most of the settled world converted to Catholicism after he died.

[Person Man]

Emerson, Aug. 24-26, 1458 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+6)

Biden 54, Trump 46
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 50, Trump 50
Harris 50, Trump 50
Trump 51, Buttigieg 49

Probably just passed over an outlier. Trump is neither terribly unpopular or popular at all.

[Person Man]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2019/08/28/2020-biden-leads-democrats-voters-dread-election/2120726001/

Suffolk, Aug. 20-25, 1000 RV (change from June)

Approve 44 (-5)
Disapprove 54 (+6)

Again, another poll showing him to be either controversial or even modestly popular now shows him as being moderately unpopular.

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3638

Quinnipiac, Aug. 21-26, 1422 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+3)

50% strongly disapprove?
Unless Trump can restore his reputation as a "rainmaker", he will lose. By a lot.

[Person Man]

GCB (RV only): D 48 (+1), R 37 (-1)

At the congressional level, 2020 is going to be an even bigger blowout than 2018.

I can see the house being more elastic still.

[Person Man]

Maybe this hurricane will cause the 40-43rd%tile voter to rally behind the president again. DeSantis is a vassal of the Trump bureaucracy and they will do everything to turn this into an opportunity to look like effective and moderate "compassionate conservatives". Obama paved the way with hugging Christie during Sandy.

[Person Man]

FL only votes Dem in a landslide, 2016 has taught us this and 2018. FL isnt California.

You can win the house but you can’t win the senate or the presidency without them yet.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1168291326892412928

My strategy would be to try to make Trump look inevitable if by this time next year, he’s at least even in Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina and only behind by like 2 or 3 in any freiwall state. The Democratic narrative should be that we need Democrats in the house as a check on Trump. If he’s even in Michigan, up 2 or 3 in Florida, it becomes a duh issue.

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.