Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

With the Mueller investigation losing it's heat and the economy continuing to be good, it's likely that Trump's numbers will continue to rise the next few months.

Haha. No.

Maybe if people kind of give up. Just hope a Democrat never get into office because they might be tempted to simply bully the populace into complacency. Some, if not most, Republicans think Obama probably won again that way.

[Person Man]

Iowa: PPP, April 29-30, 780 RV

Approve 49
Disapprove 49

2020: Trump 48, generic D 48

iowa is going to be close if Trump is losing. It's not if he's winning. I think it will run about 5 points right instead of 10 points right of the nation but there is still a lot trade war left.

[Person Man]

I think if the media keeps showing that the economy is good, Trump will probably win the popular vote and some, if not all, the states he at least almost won last time minus one or two barely won. Minor third parties will probably keep him from a majority and I see him losing Michigan and Pennsylvania but winning New Hampshire, Maine At-Large, and Nevada.

[Person Man]

Trump is at -6.9 in rcp today.

That’s got to be approaching one of the lower spreads he has had, right?

Here’s something to ponder:

What if the “investigation of the investigators” finds illegal behavior on the part of fbi officials? John Durham is as respected as mueller. That would play into trump’s Narratives and would rally the base big time and spike turnout

He's balanced out in the 538 one. I don't see how he does any better with the new trade war.

[Person Man]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Poor Zogby.

And he's doing BETTER with young voters. Maybe they really are just angry basement dwellers who blamed illegal immigration for being poor and abortion for being virgins

[Person Man]

Morning Consult/Politico, May 10-12, 1995 RV (1-week change)

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

Vote to reelect Trump?

Definitely Trump 27 (nc)
Probably Trump 10 (nc)
Probably someone else 7 (nc)
Definitely someone else 48 (+2)

GCB (no prior): D 43, R 37

As suspected. It appears, at least on the surface, that anyone who wants to vote for Trump at all will definitely vote for him and that those who really don't want him will vote straight ticket democrat. My guess that the swing vote will be the voters who are a little upset with him but are still curious or hold out some hope. My guess is that about 7% of the voters are among them and the rest are split about 48 to 44-ish.  

[Person Man]

Presented without comment:

Zogby, May 2-9, 852 LV

Approve 51
Disapprove 48

Oh my God, highly honourable Zogby!

Change since  FEB 14-17, 2019:
Approval 51% (+7)
Disapproval 48% (-5).

That's a swing of 12% towards your favourite President Donald J Trump. Complete and total EXONERATION! 

Who knows. Maybe he will get lucky with Zogby.

[Person Man]

LOL I love how Zogby puts out a poll showing millennials, of all people, approving of Trump and not expecting at least some credibility problems.

"Ehhhh....he's a fatass mongoloid rapist who is literally turning our planet into Venus but hey... I can't complain".

[Person Man]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

[Person Man]

It’s strange that people are focused on the RCP average while ignoring the 538 one which has been a lot more consistent and honestly more trustworthy.

RCP is fake news. They are accurate when they have to be but they thought the democrats were only going to barely take the house. NS only underestimated them by 2 or 3 seats. FWIW, HE underestimated them almost as bad as RCP did. RR thought they would LOSE seats but TBF, a lot of people were thinking that way when Donnely was getting his ass handed to him and Democrats were underperforming in the first  Bible Belt seats. The discussion quickly changed when Republicans started falling like flies in NJ and VA and McGraff was looking decent. 

[Person Man]

I think the trade war and these southern and southernized states passing Shariah law is probably taking its toll.

Nuh. Today's YouGov, MAY 13-14:
45/50 (1000 Adults)
45/53 (765 RV)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3bgeacw1lw/tabs_Trump_Tweets_20190513.pdf


Basically, no significant movements since shutdown.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Gosh, that's jumpy. But maybe what we have is what we have unless there is some sort of black swan.
It's either enough for him to just get enough to the polls in 2020 or for him to lose like McCain or 41 did.

[Person Man]

Trump's approval has been on the rise, just as I predicted it would when the Democrat Party snatched control of the House from the Paul 'lyin' Ryan GOP. Political developments over the past few months have made me realize I'd rather have San Fran Nan over the Ayn Rand Fanboy any day, because Trump can only benefit from being America's bulwark against the creeping rise of $ocialism, unfettered migration, and legitimate bigotry that the D's represent. Small Paul was useless at best and a backstabber at worst anyway.

Trump could very well be at 50% approval on election day. Because of the fact that Trump's unique trait is that lots of people who disapprove of him can nevertheless vote for him (see: 37% approval, 46% result in popular vote even when voter fraud is factored in), he doesn't even need to be at 50%. Dare I say that he could have even won against the likes of Crazy Bernie and Sleepy Joe with the 2018 electorate? After all, lots of 2018 D voters could and would still back Lil Donnie in the right circumstances. 

Uh oh guys. I think we have almost 6 more years on our hands! The question at this point may as well be "Who should succeed him to ensure America's future?" Pence? DeSantis? Cotton? Kobach? Trump Jr? Cruz? Oh well, I'll taste that delicious buffet when the time comes.

This guy sounds like a spy.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1128802279983919105
I haven't found a link to the actual poll.  Link.  Last month they were at 45/51.

More people having an opinion, then? The people who went from “don’t know because I’m smelly” went from 3% to 1%.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1129381077297106945

Him and his underlings have been up to a lot bizarre, violent, and silly behavior this last week

[Person Man]

Newest Rasmussen poll has Trump

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

How did this happen? It's Rasmussen.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

The country is sliding too far to the right.

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Well, he probably went from like 41 to 43 because of that news report that people were hiring. Then came the tariffs and the floodgates of personhood laws. Now he is probably back down to where he was.

[Person Man]

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

Quinnipiac University, 1,078 RV, MAY 16-20.

38 (-3)
57!!! (+2)


So Rasmussen did, indeed, show the trend. Who would believe that? Rasmussen!

The nation's economy is "excellent," 22 percent of American voters say in a Quinnipiac University National Poll today, the highest "excellent" rating for the economy. Another 49 percent of voters say the economy is "good." The total 71 percent for "excellent" and "good" is the highest total number for American voter attitudes on the economy in almost 18 years.

Some 52 percent of American voters say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, while 21 percent say they are worse off and 23 percent say they are the same.

But American voters give President Donald Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 41 - 55 percent approval in a May 2 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll.

American voters give Trump mixed grades for his handling of the economy as 48 percent approve and 45 percent disapprove. He gets negative grades for handling other issues:
37 - 58 percent for handling foreign policy;
39 - 53 percent for handling trade;
40 - 50 percent for handling the nation's policy toward China;
37 - 47 percent for handling the nation's policy toward Iran.
Voters say 48 - 40 percent the president's trade policies are bad for the U.S. economy, and say 44 - 36 percent that these policies are bad for their personal financial situation.

FAKE NEWS!

Also:

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely yes 31 (-2)
Consider 12 (-1)
Definitely no 54 (+2)

Although Rasmussen Reports usually gives an unduly rosy view of Trump approval, movements in it can suggest real change that others might show independently.


The "Definitely no" must obviously now include some conservatives that the President has rubbed the wrong way, and the "consider" must now be a rather Right-leaning lot. America may be more liberal than it was in 2010 through 2016 -- but not that much. "Definitely no" sounds like a sticky number only to the detriment of the President's chances.

It is not America that has abandoned conservatism; it is Donald Trump who has betrayed it. Republicans have typically owned foreign policy for almost forty years, with Democratic Presidents such as Clinton and Obama getting away with their foreign policy by sticking close to the GOP orthodoxy. Conservatives used to have patriotism as an appeal -- until Trump.

The only way in which Donald Trump can win re-election in an honest election is if the liberal side of the political spectrum should rift, which seems not to be happening with the "quarterback controversy" that the Democrats now have. 

The "definitely no" number suggests at the least a near-landslide defeat of this President. A map may be in order.

Unless it appears that Trump literally solves all of our problems in the next year or somehow wins a major war next year or really brings our economy to the next level, its either going to be a year like 1916, 2004, or 2012 or a year like 1980, 2008, or 1992.

[Person Man]

CBS News, May 17-20, 1101 adults

Approve 41
Disapprove 52

Very similar to the Monmouth results.

The change from their last poll from January:

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

It's a swing of 12!
Trumpomentum!  

You mean the January during which the government was shut down and Trump's approval rating cratered?

And every crash is "Fake News". Its really hard whether they want Trump because they think he is easier to control or whether they are both just very chauvinist.

[Person Man]

Who is that fit man, with a normal waistline suppose to be?

Putin?

Trump Suit Putin! Beets....in water!

[Person Man]

I would be spinning with jubilance for 4 years, if Biden (or any Dem) took Texas in 2020.

Imagine if Trump wins OH by 10, while losing TX by 1.

I could see that happening as early as the 2020s but If it happens it will most likely happen closer to mid century.

[Person Man]

In a wave election, the Dems don't have to outright win TX, they have to play the expectations game, and come close enough, so that statewide Dems in the close Senate races: AZ, GA, NC, and TX, deep red states, come close enough to flip the Senate back to the Dems.

With a 304-234, victory map, certain red state senate races can flip.

Democrats don't win close elections. Its going to be a bloodbath when they win whether its 2020 or 2022 or 2024 or heaven forbid 2026 and 2028.

[Person Man]

At this rate, once the economy finally gives out, the entire Republican party is a lame duck until people start complaining that the recovery is taking too long.

[Person Man]

Here is Morning Consults 50 state approval poll for May:

Source

It really doesn't change that much, does it?

[Person Man]

NBC has released the results for all but five of the states polled on Meet the Press today.  The states not identified are Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

The internal polling paints a picture of an incumbent president with serious ground to gain across the country as his re-election campaign kicks into higher gear.

While the campaign tested other Democratic presidential candidates against Trump, Biden polled the best of the group, according the source.

In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan — three states where Trump edged Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by narrow margins that proved decisive in his victory — Trump trails Biden by double-digits. In three of those states — Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida — Biden’s leads sit outside the poll’s margin of error.

Trump is also behind the former vice president in Iowa by 7 points, in North Carolina by 8 points, in Virginia by 17 points, in Ohio by 1 point, in Georgia by 6 points, in Minnesota by 14 points, and in Maine by 15 points.

In Texas, where a Democratic presidential nominee hasn’t won since President Jimmy Carter in 1976, Trump leads by just 2 points.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/trump-campaign-cutting-ties-pollsters-after-internal-numbers-leaked-n1017991

I am not incorporating these polls because they are from March. I have every reason to believe that they were conducted properly, their results showing what other pollsters have found.

A good morning line though?

[Person Man]

 https://www.270towin.com/maps/dQkDl