Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Person Man]

This is just one poll.

True -- but it is by a very good pollster. It has strange results, but reality has changed.

In any event, America is split  nearly 50-50 Left and Right with little middle. I expect Right-leaning people to rally around conservative causes that will be stalled, if not reversed.

Donald Trump is getting a second chance, and this time he clearly must give something to get something. Effective politics is wheeling and dealing, and if he wants a huge tax cut for the super-rich, he will have to offer something in return. Will he? Who knows?

Many pundits of the time wrote off Obama, Clinton, and even Reagan after their inability to hold onto House majorities... yet they got re-elected.

President Trump's legal problems remain. If he remains an arrogant SOB who can do little more than belittle his opponents, rivals, and any Republican who fails to follow his line, then he goes back to his recent pattern of 40% approval and 55% disapproval.  History suggests that a President who has lost big in the House can get re-elected.

At least no president has ever won back control over the house after losing it in his second campaign.

[Person Man]

Gallup's weekly poll continues to be very bouncy:

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 56 (-4)

So over the last 5 weeks it's been:

40/54
38/56
43/53
38/60
40/56

But the fundamentals are unchanged though I imagine all presidents get a post electoral bounce save lame ducks getting thrown under the bus.

[Person Man]

This is just one poll.

Selzer is good, but you are very right. I remember back in September when Selzer had the generic ballot at D+2 and alot of people were freaking out. But as we know, the results weren't +2 and that the average was very accurate. So what I'm trying to say is, put the poll in the average and don't worry too much about individual outliers.

They also had Hubbell leading Reynolds.

Republicans seem to have outperformed election polls after 2008. Manipulation or secret strategy? Who knows?

I guess they go to your work or to wherever you are at 1 o'clock, and just kidnap you or bribe you with pulled pork, brisket, chicken tendies, snuff, or whatever else gets out the base and then they lure or drag you to the polls by the bus load. Perfect time to run out of ballots.

[Person Man]

This is just one poll.

Yes, you should ignore pro-Trump outliers...AND anti-Trump outliers.

Or just don't bother paying attention to the polls at all. We already know from the election we just had that his approximate approval is 45-55.

It will be fun how that electorate turns out in 2020. My guess? We probably get another close, weird map and Democrats edge out a bare win against an elected president. First time since forever. There's a first time for everything. Through Trump, all things are possible.
D 51%
Trump 47%

https://www.270towin.com/

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly: 40/56.  No change from last week after several bouncy weeks.

It would be very weird if he gets about the same share of the vote again in 2020.

[Person Man]

Obama's approvals were similar if not even lower at similar points in 2010 and he had a mega-huge wipeout in the midterms. Every red avatar on this forum was shaking it off. But because it's Trump...

Double standards, double standards.

Business Cycle

[Person Man]

I remember posting on Facebook around this time 8 years ago, and have seen it in "On this day", that I felt Obama would probably lose reelection in 2012. It wasn't until the campaign got really underway in spring 2012 and I saw how much Obama still controlled the conversation and how feckless the Republican campaigners were that I started to get hope again. And of course every Democrat had a heart attack after that one debate where Obama looked like a zombie and Romney caught up with him in the polls.

Ah yes, the "Big Bird debate", where Mitt just wanted to talk about his favorite show 'Sesame Street' the whole time.

I thought Obama was going to win after he caught bin Laden and the economy started to pick up a little.

[Person Man]

I remember posting on Facebook around this time 8 years ago, and have seen it in "On this day", that I felt Obama would probably lose reelection in 2012. It wasn't until the campaign got really underway in spring 2012 and I saw how much Obama still controlled the conversation and how feckless the Republican campaigners were that I started to get hope again. And of course every Democrat had a heart attack after that one debate where Obama looked like a zombie and Romney caught up with him in the polls.

Ah yes, the "Big Bird debate", where Mitt just wanted to talk about his favorite show 'Sesame Street' the whole time.

I thought Obama was going to win after he caught bin Laden and the economy started to pick up a little.

After he got Bin Laden I figured it was over. If all else failed, he could’ve just ran on that eked out a victory.

I'm not sure if that alone did in the GOP in 2012, but the economy started to steadily improve in the late 2011. There were people with money who didn't like Obama and they knew that continuing to "go Galt" worked for them in 2010, but by 2012, people would catch on. Consequently, they started hiring folks again and the economy improved. This is what Obama and Clinton had going for them a weak economy that was turning a corner, but not too soon to save their Congressional majorities. Trump has a very strong economy where the only way it doesn't come back to bite him in the ass is if we have somehow managed to engineer an era of perpetual prosperity.

[Person Man]

I wonder if the trend of Trump's approval basically staying in the same 2 point range will hold for the next couple years

Add 6 to 42% and you get 48% of the 2PV. That's a loss between 3 and 5%. He basically has to get really lucky again AND the economy has to stay strong. If it isn't, I think he gets like 45% of the the 2PV.

[Person Man]

I wonder if the trend of Trump's approval basically staying in the same 2 point range will hold for the next couple years

Add 6 to 42% and you get 48% of the 2PV. That's a loss between 3 and 5%. He basically has to get really lucky again AND the economy has to stay strong. If it isn't, I think he gets like 45% of the the 2PV.

is "approval plus 6" an actual thing we can rely on?

Worked in 2016. Trump was at 39, Clinton was at 43. Undecideds broke 3:2 for the challenger.

[Person Man]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

So it's almost 3 to 1 now?

[Person Man]

Washington Post Fact Checker Poll conducted by NORC, Nov. 29-Dec. 10, 1025 adults (comparison is to the last NORC survey I can find, for AP in Oct.)

Approve 43 (+3)
Disapprove 56 (-3)

Strongly approve 16 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-1)

This poll asks a number of "fact check" questions about various false claims made by both sides.  The individual questions are interesting, and the overall results are:

Average response across 11 false claims by Trump:

Overall: 41% selected the True response, 25% selected False response, 34% unsure
D: 47 T, 20 F, 32 unsure
R: 34 T, 35 F, 30 unsure
I: 41 T, 23 T, 34 unsure

Average response across 4 false claims by Democrats:

Overall: 33 T, 31 F, 35 unsure
D: 26 T, 39 F, 34 unsure
R: 45 T, 22 F, 33 unsure
I: 33 T, 29 F, 37 unsure

So it's almost 3 to 1 now?

Strongly?  It appears so, although I have a small bit of doubt that they might have swapped the strongly approve and somewhat approve numbers.  16 for strongly approve is the lowest I've seen so far.

People will only vote for this guy if nothing happens.

[Person Man]

Iowa Republicans only, CNN/Selzer, Dec. 10-13, 450 registered Republicans

Approve 81
Disapprove 14

If Trump is the nominee in 2020...

Definitely vote to re-elect 67
Consider someone else 19
Definitely vote for someone else 10

Everything has to go his way for him to be reelected if this is indicative. If 2016 didn't happen, I would say this is a cooked goose.

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

lol

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac, Dec. 12-17, 1147 RV (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

Strongly approve 31 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

So as we enter the lame duck session and the eye of the storm, the only change since ED'18 has been that fewer people actually care?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1075749318802464768

At this rate, he loses by 4-6.

[Person Man]

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

The key is Trump, like all politicians, but to a greater degree in his case, can convince a number of Voters who disapprove of him to still hold their nose and pull the lever for him in the voting booth. Republicans tend to be better at this than Democrats in demonizing their opponent. Hillary Clinton was a perfect example.

In short, while I think Trump is on borrowed time, don't underestimate the number of people who will still potentially choose him as the lesser of two evils.

In 2016, Trump did, at the end of the day, dominate among voters who disapproved of both candidates.

Per CNN's exit poll:

both unfavorable 18%


Clinton 30%   
Trump 47%   
Other 23%

(Nearly the entirety of Other came from the both unfavorable camp)

The question is how many of those "Disapprove of both, vote Trump" voters are because Trump was the change option in 2016: the GOP were out of the White House and he represented a shift. He's now an incumbent president.

Excellent analysis. I wondered the same thing, but didn't bother to extend my post. I do think that that is a difference, Mikado. For some of the reasons P Brower mentions about people willing to aim for a change. I think break towards Trump's favor the same way it did for years ago. Nevertheless, don't discount the ability for Republican party operatives and frightening media's spearheaded, but not exclusive to, Fox News to utterly demonize the Democratic presidential candidate. Likewise, don't underestimate the ability for conservatively glowing post swing voters to still accept Trump as somehow being the lesser of two evils.

So 2020 could really simply be won by who actually controls the "Luegenpresse"?

[Person Man]

It is as if he is being whittled back down to the 35-40% of the electorate who represents his alt-right base.

[Person Man]

I wonder if he's bouncing back a bit because Democrats have some power now and some small slice of Republicans who dislike him now decide he's better than Sanders, Warren, or AOC who are now in the news.

It would make sense if rumors of major problems and trouble ahead simply remain either rumors or tied up in court. The only other major story is the various allegations of corruption and incompetence being thrown by the media at both Trump and now at the Resistance. This was such the case in the spring of 2011 when both Obama and the TEA Party were seem as equally culpable actors in the world.

The main difference is that Trump has gone from controversial to somewhat to only slightly unpopular while Obama has gone from very popular to controversial to slightly unpopular back to being controversial. The backdrop being the unemployment rate starting and staying low from Obama to Trump and the unemployment rate starting, going higher and gradually decreasing from Bush to Obama.  

At this rate, Trump will probably win exactly 50% of the popular vote but lose Michigan but win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and MAYBE Nevada. This is if there's no big short in the next 20 months.  
I think Gardner loses but also that Jones and Sheheen loses....I think the Republicans gain like 12 seats in the house. This is because there's always someone out there willing to give loans to people and someone no one out there calling them in. Maybe they finally pulled off how to make sustainable high yield investments.

If not, I can easily see an Democrat winning everything that was close last time, retaking the Senate and winning at least few more seats in the House. Especially if I am out on my ass for a prolonged period of time. Not to toot my own horn...

[Person Man]

Whenever there was a major indictment it didn't really move his numbers all that much, Russia was barely even an issue in the midterms. The investigation was always more of a inside the beltway thing that cable news hyped up, I think his JA is pretty much baked in at -10 or so atp.

Here are the pre-report baselines we can use for future comparisons:

538: Approve 42.1, Disapprove 52.9, Net -10.8

RCP: Approve 43.6, Disapprove 52.7, Net -9.1

One week later...

538: 42.0 (-0.1), 52.9 (nc), -10.9 (-0.1)

RCP: 43.6 (nc), 51.9 (-0.,  -8.3 (+0.

tRumP jUSt WoN rEeLecTiOn!1

If he does and the GOP does only OK downballot (gains seats, but the fundamentals don't really change) and then goes on to get slaughtered in 2022, it would appear that the GOP has to nothing offer besides Trump. That is how all parties are by the second term.

[Person Man]

PPP, March 27-28, 846 RV (prior poll March 13-14)

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

GCB: D 51, R 40

2020:

Biden 53, Trump 40
Buttigieg 45, Trump 41
Booker 48, Trump 41
Gillibrand 47, Trump 41
Harris 48, Trump 41
O'Rourke 47, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 41
Warren 48, Trump 42

If Mueller had any effect it’s that some who disapprove have stopped caring or are truly open about Trump but don’t trust him. Given how many still disapprove, I can see about 70% of them voting for him because “I don’t really like Trump but I’m not voting Democratic until they put someone up there that’s more reasonable.”. The other 30% will split between not voting and pulling a FuzzyBear. They will say, “I am pretty conservative, but I like this Democrat and Trump is kind of shady. I’ll give someone new a chance.”

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brooklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

This could be a poll that is that is evidence that Donald Trump’s votes may be less efficiently  allocated then they were in 2016 or it could just have been a bad poll.

[Person Man]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

That's probably the most generic situation. 46% of people who show up will vote any Republican over any Democrat and vice versa. 2008 might have been the very peak of what anyone could do.

[Person Man]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.