Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?

The relevant ones were North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Iowa, The only states that he barely won and eventually lost in 2012 were Indiana (which he lost badly) and North Carolina.

Of course, Obama had more room for losing states than does Trump. That's the difference between  304 and 365 electoral votes.

Look at Trump's approval ratings in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The fitting word is "execrable". 

[forgotten manatee]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?

The relevant ones were North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Iowa, The only states that he barely won and eventually lost in 2012 were Indiana (which he lost badly) and North Carolina.

Of course, Obama had more room for losing states than does Trump. That's the difference between  304 and 365 electoral votes.

Look at Trump's approval ratings in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The fitting word is "execrable". 

Based on a chart I found on HuffPo, Obama's approval rating in Ohio in January 2011 averaged 43.7%, with disapproval just north of 50%. Of course, he ended up winning the state by over 50%. So I'm very cautious on assuming Trump is DOA in any swing state just because he is polling in the low 40s there. Obviously Trump is stronger in Ohio than Obama was as his approvals have held up better, but I'd also bet that Trump's base of support is stronger in Arizona than recent polls suggest. I'm pessimistic that the state is going to flip in 2 years.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, Jan. 10-11, 848 adults (1-month change)

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+5)

[pbrower2a]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?

The relevant ones were North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Iowa, The only states that he barely won and eventually lost in 2012 were Indiana (which he lost badly) and North Carolina.

Of course, Obama had more room for losing states than does Trump. That's the difference between  304 and 365 electoral votes.

Look at Trump's approval ratings in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The fitting word is "execrable". 

Based on a chart I found on HuffPo, Obama's approval rating in Ohio in January 2011 averaged 43.7%, with disapproval just north of 50%. Of course, he ended up winning the state by over 50%. So I'm very cautious on assuming Trump is DOA in any swing state just because he is polling in the low 40s there. Obviously Trump is stronger in Ohio than Obama was as his approvals have held up better, but I'd also bet that Trump's base of support is stronger in Arizona than recent polls suggest. I'm pessimistic that the state is going to flip in 2 years.

Donald Trump won the following states by 10% or less (he also won NE-02 by a tiny margin in 2016 but won ME-02 by a bit over 10% in 2016):

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Florida
Arizona
North Carolina
Georgia
Ohio
Iowa
Texas

He lost these states by less than 10%

New Mexico
Virginia
Colorado
Nevada
Maine at-large
Minnesota
New Hampshire

He has shown no sign of gaining ground in the states that he lost by single digits.

He gets 304 electoral votes if he wins with the same electoral map, ignoring faithless electors, as in 2016.

His Party lost the majority of the vote for House elections in all states which he lost in 2016. Because American political values are as polarized as they are in partisan voting, this suggests that he will not win those states. America is no longer in Tea Party mode in enough states. Such is also true in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Iowa, in all of which Trump approval is awful. We will have no idea of how things are in North Carolina until the state has a clean special election to decide NC-09, which had a farce of a House election.

With that alone, Trump stands to lose to a Democrat who wins either 295 or 310 electoral votes., the difference being North Carolina. Then there are the unflattering polls for the President in Georgia, Ohio, and Texas.

I have typically used 100-DIS as the ceiling for the percentage of vote for an 'average' incumbent in a following re-election bid. Perhaps an unusually-competent pol, like Obama, can beat that... but that is rare. Trump approvals are horrid in several states, and such will not allow him to win by making some well-timed and well-situated campaign stops in all of those states. Trump needs miracles or a change in the political norms to win.

Trump is not Obama. Obama at the least had a reputation for probity that Trump completely lacks. Obama is able to use language in a way to which more people can relate. Trump has legal problems that most people now seem most suitably solved with someone else as President.

Obama had a higher level of support from which to decline -- and still win. He lost Indiana (severely), NE-02 (decisively), and North Carolina (barely) in 2012, but still ended up with 332 electoral votes. He barely won Florida, which he could have still lost while winning the Electoral College (at which he would have had 303 electoral votes, and back in 2012 I had a convoluted explanation of why he would lose Florida). He could have lost Ohio as well, putting him at 285 electoral votes (close to Dubya in 2004 as an electoral result).

He could not then lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, or such combinations as Wisconsin and Iowa (the two states usually vote together); Colorado and Virginia together; Virginia and either Iowa or New Hampshire; Colorado, Iowa or Nevada, and either ME-02 or New Hampshire; Virginia and Maine at-large (which would assume that ME-02 would go for Romney) -- before I go into discussing such unlikelihood as Minnesota and anything else (if Obama had lost Minnesota, he would have probably lost both Iowa and Wisconsin as well, at the least).

Obama could afford to lose four states from 2008 with ten or more electoral votes and still win in 2012, and one of those was electorally-giant Florida (which he somehow won). Among the states that he won by 10% or less, he loses if he loses Texas (304-38 = 266), which may not be likely -- or relevant. If Texas slips away from him, then his opponent is getting 400 or more electoral votes.

Florida? 304-29 = 275, but that leaves him no room to lose any state that he won by less than 10% -- even if that state is Iowa, which puts him at 269 and sends the decision for President to the House of Representatives -- a dicey proposition for the President. If he loses NE-02 (more likely) or ME-02, he loses.

A loss of Pennsylvania puts Trump at 284, which means that he absolutely must win Michigan (without which, 268) and get a split of Wisconsin and Iowa, two states that usually vote together (also 268 should he lose both). Pennsylvania and North Carolina also put Trump at 269, in which case the election goes to either ME-02 or NE-02 -- or the House.

It is hard to say what state Trump also loses just because he loses Arizona. Its eleven electoral votes are one more than those of Wisconsin, so you can do the math on Arizona. Losing Pennsylvania and Arizona puts Trump at 273; Michigan and Arizona or Wisconsin, Iowa, and Arizona puts him at 277; Arizona and North Carolina put Trump at 278 before any further damage is possible.

Only 36% of Colorado voters apparently want to re-elect Trump. Last summer, a question of some voters in six other states (AZ, FL, MI, MN, OH, and WI)  said that anywhere from 28% to 37% of all voters wanted to re-elect Trump. A poll last week of North Carolina showed that Trump does not break 46% of the vote against any named Democrat. In theory that can all change -- but if it doesn't. then he will be in the position of a fire chief who faces eight fires with seven fire crews and engine.

Trump has already done (Fidel) Castro-style rallies in states that he sees as critical or desirable for winning re-election. It isn't working; we still have some semblance of a free press here.

Trump is not going to lose Georgia without also losing North Carolina and Florida. He is also not going to lose Ohio without losing both Michigan and Pennsylvania.       
   

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey, Jan. 9-10, 2629 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

I believe this is the worst showing for Trump by SurveyMonkey since sometime last Spring.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

[Badger]

Just a little bit of attention whoring here. My wife just now received a call and was pulled by Gallup. It had an approval rating for Trump, plus questions on how various groups in America are being treated, such as gays and lesbians, African Americans, immigrants, Muslims and Christians. She answered very dissatisfied regarding Trump because, she told me, sh**ty was not an option. . God I love her.

She also said very poorly regarding how all these various subsets of people are being treated in America, except somewhat poorly for Christians. Her thinking there is that because Christians, including Progressive Christians like us are often given a bad rap because were lumped in with religious right types.

I'm so proud of her having her own opinions and everything! And yes, I said that just to get that awesome steely-eyed glare of death from her right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just a little bit of attention whoring here. My wife just now received a call and was pulled by Gallup. It had an approval rating for Trump, plus questions on how various groups in America are being treated, such as gays and lesbians, African Americans, immigrants, Muslims and Christians. She answered very dissatisfied regarding Trump because, she told me, sh**ty was not an option. . God I love her.

She also said very poorly regarding how all these various subsets of people are being treated in America, except somewhat poorly for Christians. Her thinking there is that because Christians, including Progressive Christians like us are often given a bad rap because were lumped in with religious right types.

I'm so proud of her having her own opinions and everything! And yes, I said that just to get that awesome steely-eyed glare of death from her right now.

Assuming that's Gallup's new monthly survey, she can look for it on Tuesday.

[HisGrace]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

Isn't it the case that the longer a shutdown goes on the more people generally start to blame the President? So if this was going to help him it would have been through an initial bump which did not happen.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

I do not predict trends. The most that I can try to do is to compare one Presidency to another. Yes, Trump is awful. Bad luck? I'd say that he has had good fortune that the economy has not tanked on him.

Several people that I recognize as reliable analysts tell me that Trump  approval has been amazingly... stable. The good thing for him is that he is not on  the brink of a collapse in ratings. The bad news is that there is little that anyone can imagine that would cause his approval numbers to rise.

 

[Arnaud]

How many times Trump has been above water since elected? 2 or 3 times, right? i think a lot of people don't realise how awful this is.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

Those are the worst fivethirtyeight numbers for Trump since september and if they get just a teeny bit worse, it will be his worst numbers since last february.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How many times Trump has been above water since elected? 2 or 3 times, right? i think a lot of people don't realise how awful this is.

In 538's average, he was briefly above water right after the inauguration, but by early February 2017 he was under water and has been there ever since.  Rasmussen's daily tracker occasionally pokes above water, but it's extremely Trump-friendly compared to most other polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One that bucks the trend:

IBD/TIPP, Jan. 1-12, 903 adults (prior poll Nov. 26-Dec. 2)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump continues to slide in Rasmussen's daily tracker.  Today he's at 43/55, his worst in almost a year (43/56 on 1/30/18).  He's also been at 46% strong disapproval for the past three days, which is again the highest since last January.

[pbrower2a]

Trump continues to slide in Rasmussen's daily tracker.  Today he's at 43/55, his worst in almost a year (43/56 on 1/30/18).  He's also been at 46% strong disapproval for the past three days, which is again the highest since last January.

If Rasmussen has a disapproval rating of 55%, then such is really bad. 100-DIS suggests that he would get no more than 45% of the popular vote in 2020 unless things start going better for him. This is with the pollster most consistently sympathetic to him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Civis Analytics, Jan. 9-10, 1220 likely 2020 voters (prior poll Dec. 4-9)

Note: the link gives me a mostly blank page in Chrome, but works in Internet Explorer.

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

538 does not have a rating for Civis, but they adjusted the new poll to 41/56, indicating they have a slight R bias.

[Person Man]

It is as if he is being whittled back down to the 35-40% of the electorate who represents his alt-right base.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, Jan. 10-11, 782 RV (1-week change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Independents only:

Approve 36 (-10)
Disapprove 58 (+9)

I'm a bit skeptical that such a big movement among I's only moved the topline by a net 2.  But the poll releases don't show us how many were sampled in each party.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Jan. 2-10, 1017 adults (prior poll Dec. 17-22)

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+4) (presumably including Badger's wife)

[GeorgiaModerate]

More on Gallup:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1085184191472508928

[Sir Mohamed]

Gallup, Jan. 2-10, 1017 adults (prior poll Dec. 17-22)

Approve 37 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+4) (presumably including Badger's wife)

Looks like the #TrumpShutdown starts having an effect.

[Crumpets]

Trump has just moved back into "lowest approval of any president at this point of their presidency since polling began" territory, inching just below... Ronald Reagan.

That being said, Reagan had much lower disapprovals. Trump's net approval rating has consistantly been the worst of any president this early in their term.

[Sir Mohamed]

Trump has just moved back into "lowest approval of any president at this point of their presidency since polling began" territory, inching just below... Ronald Reagan.

That being days, Reagan had much lower disapprovals. Trump's net approval rating has consistantly been the worst of any president this early in their term.

Even though Reagan was unpopular in 1982/83, this is hardly comparable with today. Reagan had a much higher ceiling while Trump can't even get to 50%. He never has been near that mark and he did next to nothing to do so and expand his base. Reagan was unpopular due to a recession that ended before his reelection campaign begun. Trump is unpopular despite a booming economy (what probably keeps him from dropping even lower).

[Cashew]

Let me guess it's still hovering around 40%.

I just checked and yep I was right, it's beyond pathetic that this country won't let him stay below that for long.