Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac Poll of Florida is coming out later today.

The GOLD standard.

But seriously, I'm glad that they we have another pollster polling this state other than the same pollsters.

Numbers are out: 42-54

Ouch

That pretty much confirms that things are more or less settling in to a pattern.

[Person Man]

I wonder what George W Bush's approval rating in Florida was in mid-late 2006

Rasmussen had Bush at 41% Approve 59% Disapprove in Florida from
August to September 2006 when I'm sure Rasmussen wasn't as much of a joke as it is today. Here's the link:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/bush_administration/president_bush_approval_state_by_state

The GOP handled Florida very well in 2006 by nominating a moderate.

[Person Man]

Zogby; last poll was January 12-15

Approve: 48 (+2)
Disapprove: 49 (-2)

Trump improving in vast array of polls, with his 538 average jumping three points.

As millions of Americans trade in their Hyundais for Altimas, their Motel 6's for Holiday Inns, their 2 bedroom flats for 2000 square foot ranch homes, their hamburgers and ramen for steak and salad bars, their coach seats for business seats, their Miller Lite for Moet, their bowling balls for golf clubs, and their union dues for country club dues!

[Person Man]

What I find truly amazing is that Trump is able to average out >40% approval in any aggregator. Think of everything he has done, his obscene and untrustworthy character, the ongoing investigation(s) into him/his campaign. It's really something. This guy is a joke, but so many people don't care and even enjoy it, as if having a moron in office is refreshing.

This * 100

This is how natural selection works.

[Person Man]

Being told that this is going to be a very very good poll for Trump --->

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/971038248326828033

Is that "what people say"?

[Person Man]

Gallup 3/25

Approve - 39 (-1)
Disapprove - 55 (-1)

Been extremely steady for the past month.

Appears reasonable. Trump's been Trump. Why would he all the sudden begin to be on his way of being moderately popular?

[Person Man]

Is it actually true that trump has a higher approval rating that may, macron, and trudeau? Some pundit today said it in passing and I find it hard to believe.

I don’t, honestly. Democracies across the West are going through a weird funk with their elected leadership. I’ll qualify that by saying that if Trump just kept his mouth shut and his Twitter account turned off he’d probably be in the low 50s, and that all four mentioned leaders have popularity issues for reasons unique to them and the political cultures of their respective countries.

I disagree. I think he'd be even lower.

What everyone seems to miss with Trump is his superficial flaws as a terrible human being conceal his gross fundamental flaws as Chief Executive.

If he wasn't constantly stirring up outrage for being a stupid, psychotic jackwagon of a President, that would instead free up mindshare so that people could grasp that he's a stooge of the one-percent and grossly incompetent (and a criminal, too).

If Trump wasn't a raging retard, he would just be seen as the second coming of Dubya ironically.

[Person Man]

Finally his numbers are coming back to where they should be. I think he got a bounce from promising to meet with the North Koreans. I think that bounce is over but might come back and make Trump moderately popular in Kim actually capitulates. OTOH, we go back to the status quo, or things get nudged further in the opposite direction. He can't go below freezing even if we are in the middle of Hell in NK because his black pill base are willing to die there for him.

[Person Man]

New York City -  Quinnipiac:

19% Approve
76% Disapprove

Bronx: 16-82
Brooklyn: 24-70
Manhattan: 12-87
Queens: 18-75
Staten Island: 34-62!!!

Source

Holy moly

Didn't Trump win there?

[Person Man]

If NC remains 5 points more Trump friendly than the national numbers, that probably confirms that his numbers are very stable.

[Person Man]

Trump approval at 30% in PA.

Link: https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/708725106986767486-f-m-poll-release-march-2018.pdf

Subfreezing in a place he won?

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly: 39/55, exactly the same as last week, and continuing to stay within a very narrow range for the past several weeks.

Remarkably consistent.

Basically the Alt-Right, Alt-Light and Teabaggers approve, but very few others.

[Person Man]

They could probably go much higher is he’s able to make a nuke deal with Kim or take out the Syrian Giraffe

Maybe something with Kim. I think he is just talking trash about Syria. Basically how Obama was cucked but with less grace

[Person Man]

There will be no bump. Trump is at his ceiling, and the majority of Americans probably opposed these stupid strikes.

Wait...so do you approve of Assad gassing his own people? I'm confused.

What I am opposed to are bandaids covering bear trap wounds.

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 19-25, 9688 adults including 8455 RV

Among adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Wow, those are some Rasmussen numbers at RV. Suggest that Rasmussen might not be such a big outlier after all.

Damn it Limo.

FWIW, SurveyMonkey has an even lower 538 rating than Rasmussen (C- vs C+).

Wait actually? Never mind, I don't think they're credible. I'm just surprised that Axios and NBC contracts them out so heavily.

The RV sample is actually R+4 and R+2 among all adults, when was the last time Rs had a party ID advantage over Ds in polls, I don't even think that was the case in 2010/14.

If this is more like 2006 or even 1998, we will probably see a D+5-7 electorate.

[Person Man]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, April 19-25, 9688 adults including 8455 RV

Among adults:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

Wow, those are some Rasmussen numbers at RV. Suggest that Rasmussen might not be such a big outlier after all.

Damn it Limo.

FWIW, SurveyMonkey has an even lower 538 rating than Rasmussen (C- vs C+).

Wait actually? Never mind, I don't think they're credible. I'm just surprised that Axios and NBC contracts them out so heavily.

The RV sample is actually R+4 and R+2 among all adults, when was the last time Rs had a party ID advantage over Ds in polls, I don't even think that was the case in 2010/14.

So basically just tag on an extra 10 points to the D-R margin if that's the case.

I know Limo is routinely off in his predictions by double digits, but you'd think at some point he'd get the hint he kinda sucks at it.

I think the flipping of Congress might get him singing a different tune. But if 2018 is a wash...

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Trump's best result in this survey in a very long time.

Wow. North Korea news really boosting him.

Maybe people are just making more money?

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Trump's best result in this survey in a very long time.

Wow. North Korea news really boosting him.

Rofalmo....the average American can't even find Korea on a map let alone let it influence their voting behavior

The fact is that people has gotten used to Trumps clownfonery and just aren't as offended by it anymore. I know because I don't even care what he says or does anymore. Besides that, the economy is doing good and nothing major is going on now.

It also doesn't help that nothing the useless MSM predicts about Trump ever actually happens. They've cried wolf so many times with articles about how Trump's tarrifs would ruin the economy etc... Naturally, people just check out since none of the headlines threats ever come to fruition

I can see Trump pulling a Bush where he is just popular enough to stay in full control until the wheels start to fall off the bus.

[Person Man]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 42 (+4)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

Trump's best result in this survey in a very long time.

Wow. North Korea news really boosting him.

Rofalmo....the average American can't even find Korea on a map let alone let it influence their voting behavior

The fact is that people has gotten used to Trumps clownfonery and just aren't as offended by it anymore. I know because I don't even care what he says or does anymore. Besides that, the economy is doing good and nothing major is going on now.

It also doesn't help that nothing the useless MSM predicts about Trump ever actually happens. They've cried wolf so many times with articles about how Trump's tarrifs would ruin the economy etc... Naturally, people just check out since none of the headlines threats ever come to fruition

I can see Trump pulling a Bush where he is just popular enough to stay in full control until the wheels start to fall off the bus.

And if that happens after dems win the House in November,  too many will belive his 'blame the obstructionist Dems' BS.

Or just if they dont.

[Person Man]

If trump is truly at 43.5-44% approval nationally, what would a national map look like?

prob would be a democrat win but close-ish. like 2016 EC numbers but reversed. MI+WI+PA+(possibly)AZ+FL

I think this would be my prediction too, Marty.

And maybe if it was in the high 30s, maybe NC and GA would flip, too... or maybe Ohio and Iowa if the tariffs are really that bad. In the ultimate worst case scenario, he loses Texas, too. If he gets and stays polarizing rather than unpopular, he probably switches out Michigan and/or Pennsylvania or New Hampshire and Minnesota. It would be like 2004.  Maybe his best case scenario is 2016 + MN + NV + NH. That would be like a reverse 2012.

[Person Man]

It seems Trump has finally broken out of the 40% +/- 3% range and may be heading for a new equilibrium at around 42% among all adults and around 44% with registered voters, I wonder what has changed in the last week or so to prompt this shift up, North Korea looks to be the most likely explanation, in any case, if Trump's approval ratings are at 45% or higher going into November, the GOP stands a good chance of retaining both chamber's of Congress. Such an outcome would likely cause a deep crisis within Democratic ranks and perhaps also the final collapse of the Never Trump brigade.

Why dont we wait before we start making claims about a "new equilibrium".

I definitely think unless the Democrats take back at least one house, it will at least be a somewhat substantial challenge finding a path forward for them.

[Person Man]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

Ok, but tell me how you really feel.

I have nothing to say in response. I feel nothing but complete abhorrence for Trump, his cabal in the White House, and all his enablers. But if he's going to essentially settle in for a mediocre 45% approval rating and continued Congressional majorities, I'll probably give up on following or being interested in politics. For me, its not the bad faith, corruption, and slow erosion of our norms, values, and institutions that has me so upset -- it is the absolute lack of accountability and consequences. I think in the long run, we're all going to pay dearly for the slow-motion undermining of the rule of law, the gutting of diplomacy, and the warping of the American dream.

I can see three major changes in society by 2030ish starting around now caused by this :

- Federal, State, and local law enforcement will just seem like other businesses or groups(like the Boy Scouts) to a large part of society.
- There may not be anymore reasonably contested elections at the federal level.
- Progressives will wall themselves from the rest of society and have their own insular institutions like Evangelical Fundamentalists did between 1932 and 1980.
-

[Person Man]

This thread is peak Atlas seriously.

We live in a peak Atlas timeline.

[Person Man]

Whatever it is, his approval rating is certainly too damn high. This is such an incompetent, corrupt, and chaotically run administration that has done almost nothing to deserve an approval rating anywhere above 8%. Seriously, what is the Republican Congress and "Republican" president working on these days, besides attempting to intimidate/subvert Mueller and lie their way out of a porn star payoff? This has to be one of the most unproductive administrations and Congresses in history, a damnation given that they control every branch of government. Trump is a disgusting racist fartbag who is lucky to have inherited a good economy. That is literally the only thing he has going for him. Should the economy go south, his approval ratings will likely fall to the well-deserved single digits.

Ok, but tell me how you really feel.

I have nothing to say in response. I feel nothing but complete abhorrence for Trump, his cabal in the White House, and all his enablers. But if he's going to essentially settle in for a mediocre 45% approval rating and continued Congressional majorities, I'll probably give up on following or being interested in politics. For me, its not the bad faith, corruption, and slow erosion of our norms, values, and institutions that has me so upset -- it is the absolute lack of accountability and consequences. I think in the long run, we're all going to pay dearly for the slow-motion undermining of the rule of law, the gutting of diplomacy, and the warping of the American dream.

51% of this country voted for Bush even after no WMDS. 59% of this country voted for Reagan after he plunged the country into a recession and destroyed the middle class. If anything, Trump being below 50% at all gives hope things are changing for the better.

Do you have that with an iguana? I like iguanas.

[Person Man]

It seems Trump has finally broken out of the 40% +/- 3% range and may be heading for a new equilibrium at around 42% among all adults and around 44% with registered voters, I wonder what has changed in the last week or so to prompt this shift up, North Korea looks to be the most likely explanation, in any case, if Trump's approval ratings are at 45% or higher going into November, the GOP stands a good chance of retaining both chamber's of Congress. Such an outcome would likely cause a deep crisis within Democratic ranks and perhaps also the final collapse of the Never Trump brigade.

Exactly, it's really troubling to see the tremendous unskewing and lack of panic among the Dems. This is their future on the line. If they don't win 2018 (and it's increasingly looking like it will be the case...special elections with low turnout mean nothing), gerrymandering will be in the hands of the GOP...and Dems will be the future Whigs. You can quote me on that when it happens.

It's pretty much 2006 all over again. If Dems lose, they pretty much prove that the median voter is basically a Republican. Does this mean Republican oligharchy or that a new party will form from the left or center?