Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[Person Man]

Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.

LOL, just stop this embarrassing. Chuck Todd lied.

It's more like from 36% (in 2012) to 39% (in CNN LV poll).

I'm sorry if this was documented further up the thread—can you point out to me where Chuck Todd's math was debunked? Thanks.

Note that the trend for % of non-college-educated whites is that it continually decreases as a share of the population as both education levels and diversity rises. Trump would need to get a relative surge in this population's votes just to hold steady at 2012 levels, much less reverse.  

Sorry, Chuck Todd was right. I got a misstake somewhere in my calculation

I got the following (for LV):

Whites = 73.0%
Non-college-educated Whites = 44.8%

My equation looks like this:
tot = total % a candidate have
White/nonWhite = % among Whites/non-Whites
x = % of Whites

tot = white * x + nonWhite * (1 - x)
tot - nonWhite = (white - nonWhite) * x
x = (tot - nonWhite) / (white - nonWhite)

And by the same method:
whiteTot = total % a candidate have among all whites
colWhite/nonColWhite = % among college Whites/non-college Whites
x = % of Whites
nonColWhite = % of non-college-educated Whites

nonColWhite = (whiteTot - colWhite) / (nonColWhite - colWhite) * x

Who knows? Maybe minorities won't turn out because Hillary isn't liberal enough or Trump will engage millions of poor whites for his protectionist policies on trade, immigration, and civil rights.