ARG in West Virginia!

[MarkDel]

Kerry 46%
Bush 46%
Nader 2%

Miami,

That's about what I expected. This state will be VERY close this fall...could go either way.

[MarkDel]

I think Kerry will win it by 2-6%.

Maybe, but I think it could just as easily go 2-6% the other way like it did in 2000. If any candidate carries West Virginia by double digits, you'll be looking at a national landslide.

[MarkDel]

Miami,

It helps the Dems that Kerry is a quasi-War Hero because that will appeal to those coal miners you're talking about. But overall, the Dems have slipped here as they moved away from a "labor first" message to an "environment first, labor second" message. The party did best in West Virginia when they were the blue collar guys out to help the little people, but to people in West Virginia, they will have a hard time relating to the idea that they have to pay higher gas prices, for example, so that environmentalists can protect the 1/10th of 1% of the Alaskan Wildlife Preserve.

[MarkDel]

Al... is proably right... if Kerry and Bush are evenly divided in WV at this stage Kerry may have the upper hand... steel workers in the north or the state and the population in the south are the keys to his victory... In fact WV could be a bellweather for this election... who ever wins WV might well win the election, as the national trend might well be in line with the result in WV... but its eight mounths yet...
     

Maybe, but I think the Democrats have a natural advantage in West Virginia that gives them the edge here every year.

[MarkDel]

I think this is surprisingly good for Kerry...I still think that he'll lose WV in the end...just like he'll lose OH and PA...and the election...

Gustaf,

I agree with you on Ohio, and I actually do rate Pennsylvania as an ever so slight edge to Bush...take a look at my map...I'd show if I could figure out how to post it. You young guys have a huge edge over us old guys who didn't grow up using computers...LOL