Predict Trump's RCP avg on day of FOX debate

[Likely Voter]

The day Donald Trump announced a month ago his RCP avg was 3.6%. It is currently 15.0%. He lead the last two polls (at 17 and 18% respectively).  By the time of the next debate it is likely the RCP avg will be based on all post-McCain comment polls.  So will it have a big impact?  A couple of other factors in the next couple of weeks are the entry of Kasich along with some local and national advertising spends from some of the candidate Super Pacs.

[Likely Voter]

There is going to be a rush of polling in the next couple of weeks in the run up to the Fox debate so I doubt any of the current polls will be in the RCP average. I know Monmouth has already announced they are doing another one and they just released one last week. Fox is certain to do one right before their own debate. ABC, NBC, Quinni and PPP and Marist are all due for new polls as well. CNN might do one too.

[Likely Voter]

Well most of us were wrong. This thread was made the day of the McCain captured comment by Trump. At the time he was a 15%. I thought he would drop down to 11% or so. However his RCP average is actually 24.3%.

Trump's current standing is the highest anyone has had during the entire cycle. Christie peaked at 20% back in 2013 right after he was reelected (and right before bridgegate). After that Huckabee actually peaked as frontrunner at 16% in early 2014 and Paul even had a moment in front at 13.8% last summer.  Walker peaked at 17.3% after his big CPAC speech in March. Bush peaked at 17.8 after he officially announced earlier this summer.

That being said, Perry was averaging above 30% before his first debate back in August 2011, so you never know.