Romney last led an Ohio poll 14 polls ago

[Likely Voter]

Romney has had some 1 point lead or tied polls in the last month, but they were from  Gravis, Rasmussen, ARG, Suffolk and We Ask America. All other polls (notably the more expensive major media live phone+mobile polls) have shown Obama with a small but steady lead. He is down from his September highs, but the bleeding seems to have stopped for now.

That being said, OH is still Romney's best path through the Obama firewall. But if early voting continues to trend heavily for Obama Romney may need to focus more on WI or even possibly PA, a state that has no early voting and might be moved if Romney made a massive buy there with visits in the last week but that would be a huge gamble.

[Likely Voter]

WI or PA can become better bets for Romney over OH if Romney gets a late national surge, but that surge is not enough to eclipse the heavily Obama friendly early voting that he already banked. It could be that Romney is up 2 points nationally and has NC, FL, VA, CO, IA and NH in hand on election day but Latino's have swing NV to Obama and his early vote in OH still gives him en edge. In that case WI (which just started early voting) or PA (which has no early voting) could be better targets than trying to have a massive election day win in OH.