(pre-Ryan)Wapo/Kaiser: Obama +7

[Likely Voter]

Saturday WaPo released very detailed poll with Kaiser looking at subgroups within Dems and Republicans. Lots of interesting data on various issues, but it was conducted July 25-Aug. 5 with  3,130 adults

Top line horse race results:
RV
Obama: 50
Romney: 43

All adults
Obama: 52
Romney: 40

Article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/big-gulf-between-parties-divisions-within/2012/08/18/f5ee15d4-e31a-11e1-ae7f-d2a13e249eb2_story.html

Infographic (breaking down party subgroups): http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-washington-post---kaiser-family-foundation-poll/2012/08/18/17567726-e98c-11e1-8487-64e4b2a79ba8_graphic.html

Details: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postkaiserpoll_20120805.html

[Likely Voter]

I agree that it is out of date, although the results are in line with other polls from earlier this month. I posted it mostly for the interesting sub group data and the issues data.

for the long term, the 'window shopper' young rebublicans are an issue for the party. Do they soften their stance on social issues to accommodate the next generation? At some point they will have to.

[Likely Voter]

biased sample like you can imagine...

is that a joke or do you have data to point at that shows a bias?

[Likely Voter]

Those are the numbers for all adults and they only show a Dem+9 sample. That is the group that has Obama+12 vs Romney. The RV sample (based on registration % question) are
Dem: 34%, GOP 27%, Ind 33%, or a Dem +7.

Again, where is the bias? 

[Likely Voter]

This poll has a much larger sample size than most polls. It isn't an LV poll so I dont see how they can be biased unless there is evidence they weighted it somehow but I dont see that.


As i noted the most interesting data from this poll was the all adults issue info and the subgroups. It is reasonable to think that 2012 could be a mix between 2008 and 2010 or around D+3 to D+4. So D+7 for RV is not unusual and shouldnt just knee-jerk be ignored (being that RV tend to have more Ds).