MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[R.P. McM]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe & Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

"Scott Jensen wants to ban abortion at the same time that members of his party are engaged in trafficking minors ..."

Yeah, that's just poison in the suburbs.

[R.P. McM]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe and Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

If there ever was one saving grace in MN politics as far as Democrats are concerned over the windy years of the past decade, it was the tireless work of our wonderous and most dear friends over at the state Republican "organization". Maybe they would be kind enough to go bankrupt and get evicted from their HQ a second time, this time a few months closer to the November election!  

They're awful, no question. But one factor I don't think is widely appreciated is that MN Democrats are extremely reliable voters. And the DFL continues to make inroads with college grads. It's why the statewide margins tend to be relatively close, but always in one direction. There just aren't enough outstate voters to compensate for the MSP bloodbath. And in all likelihood, there won't be in 2022.